2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Patriots at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are about to experience addition by subtraction. I’m not referring to Doug Pederson’s impending firing, but that would also apply if that were to happen after this game. What I’m referring to is Pederson’s usage of his running backs.

I thought it was unbelievable how Pederson mismanaged this area last week. Tank Bigsby looked like Emmitt Smith against the Colts, and yet Pederson came out of the gate with Travis Etienne getting the first carry. D’Ernest Johnson of all people got goal line work later in the drive. It’s like Pederson forgot that Bigsby existed. He won’t be able to do that this week because Etienne is injured. This is bullish for the Jaguars, who won’t have to see Etienne waste downs any longer. Bigsby will be a much better option against New England’s poor run defense.

The Patriots also struggle to cover the pass. Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and all of Trevor Lawrence’s receivers will be able to get open in this game. It’s just a matter of Lawrence being able to connect with them. Lawrence missed multiple open receivers last week, which has been a trend for him this season.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye had a mixed outing in his first start. He made some good throws, but he was also guilty of mistakes, including a couple of turnovers. He lost a fumble on a strip-sack, and he took lots of hits. Lots, and lots of hits. I don’t know if he’ll be able to survive this beating, the Patriots wanted to start him behind their putrid offensive line for some reason.

The Jaguars don’t have a good defense, but they do a couple of things well on this side of the ball. They have a couple of talented edge rushers who could give Maye lots of problems. This was the case for Maye last week, and the rookie figures to be under lots of heat once again. This will help Jacksonville’s awful secondary, though it’s not like Maye had the capable receivers to expose this weakness anyway.

One other thing Jacksonville’s defense does is contain the run. We didn’t really see this last week because the Jaguars were so worried about all of Chicago’s talented receivers. Jacksonville will be able to limit Rhamondre Stevenson, if he even plays.

RECAP: The Jaguars are a mess. They stood no chance against the Bears. However, I think it’s a mistake to avoid betting them here just because they were blown out against Chicago. The Bears are secretly a terrific team, ranking fourth in net adjusted EPA, thanks to Caleb Williams’ development and the defense’s dominating play. The Patriots, conversely, are dead last in net EPA.

Jacksonville deserves to be a favorite over New England. A line of -5.5 may seem too high, and it would be under normal circumstances. However, the Jaguars have an unparalleled advantage in this game, and that is their body-clock adjustment by remaining in England for a week. We saw this have a colossal impact last year when they destroyed a great Buffalo team coming off a blowout win against the undefeated Dolphins. The Jaguars weren’t even the better team in that matchup, yet they won easily. They’re definitely the better team here even though they have some glaring weaknesses.

I also love that the Jaguars were thoroughly embarrassed on an international stage. They were blown out, so they’re the laughing stock of England right now. I imagine they’re hearing about how bad they were everywhere they go. They’ll be incredibly motivated in this game. I love them to rebound this week.

I know I said I’d avoid betting large amounts on horrible teams, but the corollary was that it was OK if they were battling another bad team. That is certainly the case in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not that it matters too much for this matchup, but Tyson Campbell looks to be back this week, as he was limited in Wednesday’s practice. There’s a ton of sharp action on the Jaguars, but then again, that was the case last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyson Campbell is questionable after practicing on a limited basis all week. He could be back for this game, which would boost Jacksonville’s secondary. The sharps have bet Jacksonville up to -6.

LOCKED IN: We reported this on our show, and I also tweeted out that I would be locking in Jaguars -6. Sharp money moved the line to -6.5 across the board. You can check out our Saturday show here:

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Evan Engram over receiving yards. Engram is healthy and should have some big games on the horizon. The Patriots have been awful against tight ends. The best number is over 46.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m putting Engram in the same-game parlay with Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions, Demario Douglas over 48.5 receiving yards, and Tank Bigsby over 56.5 rushing yards. The Jaguars struggle against pass-catching backs, and Stevenston tends to get 3-4 receptions per game. Douglas has been on a tear lately, and the Jaguars recently surrendered a huge game to Josh Downs. Bigsby should trample the Patriots, who can’t stop the run at all. There’s a 30-percent odds boost on FanDuel, so this $25 parlay pays $343.31. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We saw the sharp action happen live on our show last night. The pros hammered Jacksonville at -6, then did so again later at -6.5. The best line is currently -7 -105 at BetMGM, as all the -6.5s are long gone.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars were embarrassed on an international stage. They also have the body-clock advantage.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -5.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Public on the Patriots, sharps on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 62-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.