2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Colts at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings suffered a devastating loss last Thursday. Sure, they fell to the Rams, but the primary focus was on Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending injury. This was crushing for Minnesota, as Darrisaw is one of the top left tackles in the NFL. I’d say he’ll sorely be missed, but he was already missed in the game versus the Rams when Sam Darnold was pressured heavily from the blind side.

The Colts should be able to get to Darnold, which is very problematic for the Vikings. Darnold struggles more than most quarterback with pressure, so it’s bad timing for him that DeForest Buckner will be playing in his second game back from injury. Buckner occupies the interior of the line of scrimmage, but his presence will help the edge rushers get home. Thus, it’ll be more difficult than usual for Darnold to connect with Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota’s main hope of moving the chains in this game will be via Aaron Jones. Despite Buckner’s return to action, Indianapolis still struggles against the run. Joe Mixon just trampled them, and Jones could do the same.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jonathan Taylor is another talented Colts player who returned to action last week. Taylor, however, doesn’t project as well as Buckner for this game. The Vikings are second against the run in terms of adjusted EPA, so he may not have much running room.

If this is true, then it would have been very difficult for Indianapolis to score had they kept Anthony Richardson as the starter. I’m burying the lede here, but Richardson was benched in favor of Joe Flacco. This was the correct move, as Richardson has regressed tremendously, seemingly getting worse each week. He was 10-of-32 last week, which is just ridiculous. His teammates dropped some passes, but still. There was even one moment where Richardson checked out of the game. At the time, the announcers believed he was injured, but he told the media that he was tired. Yes, this is Indianapolis’ starting quarterback.

And it was only going to get worse for Richardson because this was probably the worst matchup he’d see all year. Brian Flores calls blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Richardson is HORRIBLE against the blitz. I needed to capitalize that word to stress how bad he is against the blitz. When blitzed this year, Richardson is 10-of-24 for 158 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He has a 29.4 completion percentage and a turnover-worthy percentage of 6.8. By comparison, Flacco’s completion percentage and turnover-worthy percentage are 51.6 and 2.8, respectively. Flacco gives the Colts a good chance of moving the chains, whereas the Colts would have been dead with Richardson.

RECAP: It’s astonishing how much one injury can change things. Darrisaw’s season-ending injury was a colossal loss for the Vikings. I would have considered them in this matchup if Darrisaw were slated to play, but it’s quite apparent that Minnesota won’t be nearly as offensively potent without their stellar left tackle.

The Colts already looked appealing because of Darrisaw’s absence. They seem even better now in the wake of Richardson’s benching. Flores is great at befuddling raw quarterbacks with his creative blitz schemes. I mentioned Richardson’s horrible numbers versus the blitz earlier, so I wanted no part of Indianapolis with Richardson at quarterback.

Things are much different with Flacco. Not only is Flacco better in this matchup; the Colts will have added motivation. Whenever a team fires a coach or benches a quarterback, they play much harder because other players don’t want fingers pointed at them.

Indianapolis is the obvious play. We get a motivated team against an overrated opponent missing its top lineman. The Colts have also kept every game to within six this year, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The only noteworthy thing on the injury report is that Blake Cashman was DNP in Wednesday’s practice. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs also missed practice on Wednesday, but this has been a trend for them over the weeks.

SATURDAY NOTES: No new surprises on the injury report. Blake Cashman has been ruled out, which is great for the Colts because Minnesota’s defense is so much worse without him.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Josh Downs is our primary bet in this game. The Vikings are weaker over the middle of the field with Blake Cashman sidelined, and Downs has been unlocked because of the Anthony Richardson benching. The best number is over 61.5 receiving yards -120 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss in Downs over 66.5 receiving yards on FanDuel, which has another 30-percent odds boost, and I’m going to do a same-game parlay with both running backs over 74.5, and Sam Darnold under 249.5 passing yards. Both teams have shown a weakness to the run lately, especially with Cashman sidelined for Minnesota. And with Christian Darrisaw sidelined, Darnold’s passing numbers could be suppressed. This $25 parlay pays $371.65 with a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I’m still very high on the Colts, but I’m hoping to get a viable +6 line somewhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We got our +6 line. In fact, you can find one everywhere. There’s some slight sharp action on the Vikings, but I still love the Colts. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts have benched their quarterback, so they’ll be playing extra hard this week.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -6.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public still believes in the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (186,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 45-37 ATS at home since 2014 (14-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.