2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Seahawks at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 7-14 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -2.5

Texans -7

Falcons -6

Bengals -3.5

Steelers -3

Bears +1.5

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won heading into Monday night. And the Joes once again crushed it with the Bills, thanks to Greg Zuerlein. The public sides are now 13-14.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +5.5

Redskins -7.5

Eagles -3

Lions +2.5

Bengals -5.5

Bills -8.5

Chiefs +1.5

Not one, not two, not three, not four, but five road favorites. And the lone exception is a neutral-site favorite! Road favorites this decade have covered just 49.1 percent of the time, so keep that in mind if you want to join the public.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith has been better than expected this year, given the turnover in coaching. However, he’s coming off his worst outing of 2024. He struggled against the 49ers in what turned out to be a blowout loss.

Smith was in a tough matchup against a defense that got healthier. He’ll have a much easier time against the Falcons. Atlanta doesn’t get after the quarterback at all, owning the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Only Carolina generates less pressure than the Falcons. Smith will have plenty of time to carve up a secondary that has surrendered some big performances to opposing receivers.

The Seahawks should be able to run the ball as well. The Panthers were gashing the Falcons on the ground last week with Chuba Hubbard, who was so effective that the FOX announcers dubbed him the “Canadian Express.” If Hubbard could have that sort of success, imagine what Kenneth Walker will accomplish.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Seahawks rank better against the run than Atlanta, but it’s not like they’re effective at stopping it. Jordan Mason was on pace to hit 150 rushing yards on Thursday night before suffering a shoulder injury. Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor both rushed the ball well in the wake of Mason’s injury.

The Falcons will be able to move the chains on the ground with both backs. This will make things easier for Kirk Cousins, who will be facing a much better pass rush than Smith will. While Atlanta is second-worst in pressure rate, the Seahawks rank No. 3, only behind the Vikings and Chiefs. Cousins can be rattled with pressure, so if Seattle can continue to hound the quarterback consistently, Cousins could be forced into some turnovers.

The Seahawks will need to get to Cousins because the veteran quarterback can expose some liabilities in the secondary if kept clean in the pocket. The Seahawks have some injuries there, which would explain why they’ve allowed some big gains to receivers. Seattle is also weak to tight ends, so perhaps this will be a game in which Kyle Pitts will be more involved.

RECAP: I’m disappointed this line is only -2.5. I figured that with the Seahawks losing three in a row, and the Falcons beating the Buccaneers on “national TV” and then blowing out the Panthers, this spread would have moved off the advance line of -2.5 to perhaps -3.5.

Yet, it has remained at -2.5, which is very odd. It’s almost like the sportsbooks are begging the public to bet Atlanta. I think the Seahawks are the play, and not just based on this conspiracy theory. Atlanta’s defense has been rather poor and struggles to generate pressure on the quarterback, so Seattle, on extra rest, should be able to have plenty of success.

Furthermore, the Falcons could be distracted. They have a huge game against the 4-2 Buccaneers next week. They recently played Tampa Bay, but that game is effectively for the division. I don’t really think Atlanta will be fully focused for Seattle.

It sucks that we’re not getting good line value. That’ll keep me from betting this game very heavily, but I think this spread is off by design. I’m hoping we can get a +3 at some point, but it already looks like there’s sharp money on the Seahawks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks were down a couple of cornerbacks in Wednesday’s practice, including Tariq Woolen, while the Falcons didn’t have Justin Simmons. There’s lots of early sharp action on the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROP BET: Kyle Pitts was criticized for starting the season slowly, but he has accumulated at least 59 receiving yards in three of the past four games. Yet, his yardage prop is only 39.5 even though the Seahawks are terrible at defending tight ends. The best number is over 39.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks will be down their top two cornerbacks. That may sound bad, given the opponent, but Seattle was already poor against outside receivers, so what does it really matter? There is still a strong motivational angle in Seattle’s favor, and Atlanta really isn’t that good; the Falcons could be 1-5 right now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kenneth Walker is active, so no need to worry about the rushing attack. The sharp action is split on this game. The best line is +3 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks were just embarrassed on “national TV.” The Falcons have the Buccaneers next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.