2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Dolphins at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: We’ll have at least one more week of Tyler Huntley starting. Tua Tagovailoa has to spend another week on injured reserve before potentially returning in Week 8. It remains to be seen when he’ll make his way back to the field, but earlier reporting suggested that he would be able to return next week.

The Dolphins should be fine with Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Colts have been dreadful against the pass this year, as they even allowed Trevor Lawrence to look like the great quarterback we saw in 2022 and the early parts of 2023. They clamped down on Will Levis last week, but Levis is a lost cause at this point. Huntley has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, so he’ll be able to move the chains aerially.

Miami will also succeed at moving the chains on the ground. The Colts happen to be dreadful when it comes to stopping the run, thanks to numerous injuries on this side of the ball. It’s unclear if De’Von Achane will play, but the Dolphins should do well with Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts are unlikely to have their starting running back. Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, so he’s expected to miss the next game or two. Trey Sermon isn’t exactly the most threatening back, and I don’t think he’ll be great against a Miami defense that can be beaten via the run.

The Dolphins will at least have to worry about Anthony Richardson’s running if the mobile quarterback returns to action following a two-game absence. The Dolphins don’t have the best linebacking corps to put it nicely, so Richardson will be able to run circles around their defense.

Richardson’s passing leaves much to be desired, of course, so there’s some give and take when it comes to the quarterback Indianapolis will start in this game. Joe Flacco would be best to attack Miami’s secondary, especially with Josh Downs, who has been incredible since his return from injury.

RECAP: I wrote this in the Saints-Broncos pick capsule. Backup-caliber quarterbacks tend to have a high cover rate when they battle mediocre or poor defenses, but struggle when battling top defenses.

I think we know how to rate Indianapolis’ stop unit. The Colts are a mess with injuries to key players. They allowed Lawrence to have his best game of the season while struggling against everyone else. Levis sucked last week, but Levis might be a lost cause at this point.

I expect Huntley to play well, but the Dolphins should have the most success with their running backs. Conversely, the Colts may have a hobbled quarterback at the helm if Richardson returns.

I like the Dolphins this week. We’re getting a great number at +3.5, as the Colts aren’t good enough to be favored by more than a field goal over a competent opponent. People won’t want to bet on Miami because of Huntley, but this is a perfect chance for him to play well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money took Miami at +3.5. I imagine that’s because 10 Colts missed Wednesday’s practice, including Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs. Anthony Richardson was full in practice, which might actually be bad news for Indianapolis.

PLAYER PROP BET: Nothing here, though if Trey Sermon is ruled out, I’ll have interest in Tyler Goodson’s over rushing yards.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out, as expected, but Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are iffy to play. Anthony Richardson will be back, but I don’t think that’s necessarily a good thing. As a Dolphins bettor, I prefer to see Richardson over Joe Flacco unless both top receivers are sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Dolphins at +3.5, but haven’t touched this game at +3. I can’t find any clean +3 -110s, unfortunately. The best line I see is +3 -115, available at BetMGM and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.

Computer Model: Colts -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 57% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 29-19 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.