2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Ravens at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 13-14 ATS through six weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins -10

Bills -9.5

Eagles -3

Chiefs +2.5

Bengals -5.5

Lions +1.5

Ravens -4

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This is truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides are now 21-14 on the year, as sportsbooks have taken a huge beating lately.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -10.5

Packers -4.5

Steelers -6.5

Ravens -10

Cardinals +3

Texans -6

If you’ve parlayed all the publicly backed teams the past two weeks, you’re doing very well for yourself right now. Will this continue?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson was one of the three quarterbacks we lost last week. There would have been an upgrade to Jameis Winston, but the Browns foolishly decided to make Dorian Thompson-Robinson the No. 2 quarterback for the first time all year. We truly can’t catch a break.

It’s unknown who will start for the Browns this week. Winston will have a chance to move the chains because he’s capable of delivering the ball to his play-makers. David Njoku is finally healthy, while Jerry Jeudy has talent (and hands of stone). There’s also Cedric Tillman, who did well last week. Losing Amari Cooper hurts, but the Browns can have some semblance of an offense, especially with Nick Chubb drawing attention out of the backfield.

Thompson-Robinson, conversely, will be a disaster. He won’t be able to expose Baltimore’s poor cornerbacks like Winston can. He couldn’t even complete half of his passes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL last week. He can run around, but that is not a sustainable method of attack if there’s no downfield passing threat.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens also saw a major player of theirs suffer an injury last week. Zay Flowers hurt his ankle in the opening quarter against the Buccaneers. Flowers returned to action, but was sparingly used as a decoy.

If Flowers isn’t 100 percent, that could hurt Baltimore’s chances of consistently moving the chains in this game. The Browns stop the ran very well – they just limited Saquon Barkley two weeks ago – so Jackson will handle everything himself. The Browns have been weak to No. 1 receivers, but they won’t have to worry about that if Flowers is limited or sidelined.

The Browns have done extremely well in other regards on this side of the ball. They’ve clamped down on tight ends extremely well, so I wouldn’t count on Mark Andrews scoring two touchdowns again.

RECAP: How I handicap this game will depend on which quarterback the Browns will start. If it’s Winston, I will definitely be on the Browns for several units. Winston is a better quarterback than Watson, and he gives Cleveland a chance to be competitive. This spread is way too high if Winston starts; I made this line Baltimore -5, while the EPA numbers say it should be Baltimore -3.5. A -10 line is absurd. The Ravens are a good team, but they’re not that good. They can’t pass protect or stop aerial attacks. Their defensive EPA is 23rd. There’s no way a team, playing on short rest, with a 23rd-ranked defense, should be a nine-point road favorite versus a team with a competent quarterback.

Conversely, if the Browns give Thompson-Robinson the nod, I’ll be on Baltimore. Thompson-Robinson is a complete disaster, and I imagine the Cleveland players know that. We might just see the Browns give up because they’ll know that the coaching staff is not putting their team in the best position to win.

Once the announcement is made, I’ll have my finalized pick and unit count. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jameis Winston will start, which makes the Browns a decent play for me. The Ravens have a poor defense, and they’re coming off a short work week. At the very least, they’ll be in a situation where they could easily surrender a back-door cover. It helps Cleveland’s cause that Zay Flowers missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: David Njoku is now the No. 1 receiver on the Browns in the wake of the Amari Cooper trade. Njoku had 10 catches for 76 yards last week, and this is an easier matchup for him. The best number is over 52.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some injury updates: Zay Flowers is questionable after going DNP-DNP-limited this week, while Marlon Humphrey is out. For the Browns, Jedrick Wills will be sidelined, but Wyatt Teller should return after having a full practice on Friday. I still like the Browns quite a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills is out, but Wyatt Teller is back. The sharps are all over the Browns. They’ve dragged this line down to +7.5 in most places, but you can find +8 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens are coming off a national TV blowout win.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -9.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 86% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 32 meetings (Road Team has covered 18 of the last 27 non-pushes).

John Harbaugh is 15-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Light wind.