2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Falcons at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s pretty wild how things can change so quickly. If I had written up this game prior to Monday night, I would have discussed how great of a matchup the Buccaneers had on this side of the ball. The Falcons have a poor group of cornerbacks outside of A.J. Terrell, and there is no pass rush to speak of, so that would have given the Buccaneers a great opportunity to move the ball with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Of course, that’s not the case anymore. Evans injured his balky hamstring while dropping a touchdown in the opening half. Given that he’ll be trying to recover off a short work week, it’s likely that he won’t be able to play in this contest. Godwin, meanwhile, could be done for the year. The Buccaneers now have cluster injuries at their top position of strength, so they’ll have to rely on Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard to attack Atlanta’s corners. That won’t work so well.

The Buccaneers will have a better chance of running the ball. Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker were very impressive against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, while Rachaad White is back from injury to serve as a receiver out of the backfield. The Falcons can’t stop the run, but they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to worry about Evans and Godwin beating them.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It would be nice for the Buccaneers if their defense could carry them while both Evans and Godwin are sidelined, but we just saw Tampa Bay surrender 41 points to the Ravens, as it was completely incapable of getting off the field. Two weeks prior to that, Kirk Cousins torched the Buccaneers for 500 yards.

The Buccaneers looked pathetic trying to stop Baltimore’s aerial assault without Jamel Dean. The top cornerback landed on injured reserve, and yet he was on the field when Cousins threw for 500 yards.

Tampa Bay is much better against the run than the pass, but it won’t matter because it won’t be able to contain Cousins. The Buccaneers blitz often – fourth-highest clip in the NFL – but Cousins has handled the blitz well this year, seeing an increase in big-time throw percentage and a sharp decline in turnover-worthy plays.

RECAP: Assuming Evans is out, I’ll be on the Falcons. The Buccaneers have cluster injuries at their top position of strength, and they won’t be able to fully address the situation because they’ll be operating on short rest.

I hate that we’re getting no line value. The Buccaneers were -2.5 on the advance spread, but they’re now +2.5. I like to fade these sorts of line moves, but perhaps this is just sticker shock to me because Evans and Godwin both being sidelined warrants this sort of line shift.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Buccaneers, they were also missing Bucky Irving in Wednesday’s practice. This team is a complete mess right now.

PLAYER PROPS: I talked about how Kyle Pitts has quiety increased his production in recent weeks. Pitts has been on fire lately, and I think he’ll continue to be great against the Buccaneers, who can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 40.5 receiving yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers have cluster injuries – not just at receiver, but also at cornerback with Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith sidelined. This seems perilous against Atlanta’s passing offense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why, but the sharps are all over the Buccaneers. Perhaps it’s because Justin Simmons will be out for an already-poor Atlanta defense. I’m getting bad vibes here, so I’m going to zero units on the Falcons. If you still want to bet them, the best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Decent lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Team is 137-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-73 ATS at home in the previous 114 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-32 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.