2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Raiders at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Reports indicate that Cooper Kupp may have a chance to play this game. It must be a huge relief to Matthew Stafford that one of his top receivers is close to returning because he’s had to rely on the likes of Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell since Week 2.

It’s unclear if Kupp will be 100 percent, but this is obviously an easy matchup. It didn’t look like that was the case to start the year when the Raiders were considered to have one of the top defenses in the NFL, but Christian Wilkins is out for the season, while Maxx Crosby has been banged up. The Raiders had one of the top pass rushes in 2023, but they’re 10th-worst in that category this year. As a result, they’ve surrendered some big games to No. 1 receivers.

The Raiders are even worse when it comes to dealing with running backs. They’re eighth-worst when it comes to stopping the run, and they allow tons of yardage to pass-catching backs. Najee Harris even looked competent against them, so imagine what Kyren Williams will accomplish.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Kupp will be the only stud receiver returning in this game. Davante Adams, for those of you who haven’t heard, was traded to the Jets for a third-round pick. I have NFL Trade Grades posted for both teams on this page.

Adams returning this week would have been a huge boon for the offense. He and Jakobi Meyers would’ve looked great against Los Angeles’ secondary, which is ranked 29th in the NFL per EPA dropback. Still, even without Adams, the Raiders could have success moving the chains aerially, given that Los Angeles’ pass defense is so bad. The Rams are at their worst when it comes to defending tight ends, so Brock Bowers figures to have a massive game.

There’s a chance the Raiders will be able to run the ball as well. They’ve battled some very difficult rush defenses lately, as the Browns, Broncos and Steelers are fully capable of clamping down on opposing rushing attacks. That’s not true for the Rams, who have one of the worst ground-stopping units in the NFL. The Rams were the original team to revive D’Andre Swift’s career, so perhaps they’ll do the same for either Zamir White or Alexander Mattison.

RECAP: Before I tell you that I love the Raiders, please let me explain that I’m not violating my rule of not betting crappy teams. Remember the corollary: Betting crappy teams is OK if they’re battling other bad teams. The Rams, by any measure, are a bad team. Ever since they lost their receivers, they were blown out by the Cardinals and lost to the Bears. They were also getting crushed by San Francisco before the 49ers fell asleep at the wheel. They’ve won one game all year, and it was by three points. They’re only six or seven spots better than the Raiders in the NFL Power Rankings and EPA numbers. Kupp coming back could change that, but he may not be 100 percent in his first action since his injury. There’s also no guarantee that he’ll even play.

If I’ve made you comfortable with taking the Raiders, let me explain why I like them this week. First, it has to do with the Rams being favored by too many points. The Rams, as discussed, are not a good team, so they’re an automatic fade if favored by more than a field goal. This line is way too high. EPA has this at -3.5, and I think -3 might actually be correct. A spread of seven is absurd.

Another reason to like the Raiders is because the Rams are likely to be unfocused. They’re coming off a bye, but they have a huge game in four days against the Vikings. Big favorites have an awful track record heading into Thursday games, and I don’t see why the Rams would be at their best against this stupid Raider team whom the Rams just saw lose in a blowout to Pittsburgh.

Speaking of which, that brings us to our next point, which is that the Raiders were embarrassed at home. In fact, the Raiders have gotten blown out in two consecutive games, so this is a favorable spot for them.

It might be possible that I haven’t convinced you to bet the Raiders yet. If so, there’s nothing else I can say. I’ll be wagering on the Raiders, and the unit count will depend on Kupp’s availability.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders at +7, though Maxx Crosby missed Wednesday’s practice yet again. Kolton Miller and Dylan Parham missed Wednesday’s practice as well. Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, was limited on Wednesday.

PLAYER PROP BET: We won with Brock Bowers last week, and we’re going to bet him again. Bowers’ prop is 61.5 yards, yet he’s hit at least 71 yards three times this year. The Rams are awful at defending tight ends. The best number is over 61.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders some major injuries that have pushed this line to -7. Jakobi Meyers is out, as is Dylan Parham, who happens to be the team’s second-best lineman. The Raiders will at least have right tackle Thayer Munford returning, so that’s at least something. As for the Rams, they may get back Cooper Kupp, who was limited all week. This isn’t great for the Raiders. I still like them, but I can’t go above three units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some +7.5s have popped up. The sharps were on the Raiders earlier in the week, but they’ve jumped on the Rams the past 24 hours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Cooper Kupp is out, which is obviously huge. As mentioned earlier, there’s mixed sharp action on this game. The best line is +7 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Raiders were just embarrassed at home. The Rams play against the Vikings in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.

Computer Model: Rams -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Good amount of action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.