2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Titans at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff has entered the MVP discussion chat. Goff had a slow start to his season in the first couple of weeks, but has caught fire since. He was flawless on a Monday night a few weeks ago, and he torched the Vikings in the second half on a near-perfect afternoon.

This would have been a difficult matchup for Goff to begin the season, but that’s not the case anymore. The Titans, who are 10th in defensive EPA, didn’t have either starting cornerback last week, as Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed were both out of the lineup. This allowed Josh Allen to torch the Titans in the second half despite having no chemistry with Amari Cooper.

Goff obviously has chemistry with his weapons. He’ll expose Tennessee’s new weaknesses with his many threats. He won’t have great support from his rushing attack because the Titans play the run well, but Jahmyr Gibbs could expose the linebacking corps as a receiver out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans started Mason Rudolph last week as a result of Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Rudolph didn’t make any of Levis’ patented bone-headed plays, but he was ineffective at moving the chains. Tennessee was blown out after establishing a 10-0 lead.

The Titans will likely go back to Levis if he’s OK. This means that there will be more turnovers. Levis gives the Titans a chance at explosive plays, but his floor is much lower than Rudolph’s. At the very least, he won’t face much pressure from a front missing Aidan Hutchinson.

Another issue for the Titans is that they won’t be able to establish the run. Given Levis’ issues, the only way they can be successful is by having Tony Pollard make big gains. This won’t work because Detroit is one of the top teams against rushing attacks.

RECAP: This is an obvious sandwich situation for the Lions. They’re coming off a huge, last-second victory over the previously unbeaten Vikings. Following this non-conference game against the Titans, they have to take on the Packers.

I can’t imagine we’re going to get Detroit’s best effort. And yet, that could still be enough to win and cover against the Titans, who are a complete disaster right now. Their offense is either turnover-prone with Levis or completely inept with Rudolph. Their defense, meanwhile, is missing several players, including both cornerbacks.

I could see the Titans hanging around for a while in this game, but the Lions ultimately scoring enough in the fourth quarter to get the cover, much like Buffalo last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mason Rudolph will reportedly start again because Will Levis isn’t quite ready to play. The other big news is that the Titans have traded some key pieces like DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones. This is a clear sign that the team is waving the white flag, so I don’t think they’ll be very motivated. That nullifies the Lions potentially looking ahead, so I’m more than willing to bet two or three units on Detroit, depending on how Tennessee’s injury situation shakes out.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not going to have any props for this game. This could be a blowout, so we may not see the starters for very long. You could go under on some players, but the numbers for that don’t seem great.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will be missing both starting cornerbacks, which sounds like such a disaster for them. They’re also going to be down DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones because of the trades. The Lions aren’t in a great motivational spot, but they should still be able to defeat Tennessee rather easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Calvin Ridley will play, but Tennessee will be without its top two cornerbacks and newly acquired linebacker Jerome Baker. The Titans are a mess, and there is some sharp money on Detroit (though not a lot). The best line is -12 -110 at a few books, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Lions are in a sandwich situation. They just beat the Vikings and will be looking ahead to the Packers.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -9.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Who in their right mind wants to bet the Lions right now?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 92% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.