2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Jets at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets appeared to be on the way to an offensive explosion last week. They scored 15 points in the first quarter-and-half and were driving prior to halftime to score more when Aaron Rodgers threw a ghastly interception. The Steelers capitalized, which flipped the game completely. New York didn’t score a single point the rest of the way.

Rodgers was far from the only player who deserved blame, as Garrett Wilson sabotaged the potential victory with a dropped pass turned into an interception. All of these issues could go away in this game, however, as the Patriots have a poor secondary that hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year. Rodgers, having an extra week with Davante Adams, should be able to get going against this poor defense.

The Jets will be at their best utilizing Breece Hall. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, as the entire world saw last week when they couldn’t get off the field against Tank Bigsby.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Jets completely dominated the Patriots in their prior matchup. New England scored only three points while generating just 139 yards of offense. The blocking was the primary culprit, as Jacoby Brissett didn’t have a chance behind his line.

Drake Maye has been an upgrade over Brissett, though he’s made plenty of rookie mistakes. The Jets should be able to capitalize on those, assuming their injured cornerbacks are able to play. Joining them will be Haason Reddick, who has finally ended his holdout.

The only chance the Patriots have of moving the chains is establishing Rhamondre Stevenson and then having Maye scramble for big gains. The Jets have a poor run defense, but they clamped down on Stevenson back in Week 3 because they played closer to the line of scrimmage. Also, Stevenson obviously won’t be a factor if the Jets jump out to a big lead.

RECAP: The Jets would usually be a big play in a situation like this. They’re coming off four consecutive losses, including a blowout defeat in the last game. They’re 2-5. They have to win this game.

However, as the late, great Dave Cokin once said, “If a team needs to win, they’re probably not very good in the first place.” There’s something terribly wrong with the Jets. They have no chemistry, and they’re coached poorly. They also have a game coming up against the Texans in four days. Plus, they beat the Patriots already, so they may take this game for granted.

So, am I backing the Patriots? No thanks. They are utterly atrocious. Maye has made their offense better, but that’s not nearly enough. Unless they get lucky with some turnovers or special teams plays, I don’t think they can be competitive with a team that is much better than them. In fact, I’m so down on the Patriots that I’m still going to bet the Jets despite the concerns I have with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alijah Vera-Tucker missed Wednesday’s practice, which is not a good sign. The Jets are still just way too strong compared to the lowly Patriots.

PLAYER PROPS: Tyler Conklin destroyed the Patriots in the first meeting. With Allen Lazard banged up, Conklin may do all the work over the middle of the field against a New England team that can’t stop tight ends. The best number is over 28.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve done a 180 on this game. I don’t like seeing that Aaron Rodgers is dealing with both ankle and hamstring injuries, and I don’t like that the Jets have cluster injuries at safety with the top three players at the position all out for them. I’m going to side with the Patriots for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no interest from me here, and the sharps haven’t touched this game either. The best line is +7 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Jets play on Thursday night, but they need a win.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.

Computer Model: Jets -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Plenty of action on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 80% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Patriots have won 36 of the last 44 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-92 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-24 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 50 degrees. Light wind.