2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Bills at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills got off to a sluggish start last week, trailing 10-0 against the woeful Titans. There understandably wasn’t much chemistry between Josh Allen and Amari Cooper. The two eventually connected for a touchdown, and Cooper’s presence helped open things up for Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, resulting in a blowout win.

The Seahawks have a much worse defense than the Titans, with the two stop units ranking 30th and 10th, respectively. Seattle struggles in multiple departments, two of which happen to be defending No. 1 receivers and tight ends. Thanks to the Cooper trade, the Bills have someone who truly fits the former category. Dalton Kincaid can obviously take advantage of the latter.

Additionally, Seattle is very poor at stopping the run. Jordan Mason looked like he was going to rush for 150 yards against them before getting hurt right before halftime two weeks ago. The Bills have recently discovered a running game with Ray Davis. He could be worked into the mix with James Cook, as both figure to thrive.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a blowout victory over the Falcons, but the dark cloud over the win happened to be D.K. Metcalf’s injury. Fortunately for the Seahawks, Metcalf is not out for the year, or anything, but he is considered week to week. This means he’s probably a long shot to play in this game.

Metcalf was such a huge threat in Seattle’s passing game. The Seahawks still have Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, but a big reason those guys have been so productive is Metcalf’s presence. The Bills have some talented cornerbacks who can lock down the two lesser Seattle wideouts.

The best hope for the Seahawks is establishing Kenneth Walker. There was some worry about Walker’s availability last week due to an illness, but he played well against the Falcons. This is a tougher matchup than most anticipate as far Walker’s running is concerned. However, the Bills are very weak to pass-catching backs, and Walker’s role has expanded into that realm this year.

RECAP: I’m rather neutral on this game. Buffalo being favored by three makes sense, and I think a case can be made against both teams. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win, but they had an Atlanta squad that was looking ahead to its battle against the Buccaneers. Now, they’ll have to continue their momentum without their top receiver. The Seahawks are not nearly as good as they looked against the Falcons. They were utterly demolished by the 49ers the prior week, after all.

As far as the Bills are concerned, they still need time to gel with Cooper on the team. They won with Cooper last week, but they were not battling a competitive team. The Seahawks are capable of beating Buffalo, despite what I wrote in the prior paragraph.

I don’t plan on betting this game unless there are some surprise injuries that make one of the sides appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two injury updates for the Seahawks. D.K. Metcalf will miss practice Wednesday and Thursday, but he’ll test out his injury on Friday to see if he can go. Meanwhile, top cornerback Tariq Woolen returned to practice on a limited basis, so perhaps he’ll return to action this week.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop seems too low. It’s 40.5, and he’s gone over that number in four of the previous five games. We bet Kyle Pitts last week successfully against Seattle’s defense, and we’ll be doing the same with Kincaid. The best number is over 40.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills won’t have Terrel Bernard, while the Seahawks won’t have D.K. Metcalf. There’s good news for Seattle though, as Tariq Woolen will return, while George Fant has a good chance to play. Tre Brown may return as well. I’m tempted to move to Seattle, but I’m going to stick with my pick.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: No change in opinion here, and the sharps haven’t touched this one either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No D.K. Metcalf, as expected. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is Buffalo -3 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Increasing money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Seahawks are 21-8 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 55 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.