2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Jets at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 5: The Cosmopolitan. Read about how something in my hotel room haunted my dreams.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers just enjoyed his best game as a Jet, but it didn’t matter. New York still found a new way to lose, of course. Their kicker missed two easy field goals in a three-point result, while the team as a whole committed 110 yards’ worth of penalties, including one infraction that negated a touchdown. Garrett Wilson also dropped a ball in the end zone. Despite all of this, New York lost by only three points.

The Jets moved the ball aerially against a tough pass defense, and I think they’ll have similar success this week. The Steelers are known for having a terrific defense, but they’ve allowed plenty of big performances to opposing No. 1 receivers. Despite the drop, Wilson appeared to develop better chemistry with Rodgers, so that should continue in this game. Of course, the trade for Davante Adams will have a big impact as well. It’ll be extremely difficult to defend the Jets now that they have both Adams and Wilson.

The Steelers are much better against the run than the pass, so they won’t struggle everywhere. Breece Hall will have a much tougher matchup than the one he enjoyed Monday. Still, Hall could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. This was one area in which the Jets could have attacked the Bills, but they failed to establish Hall as a receiving threat outside of one big play in the first quarter.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I couldn’t believe what I saw on Sunday. Najee Harris had looked like a 300-pound running back during numerous games this season, but he finally showed some explosive running ability at Las Vegas. Granted, this was an easy matchup against a team that appeared to have given up, but Harris hadn’t produced in positive matchups prior to this one.

This is another plus matchup for Harris, but the Jets should be able to handle the run much better in this game. The Jets will be able to stack the box and clamp down on Harris that way. They allowed quite a few long runs to Ray Davis on Monday night, but just really during the early portions of the game before clamping down on the rush late in the game. I don’t think stopping Harris will be much of an issue.

Justin Fields would have been able to pick up some first downs on the ground like Allen did, but the Steelers will reportedly start Russell Wilson instead, which seems like a poor decision. Despite all the ridiculous pass interference penalties that we saw on Monday night, Wilson has a very tough matchup against a secondary that can erase his only viable downfield threat, George Pickens, via Sauce Gardner. Wilson will have to look elsewhere, which is a problem because all of his other receivers are awful.

RECAP: This is a must-win game for the Jets. They’ve dropped three consecutive games, including Monday night’s loss to the Bills. If they fall to Pittsburgh, they’ll be 2-5. Winning here will turn their season around. The front office seemed to agree, as indicated by their trade for Adams.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a blowout victory. This wasn’t going to bode well for Tomlin when he was favored in this game, but the dynamics have changed with the trade. The Jets are now favored, so Tomlin will fall into his familiar role as an underdog.

I’m going to pass on this game. As talented as Adams is, his presence may remove some of the desperation I thought the Jets would have after losing Monday night, and I hate fading Tomlin when he’s getting points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: One thing I forgot to mention is that the Steelers may not have their center, Zach Frazier. They’ve already been without two offensive linemen, so losing a third would be brutal. I’ve thought about this, and I was wrong about the mindset of these teams. I’m going to bet three units on the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets will probably be without two cornerbacks, but I don’t think it’ll matter against the Steelers. Zach Frazier being sidelined is a bigger factor. The Steelers will get Alex Highsmith back, but they’re a team that got outgained by 200 yards against the Cowboys at home a couple of years ago.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Greg Zuerlein owes us one. I like betting over field goals for teams I believe will win because they’re more likely to kick on fourth down in the second half. Pittsburgh is second in red-zone defense, so Zuerlein will have plenty of chances to redeem himself. The best line is over 1.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet Breece Hall over receiving yards. The Steelers have gone against three receiving backs this year: Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, and Rico Dowdle. They generated 43, 47, and 27 receiving yards. The best number is over 25.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss Hall over receiving yards into a three-leg parlay on BetMGM, which is offering a 25-percent parlay odds boost. I’m going to add George Pickens under 52.5 receiving yards and Najee Harris under 53.5 rushing yards. Harris didn’t top 42 rushing yards in either of his losses, while Pickens has to deal with Sauce Gardner. This $25 parlay pays $157.94 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some -2.5s are popping up. If I see the momentum creeping toward -3, I may lock this in when I do my late afternoon updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I like the Jets a lot, and I want to put a fourth unit on them. Unfortunately, all the -2s are gone. In fact, DraftKings has -3 listed. The sharps have moved this line up. I’m not even seeing a -2.5 -110 available anywhere. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.