2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Saints at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers were so sluggish offensively against the Cardinals. It was an easy matchup, yet they were so slow to move the ball. This was the result of relying on non-talents like Simi Fehoko and Will Dissly. This team is in dire need of receiving talent.

Luckily for Justin Herbert, he’ll have another easy matchup, so he’ll be able to rebound. The Saints lost both starting cornerbacks to injury last Thursday. If at least one is out, New Orleans will have a very difficult time defending the pass because the team already was dreadful at defending slot receivers and tight ends. Ladd McConkey should have an excellent game.

The Saints have other liabilities beyond not being able to stop these positions. They are also awful against the run. In consecutive weeks, players named Sean Tucker and Javonte Williams mercilessly trampled them. J.K. Dobbins has to be licking his chops.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Charger defense also has to be licking its chops. That’s because they’ll be matched up against Spencer Rattler. The Silver Snake has some natural ability, but the game is way too fast for him right now. He makes way too many mistakes, which will kill him against the Chargers.

Rattler won’t even have much of a chance in the pocket. His offensive line is ravaged by injury, which is very problematic against a pass rush featuring Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Silver Snake will be looking like a Purple Parrot after this game.

Rattler won’t be able to lean on Alvin Kamara in all likelihood either. It was a surprise that the Chargers couldn’t contain James Conner on Monday night because they had done a great job against the run until then. They were second against the run heading into Monday, so I suspect that they’ll get back to their run-stopping ways, especially given that they’ll be able to focus on Kamara.

RECAP: The Chargers are in a tough scheduling spot. They’re coming off a Monday night game, and they’ll be battling a team that played on Thursday. Teams in this situation cover at about a 39-percent rate, so if you want to bet a team in this sort of a situation, you’ll need a great reason to do so.

Well, we might have a good reason. The Saints have a backup quarterback going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is an automatic fade. New Orleans also has so many key personnel out of the lineup, so it’s not like they can rally around and play at 110-percent capacity for their backup quarterback. This team is just broken right now.

I’ll be on the Chargers for a medium-sized play. I worry about the fatigue factor, though I should note that big favorites (-7.5+) are 4-2-1 ATS in the situation I detailed earlier.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Don’t look now, but the Saints may get several of their injured players back in action this week, as Cesar Ruiz, Lucas Patrick, Pete Werner, Chris Olave, and Taysom could all be returning to action. Suddenly, the Chargers don’t look so appealing. I’m going down to zero units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints will be getting back all the players mentioned above. Meanwhile, the Chargers could have cluster injuries at receiver with Quentin Johnston out and Ladd McConkey very shaky to play. Joey Bosa could be back, but Denzel Perryman may miss this game. This is another game where I considered switching sides, but I don’t want to back a reserve quarterback against the NFL’s No. 7 defense.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Chargers called up two receivers, so that doesn’t seem like good news for Ladd McConkey. I don’t want either side in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to bet Taysom Hill to score an anytime touchdown. He’ll be doing a lot of the work in this game. You can get a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel for an anytime touchdown. This $50 bet pays $210. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are healthier than expected. The Chargers will have Joey Bosa and Ladd McConkey on the field, but will they be operating at 100 percent? I still like the Chargers, but I won’t be betting this game. There is sharp money on the Saints. The best line is a clean -7 -110 at FanDuel and DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -6.

Computer Model: Chargers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 57% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Chargers are 21-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.