2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Chiefs at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers moved the chains effectively against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but there’s one obvious element missing from that game. That would be Christian McCaffrey, who notched 80 rushing and 80 receiving yards in that contest. McCaffrey’s absence hasn’t been felt too much this year because Jordan Mason has been so effective, but Mason suffered a shoulder injury Thursday night. It’s unclear if Mason will be ready to play, but it’s worth noting that the 49ers struggled to hold on to their lead without Mason, given that their rushing attack wasn’t potent with the backups.

San Francisco will be able to attack Kansas City’s defense in a different way, however. The Chiefs have been incredibly weak to tight ends this year, which was not the case in 2023. George Kittle didn’t do much in the Super Bowl, but he’ll put together a big performance.

Another area in which the Chiefs have been weak on this side of the ball is defending the No. 2 receiver. Steve Spagnuolo often loves to double team the opposing top option, which he could consider to be Brandon Aiyuk. Thus, Deebo Samuel could thrive unless Spagnuolo deems both wideouts talented enough to eschew the double-team strategy.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have had a couple of unexpected players emerge for them in the wake of major injuries. Kareem Hunt rushed for 100-plus yards in Week 5, while JuJu Smith-Schuster had the game of his life despite causing an interception with a drop.

I do not expect Hunt and Smith-Schuster to repeat these performances. The 49ers are stout against the run, and they cover slot receivers much more effectively than the Saints do because of Deommodore Lenoire. They’re worse against pass-catching running backs, but the Chiefs aren’t particularly strong in this area.

The 49ers are much weaker to outside receivers, particularly No. 2 options. Tyler Lockett just had a great performance, for example. However, the Chiefs don’t really have much of a threat here either. Who is going to expose this liability, exactly? Justin Watson? Patrick Mahomes is great, but even he can’t get Watson to be a viable threat.

RECAP: I’m surprised the Chiefs aren’t favored. Andy Reid has an amazing track record off a bye. The spread record isn’t fantastic because the sportsbooks began adjusting about a decade ago, so Reid has had trouble covering high lines, but this is not a high line. I thought we’d see Kansas City -3, or maybe even -2.5.

The 49ers are favored, which is suspicious. The public doesn’t seem to think so, however, as there is massive action on Kansas City. And why wouldn’t there be? The Chiefs are 5-0, while the 49ers are 3-3. Betting Kansas City is incredibly easy.

I’m going to be on San Francisco. The 49ers are also coming off extra rest because they played on Thursday. They have some holes defensively, but they should be able to stop what the Chiefs are doing. For example, the 49ers are strong versus tight ends and slot receivers, which is where Kansas City tends to attack.

It should be noted that the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record says. They’re unbeaten, but they easily could have lost to the Bengals and Falcons. They also had issues beating the Chargers despite going against a team missing half of its roster and the quarterback being hobbled. The Chiefs crushed the Saints, but New Orleans is not a good team. The 49ers are better. In fact, the EPA numbers have the 49ers as better than the Chiefs.

I won’t be betting thi sgame because I worry about Kyle Shanahan choking in a big game, plus doing so requires Mahomes to lose outright, but the 49ers seem like the right play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No real injury updates, so I doubt I’ll be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: No update here. Jauan Jennings is out, but Ricky Pearsall can step in for him.

PLAYER PROP BET: Tight ends have destroyed the Chiefs all year, dating back to Week 1 when Isaiah Likely went nuts. George Kittle should have a great game. The best number is over 51.5 -113 at FanDuel.

FanDuel has “Gronk Spike” specials with 30-percent boosts to anytime touchdowns. There are two available for $25 and $50. I’m using my $50 boost on Kittle, who has scored a touchdown in every game this year since Week 2. This $50 bet pays $121. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER: I’m teasing Lions +8 with Chiefs +8. Both underdogs are likely to keep their games close. If the Lions +8 covers, I will try to middle with 49ers -2.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is coming in on the 49ers, but we’ve taken the Chiefs on a teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps are on the 49ers. It looks like the first leg of our teaser (Lions +8) will win, so we’re going to try to middle it with 49ers -2 at half the unit count. The best line is -2 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Chiefs are a huge public underdog.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 85% (129,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Patrick Mahomes is 89-24 SU, 62-49 ATS (48-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Andy Reid is 18-11 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 76 degrees. Light wind.