2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Cardinals at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s impossible to handicap this game as I’m writing this on Tuesday afternoon. Tua Tagovailoa has a chance to return to action this week, but that’s not a guarantee. And we don’t even know who will start if it’s not Tagovailoa. Tyler Huntley was another quarterback of ours who got hurt last week. If Huntley is sidelined, we may get Tim Boyle, who is the worst quarterback I’ve ever seen, and that’s not an exaggeration. Boyle forgot what down it was on the final drive against Indianapolis. Again, not an exaggeration.

Tagovailoa would theoretically be able to move the chains against a sorry Arizona defense, but it’s truly unclear how he’ll perform off his first game following a concussion. There’s a very checkered history of quarterbacks returning from a concussion, and it’s not like Tagovailoa will be coached well in the process. Mike “The Moron” McDaniel will likely continue to design plays for Alec Ingold while completely ignoring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins should at least be able to run the ball on the Cardinals. Arizona has been poor against the run, ranking 24th in that department. I don’t know how the Cardinals kept J.K. Dobbins in check on Monday night, but I don’t think they’ll have similar success again this week, provided that McDaniel doesn’t feed the ball to Ingold too often.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Dolphins also happen to be in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping the run. They’re slightly better than the Cardinals, ranking 19th. However, it’s important to note the caliber of running back they’ve battled thus far. Outside of James Cook and Tony Pollard, who have gashed them, the opposing rushers have been Travis Etienne, Zach Charbonnet, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tyler Goodson.

James Conner is better than all of them, as the Dolphins haven’t come close to facing an elite rusher yet. Conner is coming off a monster game, so I suspect that he’ll be able to pick up where he left off Monday night.

Conner’s great running will make life easier for Kyler Murray, who doesn’t have the easiest matchup. While the Dolphins have struggled against the run, they’ve been very solid against the pass. It’s not like the Cardinals have great personnel for Murray to overcome this challenging opponent.

RECAP: We have to wait on Tagovailoa’s status to properly handicap this game. As it stands now, I will be looking to bet Arizona heavily if Tagovailoa returns. I’ll be on Miami if Huntley starts. And I will be backing Arizona at a lesser amount if it’s Boyle.

Here’s the rundown:

Tagovailoa starts: There’s a long track record of quarterbacks coming off concussions struggling in their first game back to action. Many take it for granted that quarterbacks will be fine off concussions, but that hasn’t been the case. Plus, Miami players may have a letdown factor of sorts knowing that their quarterback has returned. The Dolphins weren’t even playing well with Tagovailoa to begin the year, so why would that suddenly change?

Huntley starts: I assume the Dolphins will be a home underdog. Backing quality reserve quarterbacks against mid-tier or bottom-level defenses is often a winning strategy. Plus, the Cardinals will be coming off a short work week following a win as an underdog, which is generally a terrible spot for Murray.

Boyle starts: Boyle is one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. He should be faded at every opportunity.

I’ll have an exact unit count once we have the news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to Miami -3.5 with the thought that Tua Tagovailoa has a better chance of returning to action. This is music to my ears because I’ll like the Cardinals even more at +3.5 if Tagovailoa is announced as the starter. PLAYER PROP: Did you see what Will Dissly did to the Cardinals on Monday night? Arizona has had issues against tight ends, so I like the Jonnu Smith over 27.5 receiving yards. The best number is over 27.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: On Thursday’s picks show (video posted below), Andy Iskoe made a great point about the Cardinals going through a very difficult schedule thus far. Despite this, they’re 3-4, and they’ve been blown out only twice. It could be argued that this is Arizona’s easiest opponent thus far except for the Rams in Week 8. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa will be back, but the Dolphins weren’t playing well with him earlier in the year. Plus, Tyreek Hill was downgraded every day in practice. He missed Friday’s practice with a foot injury, so he may not play, and even if he does, he might not be 100 percent. I love the Cardinals at +4.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyreek Hill will play, but the Dolphins will be down a couple of defenders in Zach Sieler and Kader Kohou. I still love the Cardinals, though the sharps took Miami at -3.5. I’m going to bet the moneyline here as well, with the best number being +184 at Bookmaker, which has the best Arizona line at +4 -103. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Cardinals are coming off an upset victory on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is 17-9 ATS as an underdog.

Dolphins are 32-46 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.