2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Lions at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Lions had a huge win over the Cowboys, but they suffered a colossal loss when Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia. Hutchinson will be out for the year, which will severely diminish Detroit’s pass rush. He’ll sorely be missed.

Hutchinson was the only hope for the Lions to pressure Sam Darnold. The Vikings have an excellent offensive line, so someone like Hutchinson could have beaten that difficult matchup. The Hutchinson-less Lions won’t be able to rattle Darnold at all. Darnold will have plenty of time to torch Detroit’s weak secondary.

The Lions will at least hold up well against the run. They have one of the top ground-stopping defenses in the league, so they’ll be able to contain the Vikings’ rushing attack, especially if Aaron Jones is sidelined again.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff got off to a shaky start this season, but has been nearly flawless recently. He was quite literally flawless against the Seahawks back in Week 4, completing all 18 of his passes. He then torched the Cowboys relentlessly this past Sunday.

Goff will be put to the test this week. Brian Flores runs some chaotic blitz schemes that confused the younger quarterbacks he battled earlier in the season. Aaron Rodgers was even befuddled by it. Goff has been amazing against the blitz this year, completing 70.7 percent of his passes on a 12.1 YPA.

Goff has weapons galore, so he’ll be able to distribute the ball well while getting some great protection from his offensive line. He won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack, as the Vikings are ranked second against the run.

RECAP: This is a game I’m just going to sit back and watch. Outside of a potential player prop bet, I won’t be betting this game. This spread is pretty much what I expected it to be. Granted, my power ranking numbers say this should be Minnesota -3, but the EPA figures say that Detroit should be favored by 1.5.

In addition to the spread being about correct, we’re also getting no motivational angles. Both teams are coming off big wins, with Detroit blowing out Dallas, and Minnesota prevailing overseas. These are unfavorable spots in which I’d normally look to fade both teams, but we don’t get to do that.

If I had a lean, it’s on the Vikings because they’re coming off a bye, while the Lions don’t have Hutchinson. Plus, Detroit is a public dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Blake Cashman will miss this game. Casual bettors won’t know the name, but he’s been one of the best linebackers in the NFL this year. I’m still leaning toward Minnesota, but I’m not confident about the pick.

PLAYER PROP BET: The Vikings have an outstanding defense, but the only area where they’ve consistently allowed production is to tight ends. Sam LaPorta hasn’t been great this year, but he’s gone over the posted total in three of his four full games. The best number is over 41.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: While Blake Cashman is out, the Vikings might get Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Dalton Risner back from injury. I still have a lean on the Vikings, but I’m nowhere near betting this game.

TEASER: I’m teasing Lions +8 with Chiefs +8. Both underdogs are likely to keep their games close. If the Lions +8 covers, I will try to middle with 49ers -2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Vikings. A few sportsbooks have moved this line to -2. You can still get -1.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Lions are a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 77% (155,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Vikings have won 9 of the last 13 meetings (Lions won last 3 meetings).

Vikings are 45-36 ATS at home since 2014 (14-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.