2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Saints at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I didn’t have hate mail for my picks, so I grabbed some from the NFL Power Rankings page.

I love being called fans of random teams. I swear, I’ve been called a fan of every NFL team over the years, and people have told me that I hate every team over the years as well. I sometimes respond, “I hate every team!”

You heard it here first: If a guy leads the league in “Tuddies” – whatever the hell that means – his team must be better. What great analysis!

We have something from the first guy again:

I suppose it’s not fair to call this “hate mail” because this guy said that I’m comical and “always good for a laugh.” That’s a high compliment, so thank you, Biskit52250!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This spread seems to indicate that Derek Carr will return to action, but we don’t know that for sure. Even if he plays, will he be 100 percent? According to Deepak Chona, MD, who has 123,000 followers on Twitter, Carr is “lean playing,” but there are often “deep ball mechanics impacted upon return from oblique injuries.”

Then again, Carr may not need to throw the ball deep even though the Panthers are incredibly weak to outside receivers. Chris Olave could still have a decent game, but this Carolina defense is historically bad and won’t be able to defend other facets of New Orleans’ offense.

Primarily, the Saints should be able to pound the ball against the Panthers. The offensive line has gotten some reinforcements back from injury, so Alvin Kamara projects well. Perhaps Taysom Hill will score a touchdown.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: We also don’t know which quarterback Carolina will start. Andy Dalton got into a car accident and suffered a thumb injury, so he may not be 100 percent if he plays. So, it’s either a possibly banged-up Dalton or Bryce Young. I’m not sure which one is worse.

Young began last week’s game 5-of-5, which was shocking because he was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. Then, reality set in, and Young didn’t score another point until the very end of the game in garbage time. This is an easier opponent for Young, but it’s still difficult to trust him, especially without Diontae Johnson’s services. Young was horrendous against the Saints during the opening game of the season.

If the Panthers are to move the ball, it’ll be with Chuba Hubbard. The underrated back has put together some quality performances this year, and the Saints have been gashed on the ground in recent games. However, Pete Werner’s return to action last week changes this matchup, so it’s not a slam dunk for Hubbard as it was for Sean Tucker and Javonte Williams in Weeks 6 and 7.

RECAP: This is an impossible game to handicap right now because we don’t know who’s quarterbacking either team. We don’t know if Carr will play, and even if he does, he may not be 100 percent. I never want to back an injured quarterback.

Then again, it’s unclear if Dalton will return from his thumb injury either. Young could get the nod once again, and I have no desire to bet him. If we were getting a healthy Dalton for certain, I might consider Carolina as a possible team to bet against this opponent, but it’s also unclear if he’ll be fully healthy if he takes the field.

I’m currently going to pencil in the Saints, but I may change that as we get some more news. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line moving to -7.5 likely has to do with Derek Carr practicing on a limited basis. Andy Dalton practiced fully on Wednesday, but we still don’t know if Dave Canales will go back to Dalton or will give Bryce Young the nod again. Some injuries to keep tabs on are Marson Lattimore (hamstring) and Tyrann Mathieu (illness), with both players missing Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: I love the Chris Olave over receiving yards. Carolina is utterly atrocious against No. 1 receivers. With Derek Carr returning, that’s only going to help Olave, who had a big game last week without him. The best number is over 67.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Derek Carr and Bryce Young will start for their respective teams. If I knew Carr would be 100 percent, I’d bet on the Saints, but I don’t want to back an injured quarterback. Speaking of injured players, the Saints will be without two cornerbacks, including Marshon Lattimore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not getting to this game, and neither are the sharps. If you want to fade the Panthers once again, the best line is -7 -115 in a few places, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

It took a while, but the money finally came in on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 70% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

Derek Carr is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Derek Carr is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.