2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Texans at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Week 8 Analysis: We’ve been waiting for a week like this for a long time. We’ve had so much bad luck this year, so it was great to have a massive result in Week 8. We got lucky in our big play, but still suffered some bad breaks. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 3 units (win): The special teams nonsense usually goes against us, but the Lions had a huge day in that regard.

Browns, 3 units (win): If only we bet the moneyline in this one! I was confident in Cleveland covering, but I wasn’t too bullish on their chances to pull the outright upset.

Colts, 5 units (win): We lucked out in this game. The Texans were close to kicking the front-door field goal to go up six, but Joe Mixon fumbled to preserve the cover.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): We had the moneyline in this one as well. It felt good to win against Mike McDaniel after all the grief he has caused us this year.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): Here’s where we got unlucky. The Chiefs were up 14 with two minutes to go, but Gardner Minshew got the back-door touchdown. Where was this two years ago when we had Minshew against the Cowboys for our Pick of the Month? Had the Eagles covered the +5.5 in that game, I would have won $50,000 in the Supercontest mini-contest. Instead, I lost $880.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Panthers went up 7-0, but Denver scored 28 unanswered to cover easily.

Giants, 3 units (loss): This was a stupid pick. Although we lost on special teams nonsense, negating the Lions victory, I should have never wagered three units on a garbage team like the Giants.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers can’t be happy to have this matchup in a must-win game. The Texans pressure the quarterback at the eighth-highest clip in the NFL, and Rodgers has seen tons of pressure. The Texans hounded Anthony Richardson last week, and they’ll keep their pass rush going against Rodgers, who is hobbled and may not be able to avoid sacks.

It won’t help Rodgers’ cause that he won’t have Allen Lazard at his disposal. Sure, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are starting on the outside, but the Texans are weakest in the secondary when it comes to defending the slot, which is where Lazard played. Houston has done a good job of clamping down on outside receivers recently, and Rodgers and Adams still haven’t reestablished their chemistry.

The Texans are at their worst while trying to defend the run on this side of the ball. The Jets couldn’t get Breece Hall going on Sunday, so they’ll have to atone for their mistakes in this matchup.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans aren’t the only team in this game that struggles to stop the run. The same can be said of the Jets, who are infamous for allowing huge rushing performances. Joe Mixon has been terrific since returning from injury, and he’ll be difficult to stop. And we know Mixon will get the ball frequently because no one runs it more than Bobby Slowik on early downs.

Mixon will need to be established because Houston’s passing attack has greatly diminished as a result of a new injury. Nico Collins was already out, and now the Texans will be without Stefon Diggs, who got hurt last week. Tank Dell will be the top receiver, which would ordinarily be fine except he’s not 100 percent because he has dealt with an injury and a gun shot earlier this season. John Metchie will step in as the second option.

There’s no guarantee C.J. Stroud will even be able to deliver the ball to Dell and Metchie. His blocking hasn’t been as good this year, so it’s very crucial that Mixon is established to keep Stroud out of third-and-long situations.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Texans may seem like the better team because the Jets have been a complete mess recently. They lost to the Patriots, for crying out loud. Their blocking is a problem, while most of the team doesn’t appear to have any chemistry. The poor coaching is an issue as well.

However, Houston has its own issues. The team is down multiple receivers, which presents a big problem against the Jets’ secondary. I’m also not a fan of Houston’s offensive play-calling.

The coaching is the biggest factor though. The Jets have a rookie interim head coach tasked with preparing his team against a tough opponent on just three days. That seems like an incredibly difficult hurdle to overcome, so I will be on Houston.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Texans are a massive public dog. I’m glad I don’t have the urge to bet them, but I would if I had to choose a side. The Jets are still down their top three safeties, as well as Alijah Vera-Tucker and C.J. Mosley. They’re also poorly coached by men who will have to prepare them on just three days of rest.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love both running backs to go over. Both run defenses stink, and both teams love giving the ball to their primary backs. Of the two, Breece Hall has the lower number, so I will be betting him primarily. The best number is over 65.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss Hall over 65.5 rushing yards with Joe Mixon over 81.5 rushing yards, C.J. Stroud over 8.5 rushing yards, and Braelon Allen under 20.5 rushing yards. Stroud is missing his top two receivers against a great Jets secondary, so he probably knows that he’ll have to do some damage with his legs. As for Allen, he was given 12 carries last week, but that was just to rest Hall for this game. He’ll be back to 3-5 carries in this contest. This $25 parlay is boosted 30 percent on FanDuel, and it pays $323.94. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is throwing tons of money on the Texans like this is the easiest bet in the world. The sharps are on the Jets. I get why – the Jets have been unlucky this year, while Houston is overrated – but I worry about the Jets’ interim head coach preparing his team on just three days. I think the public is correct this time, and thanks to the sharps, we have a viable +3 (-125) available at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

The Texans are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 86% (268,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-93 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-25 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Clear, 75 degrees. Light wind.