2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Eagles at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I’ve never seen someone so stupid until I saw this interview:

“I don’t think.” Couldn’t have said it any better myself.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Much was expected from the Eagles last week. The Browns have a good defense, but Philadelphia was welcoming back A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson to the lineup. Surely, there would be some fireworks.

Instead, the Eagles struggled to pull away from the Browns. It didn’t help that Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert suffered injuries, but the Eagles were inconsistent offensively. They hit some big plays, but floundered on way too many drives. Hurts could struggle again, as the Giants bring a immense pass rush with Brian Burns. Mailata is expected to be sidelined, so Hurts’ pass protection won’t be as potent as usual, so the big plays to Brown and Smith may not happen very often.

Of course, there’s also Saquon Barkley, who will be looking for revenge against the team that drafted him. Barkley, however, will be challenged by the NFL’s third-ranked rush defense, so he may struggle to find running room, much like last week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Eagles have also been a major disappointment on this side of the ball. Their defense is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL despite making some upgrades to the personnel and coaching staff this offseason. They allowed Deshaun Watson to complete his first 11 passes of the second half last week.

The Eagles still have issues in the secondary, so covering against the Giants will be difficult, assuming Malik Nabers returns from injury. Darius Slayton has done a good job filling in for Nabers, but Nabers is a unique talent who will give Philadelphia’s defense major problems.

Nabers isn’t the only rookie who projects well. Tyrone Tracy has been electric since taking over for the injured Devin Singletary. The Eagles have been known to struggle against the rush, so Tracy figures to have another quality performance.

RECAP: What a shame we didn’t get the advance spread. The Eagles were favored by four, yet that line has dropped to three because of what transpired last week.

Though it seems as though we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, that may not be the case. Both my power rankings and the EPA numbers say this line should be pick ’em. So, in reality, we’re getting good line value with the Giants.

I’m going to be on the Giants. Their defense has been awesome lately. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t improved with their new coaching staff. The defense continues to be terrible, while the offense isn’t clicking. Hurts has struggled this year with some sloppy play and inaccurate throws. He’s had some great moments as well, but he’s hurt his team way more than in past years.

This is also a situation in which Hurts hasn’t performed well in the past. Hurts is awful as a road favorite with a 7-15 ATS record.

Despite all of this, I don’t think I’ll be betting the Giants. I’d be on New York (assuming Nabers plays) at +4 or +3.5, but +3 sucks. I know I said that we still have value with the Giants, but at +3, there’s not much room for error because as pedestrian as the Eagles have been, I don’t know if I see them losing to New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams didn’t have some major players for Wednesday’s practices. Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert were out for the Eagles, while the Giants didn’t have Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Andrew Thomas. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the week unravels.

PLAYER PROP BET: This is a revenge game for Saquon Barkley, but I like him to do his damage as a receiver rather than a running back because the Giants allow lots of receiving yardage to opposing backs. Barkley has exceeded this posted total in three of his five games this year. The best number is over 14.5 -120 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bad news for the Eagles: Not only will they be missing Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert; the Giants will be getting back Malik Nabers, and they had Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence both return to practice on Friday after being DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday. Andrew Thomas is on injured reserve though, so it’s not like all is positive for New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants had some good news this morning, with both Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns being active. This doesn’t mean that they’re 100 percent, however. I’m still neutral on this game, and the sharps are as well. The best line is +3 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 82% (129,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won 27 the last 33 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 7-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.