2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Bears at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels barely played last week before being pulled due to a rib injury. He threw just two passes before exiting. Everyone said he was OK, but the coaching staff called him “week to week.” If that diagnosis is true, then it seems unlikely that Daniels will be able to play in this game.

Marcus Mariota did a terrific job stepping in for Daniels last week, but it must be noted that he did so against the sorry Panthers. Carolina has the worst defense anyone has ever seen on a professional level, so it can’t be shocking that Mariota misfired just five times last week. Mariota’s matchup will be much tougher this time. While the Panthers are dead last in pressure rate, the Bears generate pressure at the sixth-highest clip in the league. The Redskins have offensive line issues, so Mariota will be rattled, and Kliff Kingsbury will miss Daniels’ mobility.

The Bears aren’t as strong against the run. The Redskins might have some success with Brian Robinson, but Chicago might be able to stack the box because it won’t be afraid of Mariota’s passing ability.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While the Bears are weak to the run, the Redskins might be even worse in that department. I say “might” because the Redskins have held huge leads against bad teams who haven’t been able to expose their ground defense. The Bears should be able to with D’Andre Swift, who has been much better in recent weeks after a horrendous start to the season.

Swift’s running and receiving will make things much easier for Caleb Williams. The one good thing the Redskins do on this side of the ball is generate pressure on the quarterback. Again, this might be a byproduct of having a massive lead all the time, so I suspect Williams won’t be hounded too often. Plus, he can use his mobility to escape from any pass rushers.

Assuming Williams has time to throw, the Bears should be able to move the chains consistently. The Redskins have some major problems in the secondary, which will be exposed against Chicago’s very talented receiving corps.

RECAP: In my previous capsule, I wrote that backup quarterbacks against great defenses are an automatic fade. That applies to this game if Daniels is sidelined. Mariota played well against the Panthers, but I feel like anyone, even Tim Boyle, could do well against a Carolina defense that might be the worst unit we’ve ever seen. This is a much tougher challenge for Mariota, who goes from battling the No. 32 defense to a unit that’s been in the top 10 for most of the season.

I’ll be on the Bears if Daniels is sidelined. If Daniels is able to play, I may switch to Washington, though I’ll stick with the Bears if I get the sense that Daniels plans on playing injured. I’ll naturally have updates later in the week to determine how exactly I’ll be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Jayden Daniels in Wednesday’s practice. At this point, it would be a shocker if Marcus Mariota didn’t start, which means the Bears are the play.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t see a prop I like here. The Bears are often poor against running backs, but they’ll be able to stack the box with Jayden Daniels sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jayden Daniels hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he was DNP-DNP-limited in practice, prompting the line to move to Chicago -3. I’m still leaning toward the Bears, but don’t plan on betting the game, especially now that the line is up to a field goal.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This line has moved to Washington -1, and the total has risen three points. It looks like Jayden Daniels has a legitimate chance to play. If he does, I’ll have interest in the Bears in fading an injured quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jayden Daniels will play without his left tackle. Didn’t another Redskin quarterback once return from injury too early? I like fading banged-up quarterbacks, so I’m going to bet a unit on Chicago. The sharps were on Chicago earlier in the week. The best line is +1.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Jayden Daniels may play after all.

Percentage of money on Washington: 68% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.