2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Ravens at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s no stopping the Ravens. They’ve been on fire the past four games, thanks mostly to their rushing attack. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have trampled every opponent they’ve battled since Week 3. This has opened great passing opportunities for Jackson, who had a great connection going with Zay Flowers last week.

Things won’t go as smoothly for the Ravens on Monday night. The Buccaneers are one of the better teams at stopping the run. They’ve clamped down on ground attacks whenever Vita Vea has been on the field this year. Vea and company won’t completely stymie Henry, but they’ll be able to slow him down enough to force Jackson into more passing situations.

It should be noted that Jackson has a nice matchup as a passer. Tampa Bay’s secondary has issues, especially with Jamel Dean suffering an injury last week. However, the Buccaneers get a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, and Baltimore doesn’t pass protect well with its new offensive line. Jackson could be forced into some turnovers, assuming that he won’t be able to lean on Henry as usual.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The offensive line isn’t the only issue the Ravens have. They also struggle to cover outside receivers and tight ends. They miss Patrick Queen, and their cornerbacks aren’t very good. This is something some of their recent opponents couldn’t exploit, but the Buccaneers will be able to do so.

The Buccaneers have a pair of talented tackles with Luke Goedeke returning last week. The front will give Baker Mayfield ample time to throw, and Mayfield will be able to deliver strikes to his two talented receivers. Cade Otton also figures to have a solid performance, much like Zach Ertz did versus Baltimore last week.

As bad as the Ravens are against the pass, they’re even better against the run. The Buccaneers were able to get some great games out of Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker last week, but that won’t happen against Baltimore’s stalwart defensive front.

RECAP: If you ask most people what they thought about this spread, you’d probably hear that it’s about right, or even a bit short of what it should be. Most of the public action is on the Ravens, after all. Can you blame average bettors for wagering this way? The Ravens have won four in a row. They destroyed the Cowboys and Bills. They just beat everyone’s favorite darling Redskins. Of course, they should be favored by more than 3.5 points!

Yet, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The Ravens are an overrated team. They do some things extremely well, but they have some liabilities. They struggle to pass protect, they can’t get after the quarterback consistently, and they are poor at covering outside receivers. The Buccaneers can exploit these weaknesses. They are also built to slow down Henry.

My numbers on this game are radically different. I have the Ravens at -2 according to my personal ratings, while the EPA numbers think this spread should be Tampa Bay -2. I trust either of these spreads more than Baltimore -3.5, which seems ridiculous.

I’m obviously going to be on the Buccaneers. This is great value that I can’t pass up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: These teams haven’t practiced yet, so I’ll have an update on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Evans missed practice twice with a hamstring, but he said he plans on playing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Mike Evans will play, but may not be 100 percent. Vita Vea was added to the injury report. I’m dropping the projected unit count.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We’re still awaiting Vita Vea’s status. His designation will dictate how much I’ll be betting on the game because he’s key in slowing down Derrick Henry.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Zay Flowers to go over his receiving yardage total. He’s had 91-plus yards in the past three games that weren’t blowout wins resulting from Derrick Henry’s insane rushing. The Buccaneers are weak to No. 1 receivers. The best number is over 62.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m tossing in Flowers’ over receiving yards with Mark Andrews over 28.5 receiving yards, Mike Evans over 57.5 receiving yards, and Rachaad White under 25.5 rushing yards. Tampa Bay also struggles to cover tight ends, and Andrews has been more involved lately. The Ravens are very weak to outside receivers as well. And White is not 100 percent. The Buccaneers have said they want to go to a three-man committee anyway, and the Ravens don’t allow anything on the ground. This $25 parlay pays $322.59 on FanDuel because of a 30-percent odds boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mike Evans and Vita Vea will play. I’m going to stick with a bet on the Buccaneers, but only two units because they may not be 100 percent. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +4.5 -105 at ESPNBet. I don’t normally like to promote ESPNBet, but that’s where the best line is.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 70% (293,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 136-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-72 ATS at home in the previous 114 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-31 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Clear, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.