2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Dolphins at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion last week, but it didn’t translate to a victory despite Miami being favored by five points. Tagovailoa played relatively well, but the defense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

Those expecting Tagovailoa to be better in his second game back could be disappointed. This is an incredibly difficult matchup for Tagovailoa, who had a deer-in-the-headlights look against the Bills back in Week 2 before he even suffered his concussion. Buffalo swarmed him, and he had no chance because his offensive line lost two starters from a year ago. The Bills did a good job of locking down his primary receivers as well.

The only thing that worked for the Dolphins in that game was utilizing De’Von Achane as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bills just clamped down on Kenneth Walker last week, so I wouldn’t expect much from Achane on the ground, especially with the diminished blocking. However, Achane could pick up some nice gains through the air.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen and Amari Cooper haven’t quite developed chemistry yet, but Cooper’s presence has opened everything for the rest of the offense. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are seeing much lighter coverage with the opposition focused on Cooper. That should continue in this game.

James Cook also stands to benefit. The Dolphins are weak to the run, so with the Dolphins worrying about Cooper’s ability to make plays downfield, they won’t be able to focus on Cook as much. Cook rushed for 78 yards on just 11 carries in the prior meeting.

It must be noted that the Dolphins won’t be able to disrupt any of this with their poor pass rush. Already down Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, they lost Zach Sieler last week. If Sieler is out again, Miami won’t have a prayer of rattling Allen.

RECAP: NFL divisional matchups can sometimes be lopsided. This is one such example. The Bills have owned the Dolphins in the Tagovailoa era. They’ve won 18 of the previous 23 meetings. That includes the Week 2 affair in which Tagovailoa suffered a concussion. Even before he exited the game, he looked completely frazzled. I bet the Dolphins, and I never felt so defeated as a bettor. OK, maybe that’s an exaggeration, but it was quite apparent that Miami had no chance, even early in the game.

There’s no way I can back this awfully coached Miami team in this sort of a matchup, so it’s Buffalo or nothing for me. Considering that the Bills already beat the Dolphins, and that they’re coming off a blowout victory across the country, I’m not dying to lay the six, even though it could be argued that the line is a bit short. My calculated spread is Buffalo -7.5, though I can’t ignore that the EPA numbers say that -4 is correct.

I’m going to bet a small amount on the Bills, but there are many other appealing games on the slate.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love that the Bills are trolling the Dolphins. Just take a look at the injury report. Buffalo has pretty much listed everyone on the injury report as practicing fully. After discussing this with Evan on the After Dark Show, I’ve decided to increase my unit count on the Bills.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane’s receiving yardage prop looks great. In three games with Tua Tagovailoa, Achane has gotten 76, 69, and 50 receiving yards, and yet, Achane’s prop is set at just 33.5. The Bills allow a ton of receiving yards to the opposition. The best number is over 33.5 receiving yards -114. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins will be without two starters in their secondary (Jevon Holland, Kader Kohou), which can’t help. Meanwhile, the Bills will have Terrel Bernard back from injury.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Bills -5.5 -120 at FanDuel. This line has pushed to -6.5 in many places, and there are some books that offer -6 -120. FanDuel is giving us a juicy -5.5 -120 line. I like this because the key number of six is so important. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We got duped last night. It seems as though the line movement from last night was a phantom move to get the sharps a better number on the Dolphins. Then again, that could have been a reaction to Amari Cooper being sidelined, but I still feel good about the Bills. You can still get -5.5 -120 at FanDuel, but I’d rather go with -6 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

A revenge spot for the Dolphins, but they’ve been owned by the Bills. Buffalo is coming off a blowout victory.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 18 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.