2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Texans at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s killing me that I didn’t bet on the Packers last week because I was right about my theory concerning “No Cookie” Jordan Love. I noted that Love returned from injury early and wasn’t effective in his first two games. Week 6 was Love’s original target date, so I suspected he would be close to 100 percent in that game. Sure enough, he responded with a brilliant, four-touchdown performance against the Cardinals.

Love has a nice matchup against the Texans. Houston’s bread and butter on this side of the ball is generating a heavy pass rush. Love is protected very well, so he’ll have time to locate his many talented receivers against a secondary that is known to blow some coverages.

The Texans also struggle to defend the run. Josh Jacobs hasn’t been amazing in Green Bay, but he’s been pretty effective in moving the chains, and that’s what he’ll do in this contest.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of rushing attacks, it was huge for the Texans that they were able to get Joe Mixon back from injury last week. I normally don’t think a running back absence is a major thing when it comes to handicapping NFL games, but it definitely happens to be enormous for Houston. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik calls far too many early-down runs, which nearly sabotaged a victory against Jacksonville when he insisted on feeding the ball to Cam Akers.

Mixon returning allowed the Texans to move the chains easily against the Patriots, who struggle to defend the run. Things will be much different this week, however. The Packers have maintained one of the top rush defenses in the NFL this year, so they should be able to limit Mixon and force C.J. Stroud into third-and-long situations.

Stroud would be able to easily overcome this if Nico Collins were playing, but Collins’ absence could be felt in this game. Stroud still has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but with Jaire Alexander, Green Bay can take away one of those two threats.

RECAP: This spread probably seems about right to most people. Packers -3? Sure. However, I have a conflict in my projections. My NFL Power Rankings have Green Bay -2.5, so there looks to be a bit of value with Houston +3. Then again, the EPA numbers say this should be Green Bay -5.5, so taking the Packers at -3 might be the way to go.

Luckily, we have some matchup edges to help us with this spread conflict. The Packers have an outstanding defense capable of taking away what the Texans like to do, especially in the wake of Collins’ absence. They can also neutralize Houston’s defensive strength.

I like the Packers to cover, and I’ll be betting them for a couple of units. I won’t go any higher because I’m not in love with this spread being at -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve heard concerns about Laremy Tunsil’s injury, but Tunsil was limited in Wednesday’s practice. That’s a good sign for his availability.

PLAYER PROP BET: I don’t like anything here. The Texans are very weak to the slot, but Jayden Reed has a bum ankle and may not be 100 percent. The Packers are woeful versus tight ends, but Dalton Schultz’s receiving yardage prop is absurdly high.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans won’t have Jimmie Ward, Kamari Lassiter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and potentially Foley Fatukasi. None of these are star players, but they’re valuable pieces of Houston’s defense. The Texans will have Denico Autry back from suspension, but it’s unclear if he’s in shape.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on either side. I still like the Packers for a couple of units. The only sportsbook that hasn’t juiced the Packers -3 over -110 is BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Texans are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 71% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 53-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.