2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Giants at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where tonight, the New York Stupid Giants take on the Poopsburgh Poopers! I’m sorry for cursing Mother, but I mean business here! Poopsburgh is the crappiest city in Pennsylvania, especially when compared to my great city of Philadelphia, and the Giants hurt your soul because they are stupid and terrible compared to my Philadelphia Eagles, SO THE TIME HAS COME FOR ME TO DESTROY BOTH TEAMS ON THE FIELD! WHAT SAY YOU, GUYS!? ARE YOU WITH ME! TO BATTLE!!!

Emmitt: Thanks, Palom. You say that the Giant sold your sold. That is how I feel against the Giant. He always losted to me when I was the quarterback of the Cowboy. He always easy to run against and I always say to him that he so embarrassment that his mother probably going to disbone him.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m glad you’re in agreement that these teams need to be destroyed. I also agree that it’s scary at the thought of Mother disboning me. I always think she might do it if I score poorly on her pop quiz in home school class, or if I spill apple juice again during lunch.

Tollefson: Reilly, you are such a wuss. If just had but a single female slave, you wouldn’t have to worry about any apple juice spills. When I spill my apple juice during your mother’s online Zoom classes, I have my naked female slaves clean it up for me, pronto. If they don’t get to it in a hurry, I’ll put them in a body bag!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother would never let a woman clean things up for me unless it’s Mother herself because she says that other women would try to corrupt her delicate little flower who has yet to blossom at the age of 73. Speaking of women who can’t touch me, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Just got word that there will be a hurricane that will delay the start of this game by 30 minutes. It may seem sunny now, but the hurricane is coming, believe me. I’m joined tonight by Joe Biden. I thought I was going to be interviewing foreign leaders, but we have our domestic leader here now! President Biden, what brings you to the stadium tonight?

Joe Biden: Hi, I’m George Biden and I’m running for the- you know- the thing- I just want some NFL games, man. The other guy is trying to make it so there are no other games. We don’t want games. I mean, we do want games. Games are fun, especially when you play- the uhh- games. The other guy doesn’t want fun. You know, fun is the thing you do when you watch games. Take little Sally there. She has fun playing games. And I’m going to have fun with Ashley in the shower. I mean, I tripped my dog in the shower. The dog got the injury. And I’m cleaning up spaghetti sauce on aisle four, heh heh heh.

Charissa Thompson: I wasn’t paying attention, but if you’re going to the grocery store, please buy some spaghetti sauce for me, and I’ll pay you back. You can trust me. But President Biden, I’m confused as to why you’re vying for NFL games when NFL games are already in America.

Joe Biden: The games are here, but they’re here. They’re the games, man. And the other guy doesn’t like games. But we’re not the other guy. If the other guy doesn’t like games, then we’ll games the other guy. I mean we beat the other guy. That’s what we’ll do. Reminds me of when I was a lifeguard by the pool, and I said, “Esther, wear a swimming cap,” and Esther wouldn’t and he challenge me to a duel, and the guy running the pool, he was a roach just like Esther, he told me to grab a chain and meet Esther in the parking lot, and Esther was surrounded by Toucan Sam and Chef Boyardee. He was running with some mean guys. I said, “I apologize,” and he said, “You apologize?” And I said, “I apologize,” and the gates were backward back then, back when they’d kick your teeth to the curb. I lost my teeth a long time ago, back when I was running for the thing- you know- the thing- and then there was ice cream. I said I’ll take a double scoop of choco choco chip from the clown holding the ice cream. I gave my money to the clown, and I came back with a piece of toast. And that’s better than what the other guy came back with.

Reilly: Hey President Bident, what you said makes a lot of sense. We need to stop the other guy. And the other guy is Daniel Jones. We need to put him on death row even if there’s proof of his innocence, and we need to use him as slave labor to clean up forest fires. President Camel Toe, you have experience doing this, right?

Kamala Harris: In the last four years, I have been the vice president of the United States. And Trump has been running for the last four years after he was president. When you take my four years as president, and Trump’s four years as running for president, you get four years, and four years. And four years and four years is equal because it’s the same number of years. Because when you have four, and you also have four, you have four, and four, which is the same because four is four.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, is pretending to be comparing numbers, because all she can do is compare because, frankly, she doesn’t know any numbers, not even one, two, or three, but Trump knows all the numbers, he can count to 10, believe me, no one knows the numbers like Trump, especially Kamala, who doesn’t know any numbers, but she should know a number, and that number is zero, even though it’s an absence of a number, but Kamala should know zero because not only is she a total zero, but she also had zero delegates before she stole the nomination from Sleepy Joe, who sounded extra sleepy today, but way sharper than Kamala, who is a total zero and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, IF YOU WANTED A BETTER INSULT, YOU COULD HAVE CALLED KAMALA AN IMAGINARY NUMBER. MY FRIEND, A FOAM NOODLE WITH EARS FOR BRAINS, IS IMAGINARY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! It’s time for battle. I’ve got my water gun and rocket launcher to destroy both Daniel Jones and the soul-sucking Giants, and the Poopsburgh Steelers. New Daddy, let’s go to war!

Jay Cutler: Hold on, I’m going to take a three-hour nap.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, the game will be over by then! We need to make these guys pay with the rocket launcher I bought with my allowance!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about weapons of war, Kevin. You mentioned rocket launchers, Kevin. What a great start, Kevin. How about grenades, Kevin? Let’s move on to tanks, Kevin. What do you think about bayonets, Kevin? Care to share about chemical weapons, Kevin? And by chemical weapons, I also mean your farts, Kevin, which-

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO DESTROY YOU WITH MY FARTS AND ROCKET LAUNCHER AFTER I’M DONE WITH DANIEL JONES AND POOPSBURGH! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’m not sure what to make of Russell Wilson. The long-time Seahawk began the Sunday night game slowly, but caught fire as the evening progressed. By the end, he was torching the Jets mercilessly with his contested moon balls to George Pickens.

Given that Wilson was woeful for two years under different coaches in Denver, there’s a good chance that this was all a fluke. The Jets were missing multiple cornerbacks even before Sauce Gardner got knocked out with an injury. Gardner returned, but may not have been 100 percent. The Giants are capable of playing better against aerial attacks, thanks mostly to their talented pass rush. The Jets couldn’t get to Wilson, but I have to believe the Giants will be able to do so, given that the Steelers are down three offensive linemen.

I don’t expect much out of Najee Harris either. Harris did well against the Jets, who routinely struggle against the rush. The Giants can play the run better despite what we saw out of Saquon Barkley in last week’s revenge game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Both pass rushes will be live in this game. The Steelers actually don’t have a great pressure rate (20th) despite T.J. Watt’s presence, but the Giants’ offensive line took a big hit with Andrew Thomas being lost for the year. It’s safe to say that Watt will win his matchup and pressure Jones heavily. This is not good news for Jones, who took eight sacks last week.

Thomas’ absence really hurts the Giants offense. When Thomas was protecting Jones’ blind side, Jones had enough time in the pocket to find Malik Nabers deep downfield. That’s not the case any longer, which is why Nabers’ stats were suppressed for the first time all year last week. The Steelers have allowed some big games to opposing WR1s, however.

The Giants don’t have a strong running game either. Tyrone Tracy has shown some big-play ability, but Thomas’ injury has ruined this area for New York as well.

RECAP: When I saw the advance spread on this game, I thought it was way too high. Pittsburgh was -4, but I made the line -1. I considered the Steelers and Giants to be ranked evenly. I give teams one point for being at home in most cases, so that’s how I got to -1. If I was correct, that would have given us great value with the Giants.

Now, we’re getting even better value. Because the Giants were blown out against the Eagles, and because the Steelers crushed the Jets on national TV, this line went up 2.5 points through the key number of six.

I know that the Giants are worse with Thomas sidelined, and Pittsburgh might be better with Wilson. I’ve adjusted my numbers, but I’m still shy of the line. My projected spread is now Pittsburgh -3.5 The EPA figures say this line should be -1.

The Giants look great in this spot. They were humiliated, so they’ll be playing their best. Conversely, the Steelers have been a great fade under Tomlin after blowout defeats. Following wins of 14-plus, Tomlin’s teams have been 15-27 against the spread as favorites the following week. Tomlin is often a poor bet to win by margin as a large favorite anyway.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no practice report yet, so I don’t really have anything new to say about this game. The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brian Burns was downgraded in Friday’s practice, which is not good news. We’ll have to see his status on Saturday evening.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps took the Giants down from +6.5 to +6. Unfortunately Jermaine Eluemunor may not play in this game, which would take down my unit count to two.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We’re still awaiting the Jermaine Eluemunor injury update. It may seem silly to wait for him, but if he doesn’t play, the Giants will have cluster injuries on their offensive line against T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. I won’t be betting the Giants if he’s out, but if he plays, I’ll certainly have plenty of interest.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Giants allow lots of receiving yardage to running backs. Jaylen Warren is the Steelers’ receiving back, so I like him to go over 12.5 -120, which you can find at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to toss in the Warren receiving yards prop on FanDuel. The yardage is 13.5, but we’re using FanDuel because they have a 30-percent odds boost. The other legs in the parlay are the overs on the two tight ends (Pat Freiermuth, 27.5; Theo Johnson 12.5) because it’s still National Tight End Day. I also like Wan’Dale Robinson over 4.5 receptions because the leaky Giants offensive line will force Daniel Jones to throw short. This $25 parlay pays $311.07 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jermaine Eluemunor is active, so we can bet the Giants. I’m going to be on them for three units. The sharps took New York at +6.5, but not at anything less than that. The best line is +6 -105 available at Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

Steelers coming off a blowout win in prime time. Giants coming off a blowout loss.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Why would anyone bet the Giants after what they just saw?

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 84% (228,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 19 instances.

Russell Wilson is 25-19 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Steeers -6.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 58 degrees. Light wind.