2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Chiefs at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Chiefs keep on winning despite losing offensive play-makers every single week. They were even able to establish JuJu Smith-Schuster a few weeks ago against the Saints, and yet he suffered an injury last week. He won’t be available for this contest.

I suspect that Mahomes will lean heavily on his rushing attack. And why not? The Raiders are in the bottom half of the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, so Hunt should do well.

Hunt should allow Mahomes to have easier passing situations. He’ll want to connect mostly to his tight ends, but the Raiders have defended tight ends well this year, so something will have to give.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raider defense allowed 20 points according to the scoreboard last week, but the real number was zero because all 20 of the Rams’ points came via Gardner Minshew turnovers. Minshew was a complete mess, throwing interceptions at almost every opportunity until late in the game.

Minshew didn’t even have a difficult matchup last week. This one will be much tougher. The Rams have a middling pass rush, while the Chiefs own the league’s fifth-highest pressure rate. Minshew self-destructs when pressured heavily, and he’ll certainly see plenty of heat in this contest.

Minshew won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either because Kansas City is stout against the run. There is some hope, however, given that the Chiefs are very weak to tight ends. Brock Bowers could have a strong performance as a result, though there’s a chance Steve Spagnuolo will attempt to double team him, which will be possible if Jakobi Meyers doesn’t return to action.

RECAP: I’ll be shocked if we get Kansas City’s best effort in this game. The Chiefs are coming off a huge win against the 49ers in their Super Bowl rematch. After this game against the pathetic Raiders, they have to play on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs are akin to a cat playing with its food. We’ll see nonsense from them in this game as they experiment with some plays and formations. And yet, they still may cover because the Raiders are that bad. I’d maybe have some interest in them if O’Connell were starting, but Minshew is a turnover machine. I’ve written repeatedly that backup quarterbacks should be aggressively faded versus elite defenses, and that applies in this game.

If you were to tell me that the Chiefs would try their hardest in this game, I’d bet them heavily. However, I just don’t think we’ll see them playing their hardest, though it’s possible that the Raiders will have their attention after beating them on Christmas last year. I’m fine with two or three units on Kansas City, but nothing more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Evan Daniel of Tuesday’s picks show pointed out to me that the Chiefs may have motivation in this game. The Raiders made fun of Patrick Mahomes using a Kermit the Frog puppet to make fun of Mahomes. When asked about it, Mahomes said that he would take care of it in due time. The Chiefs look much better knowing that. Plus, the DeAndre Hopkins trade helps.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends, but the fear I have with backing Brock Bowers is that Steve Spagnulo will double team him. Spagnulo is infamous for double teaming the opponent’s top player. If Davante Adams were still on the team, I’d love Bowers in this spot, but I can’t back him. I won’t have a prop bet for this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Maxx Crosby will play, while Jakobi Meyers has a shot to return this week after a full practice on Friday. Dylan Parham is out, however. The Chiefs still look good.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps have taken the Raiders from +10 to +8.5. I still like the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet the Raiders from +10 to +8.5, but some money has come back on Kansas City at -8.5. The best line is -9 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chiefs may relax in this game unless they have Christmas revenge on their mind.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.

Computer Model: Chiefs -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 88% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 16 of the last 19 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 90-24 SU, 63-49 ATS (49-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Raiders are 19-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.