2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Bengals at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Anyone expecting Joe Burrow to light up the Giants on Sunday night was greatly disappointed. Burrow had an unexpected long touchdown run in the first quarter, but didn’t do anything otherwise. He was lucky to escape with a victory.

Burrow didn’t have much success against the Giants because he saw lots of pressure. The same thing will happen in this game. Myles Garrett routinely dominates Cincinnati’s weak offensive line. Burrow will constantly be under siege, so he won’t be able to fully exploit a defense with some liabilities on the back end.

The Bengals won’t threaten Cleveland with the run at all either. Zack Moss and Chase Brown are as pedestrian as it gets. The Browns just put the clamps on Saquon Barkley, so they shouldn’t have any trouble stopping Cincinnati’s rushing duo.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Browns will have Nick Chubb back for the first time since his gruesome knee injury in Week 2 last year. It’s unclear how limited Chubb will be. It’s almost certain that he won’t receive a full workload, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be when given his chances.

Chubb, at the very least, should make the Bengals somewhat honest against the run, especially when considering how brutal they’ve been against the rush this year. This will make life easier for Deshaun Watson, who obviously needs all the help he can get.

Watson, by the way, got that help last week. The Browns had both tackles on the field for the first time all year last week. This didn’t translate to a victory, but it did allow Watson to have his best performance of the season. Watson was 11-of-12 in the second half against the Eagles. Granted, Philadelphia’s pass defense is a mess, but so is Cincinnati’s. The Bengals have had serious issues containing No. 1 receivers, so Amari Cooper projects well.

RECAP: Cleveland has been a house of horrors for Burrow. In four visits to Cleveland, Burrow has lost 35-30, 21-16, 32-13, and 24-3. It makes sense that the Browns would give him problems. They have Garrett and the rest of their pass rush against a Cincinnati offensive line that hasn’t been very good to say the least. Burrow saw plenty of pressure last week, so that should continue.

Without even taking this into consideration, this spread is way too high. The line is Cleveland +5.5, and yet I’m getting +2 per my NFL Power Rankings and +1.5 according to the EPA numbers. I can’t even get to +3; let alone +5.5!

The Bengals seem like a great fade. They could have easily lost to the Giants, yet they prevailed, and now they could be flat off a win on national TV. Meanwhile, this is Cleveland’s Super Bowl. The Browns are 1-5, but they could at least legitimize their season by knocking off Cincinnati.

I’m going to be on the Browns for a few units. I know I said I won’t bet crappy teams anymore, but I don’t consider Cleveland crappy. With both of their tackles back, I’d say the Browns are below average, so I think they’re safe to bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money took the Browns from +6.5 to +6. Perhaps that’s because Nick Chubb was full in Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROP BET: We bet A.J. Brown last week because the Browns are very weak to WR1s. We’ll be betting Ja’Marr Chase for the same reason. Chase has gone over 85 receiving yards in three of the past four weeks, but is coming off his worst game since Week 2. He’ll be motivated to rebound. The best number is over 78.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Chubb might not be the only Browns star back. Juan Thornhill has a chance to return from injured reserve as well. Perhaps this is why the sharps took Cleveland down from +6.5 to +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The one inactive of note is Jameis Winston, so there might be a trade on the horizon. The sharps are on Cleveland, taking this line down from +6.5 to +5.5. The best line is +6 -119 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

This is the Browns’ Super Bowl. The Bengals are coming off a win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 11 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters.

Joe Burrow is 39-19 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.