2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Packers at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I posted my thoughts on Miami’s offense on Twitter and got mostly positive responses. This guy, on the other hand, is a deranged loon. My only regret was not calling him Ingold’s man lover. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Meanwhile, you may have heard that Donald Trump was working at a McDonald’s. That McDonald’s was right around the corner from my house! Unfortunately, I could not go because it was a football Sunday. Still, this gave us some material to use here because childless cat ladies took issue with this:

Trump could rescue kids from a burning building, and childless cat ladies like Shawna would take issue with it. She belongs in a mental ward.

Last one:

If you’re wondering what my dead uncles have to do with this, I’ll be discussing this tweet and others in an impending Jerks of the Week entry.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: A major reason why the Packers failed to cover the spread last week was because “No Cookie” Jordan Love threw two interceptions early in the game, resulting in 10 easy points for the Texans. Houston scored just 12 points otherwise, failing to generate 200 yards of offense.

The Packers rallied and won because Love was terrific in the second half. That should carry over into this game because the Jaguars have the 27th-ranked defensive EPA. They’ve gotten Tyson Campbell back from injury, but still happen to be terrible against the pass. They can’t cover outside receivers, which wasn’t much of an issue last week because New England has no talent there. Green Bay obviously does with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.

The Jaguars are better against the run. They’re just outside of the top 10 in rush defense, so Josh Jacobs will be held in check as a runner. The Packers could have success with him as receiver because the Jaguars struggle mightily against pass-catching backs. As it so happens, Jacobs just caught his first career receiving touchdown. Could he do it again?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence’s two performances in London were night and day. He was dreadful against the Bears, missing several receivers for big gains. He performed much better last week, mimicking what he did prior to the London games when he torched the Colts.

The differences in these performances have to do with the caliber of defenses he’s faced. The Bears are far better than the Colts and Patriots as far as defensive ability is concerned. The Packers are definitely in the same pantheon as Chicago rather than Indianapolis and New England. Their pass rush is stellar. Of all the NFL teams that blitz at a lesser clip than 20 percent, they have the best pass rush in the league. The Jaguars don’t pass protect well, so Lawrence could be forced into turnovers.

The one area in which Jacksonville could succeed is via the run. It took Doug Pederson a while, but he has seemingly figured out that Tank Bigsby is his best running option. Then again, he could revert to Travis Etienne if the former first-rounder returns from injury.

RECAP: This seems like an easy spot to fade the Jaguars. They’re coming off a huge win on an international stage. They celebrated their win over the Patriots as if they won the Super Bowl. Any time a bad team wins in blowout fashion, especially in a showcase game, you have to look to go against them if it makes sense to do so, and we’re getting that sort of spot in this situation.

Jacksonville stinks. It has gotten blown out twice this year by the Bills and Bears. Buffalo is one of the better teams in the NFL, while Chicago ranks in the top five of net adjusted EPA. The Packers are in same pantheon. Now that Love is healthy, I consider Green Bay to be one of the best teams in the NFL. The offense is lethal, while the defense has been surprisingly good. And if you think this spread is high, I believe it to be too short; I made this line Green Bay -6.

Given that the Packers are far superior and are getting the Jaguars in an obvious flat spot, I plan on betting the road favorite for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars may not have Cam Robinson, which will only help Green Bay’s great pass rush. Something I missed with the Packers is that they have to battle the Lions next week, so they may not be focused. I’m going to remove the projection units I had on this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Jaguars have allowed monster production to all viable tight ends they’ve played against this year. Cole Kmet and Hunter Henry combined for 170 receiving yards in the two London games. Tucker Kraft has been excellent this year, so he should have another great game this week. The best number is over 35.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars might have two players back from injury. Cam Robinson needs to clear concussion protocol, which he did, according to Doug Pederson, who later backtracked. Meanwhile, excellent linebacker Foye Oluokun has a chance to return from injured reserve. If you missed it, I’m not planning on betting this game because the Packers could look ahead to their game against the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jaguars, but this is nothing new. They’ve been betting Jacksonville every week. You can even get a -3 line for -123 vig at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Jaguars are coming off a big win on an international stage.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

All the money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (135,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 53-37 ATS in the regular season.

Jaguars are 63-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 80 degrees. Light wind.