2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Colts at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: I briefly discussed the Texans’ scoring unit in the previous pick capsule. A 22-point result against the Packers may seem fine until you realize that 10 of the points came off turnovers, and that Houston generated just 197 yards of offense.

There are a couple of issues for the Texans. One is that Nico Collins is sidelined. Collins was C.J. Stroud’s go-to receiver. Without Collins, Stroud has to resort to targeting an older and unfamiliar Stefon Diggs or a hobbled Tank Dell. The latter has a very difficult matchup in this game, so it’s just going to be Diggs.

Another problem for the Texans is Bobby Slowik’s play-calling. Slowik calls far too many running plays on early downs, making his offense very predictable. This worked last year when Houston’s offensive line was mauling people, but that’s not happening this season. The Colts struggled against the run earlier in the year, but they’ve improved to eighth in that department recently.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson is another second-year quarterback who didn’t perform well last week. That is most definitely an understatement, as he needed an injury to Tyler Huntley and complete incompetence by the Alec Ingold-infatuated Mike McDaniel to achieve a victory over the Dolphins.

There’s reason to believe that Richardson will play better this week. The Texans have struggled against scrambling quarterbacks all year, and this is not something new because this was also a problem last year. Richardson had his best game of the year against Houston in Week 1. Not only did he move well; he attacked the Texans effectively downfield. Houston is known to blow coverages, so Richardson could replicate his Week 1 performance.

Another potential positive for the Colts is Jonathan Taylor’s possible return. Shane Steichen said that Taylor will practice this week, so there’s a chance he could play.

RECAP: Sharp bettors slammed the Colts on Monday afternoon, taking the line down from +6.5 to +6. I was happy to see that because I’m on Indianapolis as well.

This is a horrible spot for the Texans. They’re coming off a loss, but it was a hard-fought game against the Packers. Following this game, they have to battle the Jets on a Thursday night. we’ve seen so many big favorites be flat going into a Thursday night affair. The 49ers and Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and Giants, respectively, a few weeks ago. Last week, the Rams nearly lost to the Raiders. The Texans could be the latest team to succumb to this.

Also, this is a revenge game for the Colts, who played the Texans very closely in Week 1. Richardson had his best game against Indianapolis, so perhaps he’ll be able to recapture that magic.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some serious sharp money on the Colts, driving this line down from +6.5 to +5. It sucks that we lost the key number of six, but I think the Colts will win this game outright.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to bet on Anthony Richardson’s over rushing yards because the Texans are so bad against scrambling quarterbacks. The number may come down if Jonathan Taylor is declared back into the lineup, so I’m going to wait on betting this. Update: The best number is over 36.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Great news for the Colts. Jonathan Taylor will be back, and there’s a good chance DeForest Buckner will play as well. Buckner practiced fully on Thursday and rested on Friday (rested is the “R” in our NFL Week 7 Injury Report Excel. I was already bullish on the Colts without even factoring in those returns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor are officially active, so this is the healthiest the Colts have been in a long time. I love the Colts, and so do the sharps. In fact, I’m going to bet a unit on the moneyline. The best moneyline is +196 at Bookmaker, which is where you can find the best line (+5 -108). You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Texans have to play against the Jets on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone is betting the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 82% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 44 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.