2024 NFL Picks – Week 7: Broncos at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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Week 6 Analysis: I’ve come to the realization that I need to stop betting bad teams unless they’re playing against each other. The Patriots, Panthers, and Raiders stood out to me as great plays in Week 6 because of some matchups and motivational angles, but all three self-destructed with penalties and other dumb mistakes. I was ready to complain about this and attribute it to more bad luck, but I realized that this is what bad teams do. Bad teams make lots of mistakes. I spent some time looking back at my picks, and I truly do have an awful track record picking these bad teams (unless they’re playing against each other), whereas I have a winning record otherwise. So, from here on out, I’m going to ignore the five or six worst teams in my NFL Power Rankings and/or EPA ratings unless they’re playing against each other.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

49ers, 3 units (win): A great way to start the week. We would have hit our same-game parlay had Jordan Mason not gotten injured.

Patriots, 4 units (loss): Horrible penalties and unlucky turnovers did in the Patriots. Again, I’m not betting on crap like this again unless they’re playing other crap.

Raiders, 3 units (loss): The Raiders had penalties to negate a touchdown, an interception, a sack to force a punt, and a big third-down conversion. I shouldn’t have expected anything otherwise.

Panthers, 5 units (loss): The Panthers (+6) were up 10-7, then trailed 22-17 at halftime and 28-20 after three quarters. They were driving down 28-20 in the fourth quarter to potentially tie, but Andy Dalton threw one of the worst interceptions you’ll ever see. It was all Atlanta after that. Of all the crappy teams we bet in Week 6, the Panthers had the best chance, and yet they ultimately lost 38-20.

Lions, 5 units (win): I submitted this early, and it was an easy winner.

Bengals, 4 units (win): We’ve had bad luck all year, but this was a very lucky victory. Not only did the Bengals score a touchdown late to cover, we also got an extra drive where Darius Slayton went over his receiving yardage prop. Can we get lucky in a second game?

Jets, 8 units (loss): The answer is no. The Jets outgained the Bills in total yards and yards per play, but one of the best kickers in the NFL missed from 32 and 43, and the Jets racked up 110 yards’ worth of penalties, including one infraction that negated a touchdown. Garrett Wilson also dropped a touchdown. Had the two kicks just gone through, we would have covered with the Jets winning 26-20 or losing 27-26. I don’t know what I did to deserve this horrible luck, but it’s been killing us since the beginning of last season. If anyone has any ideas on how to reverse my fortune, please let me know!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Many expected Spencer “The Silver Snake” Rattler to fail in his first start. He performed well in the opening half before collapsing toward the end of the game. Still, considering the state of his offensive line, as well as the absence of the concussed Chris Olave, the Silver Snake handled himself well, or at least much better than a Purple Parrot would have done so.

Unfortunately for Rattler, his matchup will be much more difficult in this game. Rattler had the luxury of battling a Tampa Bay defense ranked in the middle of the pack. The Broncos are third. They generate pressure at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, which is very worrisome for Rattler, given his atrocious blocking. Rattler will also face a constant blitz from Vance Joseph, which could cause problems for him. The one positive here for the rookie is that Patrick Surtain II figures to be sidelined with a concussion, but that’s a wash with Olave’s concussion.

Rattler would love to lean on Alvin Kamara, but that won’t be possible. The Broncos are worse against the run than they are versus the pass, but they still have a mid-tier ground defense. Kamara’s blocking is putrid, so he won’t accomplish much as a rusher.

DENVER OFFENSE: You’d figure the Saints would show up defensively for Rattler last week, but that didn’t happen. Instead, New Orleans allowed Tampa Bay to put up 51 on the scoreboard. Now, now, I know that’s unfair and misleading. The Buccaneers scored on a fumble return touchdown, after all. So, they really scored just 44 points.

The Saints have some glaring weaknesses, particularly when it comes to defending the middle of the field. They are horrid against slot receivers and tight ends, and they are also dead last against the run. The Buccaneers exploited all three areas with Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, and the two backup running backs.

The Broncos don’t project to be as successful. Their slot receiver is either Lil’Jordan Humphrey or DeVaughn Vele. The latter has had some quality PPR fantasy performances, but I don’t think he can be counted on to dominate a matchup. The Broncos also don’t have a functional tight end. Perhaps they’ll be able to run with Javonte Williams, but it’s not like this is a proven formula. Williams fumbled last week, so he could be benched.

RECAP: I’ve discussed backup quarterback handicapping at length this season, but I’ll mention the rule again: Backup-caliber quarterbacks tend to cover at a much higher rate than expected when they play against mediocre or bad defenses. Conversely, they have an abysmal cover rate against top-12 NFL defenses.

The Broncos don’t just have a top-12 defense; they’re ranked No. 3. Joseph will confuse Rattler with his constant blitzes, and Rattler will look like a fifth-round rookie as a consequence.

I’d like Denver in this game just for that aspect, but there are other reasons to bet them. The Saints have a dreadful defense ranked 25th in net EPA, while their offensive line is in shambles. The Broncos aren’t a great team by any means, but they should be able to dismantle the collapsing Saints on a short work week. I’m not in love with betting Denver as a favorite, but this is worth a two-unit wager.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Saints are in rough shape. They’ve already been dealing with so many injuries on the offensive line. Now, they’ll also be without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Pete Werner. The Broncos, meanwhile, won’t have Patrick Surtain, but they might be getting back Mike McGlinchey and/or Baron Browning. It’s no surprise the sharps have been all over the Broncos. I’m going to lock this in before all the -2.5s disappear. The best line is -2.5 -115 at BetMGM and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting two player props today. One is the Spencer Rattler under 186.5 passing yards. Everyone is excited about Rattler, but the great Broncos defense has tape on him, so he figures to struggle, especially without his top two receivers. The best number is under 186.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m also going to bet DeVaughn Vele over receiving yards. Vele is Denver’s new slot receiver, and the Saints allow a ton of production to the slot. Just think about what JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin did to the Saints in recent weeks. The best number is over 31.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss in the two player prop bets into the same-game parlay. We’re getting a slightly worse number on Rattler, but keep in mind that FanDuel has a 30-percent same-game parlay boost. My parlay will be Rattler under 183.5 receiving yards, Vele over 31.5 receiving yards, Juwan Johnson over 29.5 receiving yards, and Lucas Krull over 10.5 receiving yards. Both tight ends look great tonight because both defenses are terrible at defending the position. With the 30-percent profit boost, this $25 parlay pays $432.24. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Before I get to the final thoughts, I’d like to point out that we have a new pick ’em contest. It’s free entry with cash prizes, but only available to premium subscribers. Go here to enter! At any rate, the sharps are on the Broncos. Most books have -3 +100/-105 listed. The best line, by far, is -2.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.

Computer Model: Broncos -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 59% (286,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Dome.