2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Panthers at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels has completed six weeks of his rookie season, and he’s already the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. He has a higher price tag than Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, and even Josh Allen. That’s how amazing he has been.

Daniels has an incredibly easy matchup. The Panthers don’t do anything well on this side of the ball. They don’t generate any pressure on the quarterback. When I say that, I mean it. Carolina is ranked dead last in pressure rate, even though it blitzes at the seventh-highest frequency in the league. Think about that. The Panthers often send extra pass rushers, yet they never get there anyway, which exposes the secondary. This is a major reason why Carolina has allowed huge games to outside receivers. Terry McLaurin must be licking his chops.

It’d be bad enough if the Panthers were only this dreadful against aerial attacks, but they’re also abysmal when it comes to stopping the run. Tyler Allgeier just trampled the Panthers, so Brian Robinson Jr. will be in for a big day unless he’s sidelined again.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Given how horrible the Panther defense is, if Bryce Young were still starting, Carolina might be considered the worst NFL team of all time. Andy Dalton has provided some stability, but that’s even changing. The Panthers were down just 28-20 in the fourth quarter when they were driving down the field. They entered field goal range with some great Chuba Hubbard runs. The announcers even dubbed Hubbard the “Canadian Express.” Dalton, however, tried to force an awful throw to his tight end, which was promptly picked. He ruined a potential tie game in the fourth quarter, and perhaps this is a sign of things to come.

Having said that, this is a great matchup for Dalton. Washington has a very poor secondary that also has allowed some big games to opposing No. 1 receivers. Zay Flowers caught nine passes last week – in the first half alone! Diontae Johnson has been great ever since Dalton took over, and he should have another great performance in this game.

The Panthers also figure to run well, provided they don’t fall too far behind. The Canadian Express has also been excellent with Dalton, thanks to some great blocking. The Redskins have one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

RECAP: Forget everything I said about not betting crappy teams. I love the Panthers! Five units, baby!

OK, I’m kidding. I’m actually going to side with the Redskins. Carolina’s defense is in shambles. I underestimated this in my selection last week when I foolishly bet five units on the Panthers. Carolina had no chance of stopping the Falcons, and yet Washington has an even better offense!

I don’t plan on betting this game because at +7.5, the back door is going to be wide open for the Panthers. Dalton has tons of weapons at his disposal, so he could get there at the end versus a Washington defense that is not any good.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Josey Jewell or Taylor Moton in Wednesday’s practice. If they’re out, it’s going to be difficult for the Panthers to be competitive in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers are such a mess. They have cluster injuries everywhere. Diontae Johnson was DNP-DNP-limited, so he may not play. Meanwhile, Claudin Cherelus, who has played well in relief of the injured linebackers, is now out as well. That would explain why the action was steamed on Washington to -9.5.

PLAYER PROP BET: Terry McLaurin has had some monster performances this year, and this could easily be another one. The Panthers do everything poorly, but they’re especially atrocious against top receivers. The best number is over 63.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.

FanDuel has “Gronk Spike” specials with 30-percent boosts to anytime touchdowns. There are two available for $25 and $50. I’m using my $25 boost on McLaurin, who has scored four touchdowns in the past four games. This $25 bet pays $35. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still nothing here outside of Terry McLaurin props. Hopefully the Redskins don’t run as much as the Jaguars did to ruin another prop of ours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s so much public money on the Redskins, while the sharps haven’t weighed in on this game. Most books have -10 -110 listed, but you can save a bit at BetRivers, which has -109 listed. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Who in their right mind is going to bet the Panthers?

Percentage of money on Washington: 86% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Redskins are 11-27 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -8.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.