2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Vikings at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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Week 7 Analysis: I truly believe that we are cursed. I, or someone who is betting my picks, must have done something akin to urinating on an Indian burial ground. There were three quarterbacks who suffered injuries in Week 7, and we bet three-plus units on all of them. All of them! By the end of the games, we were rooting for Tim Boyle, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Gardner Minshew. What did we do to deserve this?

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (win): The start of the week looked so promising…

Seahawks, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Browns, 4 units (loss): Deshaun Watson is not a good quarterback by any means, but we had no chance when Dorian Thompson-Robinson entered the game. He couldn’t even complete half of his passes against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Dolphins, 3 units (loss): The Dolphins were winning 10-0 as three-point underdogs, but they fumbled a million times in this game. Then, Tyler Huntley got hurt, and we had to cheer on Boyle, the worst quarterback I’ve ever seen. Boyle forgot what down it was on the final drive. I wish I were making that up.

Raiders, 3 units (win): We sort of got lucky here with the back-door field goal, but this was another game in which we lost our starting quarterback. Minshew was a disaster. The Rams scored every single one of their points off Minshew’s turnovers.

Jets, 4 units (loss): I have no idea what happened with the Jets. They were up 15-6, but ended up losing 37-15. I had a worry about their emotional state upon getting Davante Adams, but ignored it as the week progressed, so this was a poor call on my part. Still, a 37-15 loss to a Steeler team that got outgained by 200 yards versus the Cowboys? How does that happen?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I think most people assumed that if the Vikings suffered a defeat, it would be the offense’s fault, with Sam Darnold suffering a meltdown. Darnold wasn’t to blame for the loss to the Lions, however. Darnold misfired just five times against Detroit.

Darnold would have projected very well in this matchup earlier in the year. The Rams had major problems against the pass to start the season, but they’ve gotten better lately. They pressured Minshew heavily last week and forced him into multiple turnovers. Darnold probably won’t give the ball away nearly as often, thanks to the quality pass protection, but the Rams having Darious Williams again will allow them to not get torched quite easily.

The Vikings will do their best running the ball. The Rams are still weak to the rush, and Aaron Jones will be healthier this week after getting injured in London.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The big news here is that the Rams will have Cooper Kupp back from injury. Kupp practiced on a limited basis last week, but didn’t suit up because he wasn’t quite ready. He’ll be able to play this week after undergoing full practices.

Matthew Stafford will be thrilled to have Kupp, as he’ll be a great safety valve to counter Brian Flores’ chaotic blitzes. Stafford is great against the blitz in the first place. Stafford’s completion percentage and EPA are both higher when he’s blitzed rather than when he’s not blitzed.

The Rams might have success running the ball as well. The Vikings just allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to generate some big gains, and Kyren Williams has been stellar ever since the Rams had some injured/suspended offensive linemen return to action.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I don’t think I need to tell you that the Vikings are the better team. The Rams have been blown out on multiple occasions this year. The Vikings, meanwhile, are a field goal away from being 6-0.

Now, the question is if the Vikings will be motivated. I assume most people would think so, given that Minnesota just suffered its first loss of the year. However, I’m not sure if that sentiment is correct. There’s a long history of previously unbeaten teams struggling after their first defeat. Teams in this situation after Week 6 are 32-42 against the spread, including 1-3 on Thursday night.

I’m still going to stick with the Vikings, but with Kupp returning, the Rams will be better than they were previously. Plus, there are a handful of coaches who can prepare a team off very short rest, and Sean McVay is one of them.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trade rumors have surfaced surrounding Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. I have to believe this will serve as a distraction for the Rams. I’m a bit more confident in the Vikings, but I don’t think I can get there as far as betting them.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Cooper Kupp’s over receiving yardage. I don’t think the Rams would be playing if he weren’t 100 percent, given that he was held out last week. The Rams want to trade Kupp, so I imagine they’ll pepper him with targets to showcase that he’s 100 percent. The best number is over 67.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss in the Kupp over prop with Aaron Jones over 71.5 rushing yards, Colby Parkinson over 29.5 receiving yards, and Ty Chandler under 21.5 rushing yards. The Rams are very weak to the run, and Jones is fully healthy. He’s handling all the carries, so I don’t expect Chandler to do much. Meanwhile, the Vikings allow lots of yardage to tight ends. This $25 prop pays $322.02 on FanDuel with a 30-percent profit boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Puka Nacua is active, but for all we know, he could be a distraction. The public doesn’t care, as it’s pounding the Vikings, whereas the sharps are on the Rams. I still have no strong opinion on this game. The best line is Minnesota -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Vikings could have a letdown after their first loss.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 76% (277,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.