2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Titans at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Wow, what a blow to my confidence. Semi-horrible is OK. Absolutely horrible? Ouch!

Something we’re great at is our mock drafts. Watch me school this clown:

That was so brutal that his unborn grandkids will be shamed.

Here’s someone just being mean:

Some people have the unfortunate medical issue of having air in their heads. This Karrie bigot should be more sensitive.

Here’s some from Monday night:

I actually thought this guy was referring to the official because he responded to one of my tweets where I berated the horrible refs from the Bills-Jets game.

He replied:

I would have normally responded with something snarky, but I was incredibly frustrated with how the Monday night game went.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: This is the perfect matchup for Josh Allen. I thought the same for Anthony Richardson last week, but he didn’t end playing. The reason is because Tennessee’s linebacking corps is so dreadful that it struggles to contain scrambling quarterbacks. Allen doesn’t run as frequently as he does late in the season and playoffs, but when he decides to do that in this game, he’ll pick up chunks of yardage.

The same can’t be said for his running backs. Whether it’s James Cook or Ray Davis, the Bills will struggle to move the chains on the ground when Allen isn’t running, given that Tennessee is fourth against the rush.

The Titans would normally be great against the pass as well because they obtained two No. 1 cornerbacks this offseason in Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed. However, Awuzie is currently on injured reserve, while Sneed has struggled because he’s playing hurt. Allen doesn’t have the receivers to exploit this matchup outside of Khalil Shakir. However, Allen will be able to attack the middle of the field with throws to Cook and Dalton Kincaid.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis had an amazing matchup in Week 6. He was battling an injury-ravaged Colts defense that revived Trevor Lawrence the prior week. I considered Levis a great DFS option, yet he flopped miserably. He failed to throw for 100 yards, and he couldn’t connect with Calvin Ridley on eight tries. Ridley became the first receiver since 2012 to have no catches on eight or more targets. Unreal.

Things will be much more difficult for Levis this week. The Bills rank seventh in defensive dropback EPA. They have a couple of talented cornerbacks to take away Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Buffalo can also generate a decent pass rush to rattle Levis.

The one chance the Titans have on this side of the ball is to establish Tony Pollard. The Bills are weak to the run, so Pollard could have some explosive runs. However, the Titans could fall way behind early on, which would negate Pollard’s opportunities.

RECAP: Had the Bills lost to the Jets like they were supposed to, I would have bet them heavily in this game to rebound off three consecutive losses, with the most recent one being on national TV. Stupid Greg Zuerlein had to ruin everything.

As it stands now, I’m neutral on the game. The Bills, if completely focused, will be able to destroy the Titans. However, they’re coming off an emotional victory on a national stage and will be playing on a short work week. This is a poor spot for them, but Levis and the Titans are so awful that it may not matter. And yes, this is the first instance of me passing on a game to avoid betting a crappy team. I just wanted to note that before the Titans cover easily!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Amari Cooper was traded after I wrote up this pick on Tuesday. Cooper obviously gives the Bills a better chance of covering this spread, especially when considering that Tennessee could be without both starting cornerbacks. As Evan said on Tuesday’s pick show, the Bills are a front-running team. I think there’s some merit to betting a couple of units on them.

PLAYER PROP BET: We bet Breece Hall’s over receiving yards last week because the Bills allow a ton of yardage to receiving backs. We’ll be betting Tony Pollard for the same reason, as well as the fact that Tyjae Spears is out. Pollard will get all of the receiving work in a likely deficit. The best number is over 21.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills will have Ed Oliver and James Cook back from injury, but I’m going to drop the two projected units I had on them. An e-mailer pointed out Buffalo’s tough travel schedule to me. The Bills had three straight home games and are coming off a short week, which seems like a very difficult travel schedule. This could be enough to squash the Titans, but the Bills won’t be playing at their best.

FINAL THOUGHTS: L’Jarius Sneed is out, so the Titans will be missing both starting cornerbacks. Tennessee is unappealing as a team to bet, but so are the Bills because of the post-national TV victory. This is a pass for me, and the same can be said of the sharps. The best line is -9 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Bills are coming off an emotional win on national TV, and now will be playing on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.5.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 83% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.