2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Panthers at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 6: Bombs Away! Read about how I was almost killed at the Cosmopolitan.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos scored 33 points against the Saints, and yet Bo Nix didn’t perform well. He missed open receivers and was fortunate to have some interceptions that were dropped. He was bailed out by Javonte Williams and the offensive line.

It’ll be difficult for Nix to struggle in this game because the Panthers might have the worst defense we’ve ever seen. I find this amazing: Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate, yet it blitzes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. So, the Panthers bring extra pass rushers at a top-10 rate in the NFL, and yet they still can’t get to the quarterback. That’s beyond inept. Nix will have all the time in the world to find his receivers.

Nix may not even have to throw all that much. Williams should be able to pick up where he left off against New Orleans. The Panthers can’t stop the run at all, so Williams will have a massive showing.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have been at least able to move the ball ever since they went to Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle was terrific in his first start, but has progressively gotten worse. He’s had some head-scratching interceptions recently, so if he’s going to throw those, Carolina might as well go back to Bryce Young.

Dalton won’t have much success in this matchup. The Broncos pressure the quarterback at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Carolina’s offensive line has not been the same since Taylor Moton and Austin Corbett went down with injuries. Denver also has Patrick Surtain II to erase Diontae Johnson.

It would be nice for Dalton if he could hand the ball off to Chuba Hubbard reliably, but that won’t even be possible. Denver is also excellent against the run. The only area in which the Broncos struggle on this side of the ball is defending tight ends, but it’s not like the Panthers are strong in that area.

RECAP: Everything screams that the Panthers should be a huge play. I like the idea of fading the Broncos off a blowout win on national TV. I like the idea of betting the Panthers coming off an embarrassing defeat against Marcus Mariota. I like the idea of getting more than a touchdown against a team that is very overrated. I like the idea of obtaining great line value because the advance spread was +4.5. I like the idea of going against a Denver team that could be looking ahead to its battle against Baltimore next week.

And yet, I can’t do it. I just can’t do it. The Panthers are historically terrible. They might have the worst defense in NFL history, while their offense could be just as bad if the team goes back to Young.

I can’t even side with the Panthers for office pool purposes. That’s how bad they are. I wish the Broncos were in a better spot so we could fade Carolina.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Dalton got into a car accident. Luckily, he’s OK, but that means Bryce Young will start. Young’s performance in this game may feel like a car accident. I’m going to bet the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS: Courtland Sutton had a doughnut in his last game. There could be a squeaky-wheel narrative in this game, and the matchup lines up with that. The Panthers are atrocious to No. 1 receivers. The best number on Sutton is over 43.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if Bryce Young starting this game was bad enough, the Panthers won’t have Diontae Johnson either. Carolina may get Josey Jewell and Taylor Moton back from injury, but this team seems to be too far gone to be competitive.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Broncos still seem like a great play. The Panthers have some injury questions, which will make the inactives list interesting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers will have Taylor Moton and Josey Jewell back, but they’re still in very rough shape. There’s some sharp action coming in on Denver. The best line is -12.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

Sandwich situation. The Broncos are coming off a blowout win on national TV. Next week, they play Baltimore.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Chance of rain, 75 degrees. Light wind.