NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
2024 NFL Picks: 42-45-3 (-$2,505)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: If you’re a fan of Squid Game, you’ll want to watch this video. The creator of the video watched the show at 0.25x speed and noticed some things:

I did catch the 002 thing as well, and even said aloud, “Huh, that’s weird.” I’m kicking myself for not putting two and two together, or rather 002 and 002 together.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The bye week came at the right time for the Chargers. They didn’t have either tackle against the Chiefs in Week 4. Moreover, Justin Herbert was hobbling around on an ankle injury following every play. Teams often prefer byes to be later in the year, but the Chargers are a rare exception.

The Chargers figure to have both tackles back against the Broncos, which will be huge because Denver is seventh in pressure rate. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are talented enough to keep the Denver edge rushers at bay.

While Justin Herbert will enjoy more time in the pocket than he did in Week 4, it’s unlikely that J.K. Dobbins will find much running room. Denver has one of the league’s top rush defenses, so Dobbins won’t be able to match his Weeks 1-2 production.

DENVER OFFENSE: Herbert and the tackles weren’t the only Chargers who missed action in Week 4. Joey Bosa and Derwin James were also sidelined, with James missing the game due to a one-game suspension. Bosa should be able to return this week.

Bo Nix has had his ups and downs this year, but this figures to be a down game if Bosa can return. The Chargers have two dynamic edge rushers who should be able to apply pressure on Nix. This will force Nix into tossing short, ineffective passes. This strategy will fail because any sort of negative play will ruin Denver’s drives.

The Broncos can’t exactly run the ball effectively, so that’s not a way they’ll be able to attack the Chargers. San Angeles is in the middle of the pack when it comes to rush defense, but Javonte Williams is not a very dynamic player, as his prior ACL injury sapped him of his explosiveness.

RECAP: The injury report will be crucial for the Chargers this week. They were missing so many players prior to the bye. You’d have to think that most of the players will be back from injury following the bye, but to what extent? And will Herbert be hobbling like he was in the two games prior to the week off?

I’m leaning toward the Chargers as a fade of the Broncos, who have had some misleading victories lately. They caught the Buccaneers and Jets when those teams were completely unfocused, and they were able to beat the Raiders, who were missing numerous players.

I was hoping for better line value with the Chargers because of Denver’s misleading victories, but that, unfortunately, is not the case. There’s no value at all with Chargers -3, so this is a pass for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite the week off, Joey Bosa still missed Wednesday’s practice. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt were both limited. If these players can’t make it back to the lineup, I’ll switch to Denver.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joey Bosa returned to a limited practice on Friday, so that might be good news for the Chargers, who will have Joe Alt and perhaps Rashawn Slater. The Broncos will be the team with offensive line injuries, as they won’t have their center and top two right tackles. That’s not good news for Bo Nix if Bosa plays. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Chargers if Bosa is active.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: We’re still waiting for the Joey Bosa news. I’ll be betting the Chargers if he plays.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa is inactive, so I won’t be betting the Chargers. I still think they’re the right side though. The sharps took the Chargers at -2.5, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Slight lean on the Broncos..

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Justin Herbert is 13-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Broncos are 34-18 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers were awful on this side of the ball on Sunday night. They had a positive matchup against a depleted Dallas defense, yet could barely move the chains. They were limited to just 276 net yards of offense.

The passing game was defunct because Justin Fields’ pass protection was shoddy, while George Pickens was benched due to a lack of effort. James Daniels’ absence made a huge difference in Fields’ blocking, and yet this was against a Dallas front missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Raiders are capable of producing pressure on the quarterback if Maxx Crosby is healthy. That hasn’t been the case in recent weeks, but Crosby’s ability to play last week is a good sign that he’ll be more effective this Sunday.

The Steelers couldn’t run the ball either. I don’t know how they’ll fix this in the near term. Perhaps Jaylen Warren’s return from injury will help, but Najee Harris looks like he weighs 300 pounds. The Raiders have a poor rush defense, but so did the Colts and Cowboys, and yet Harris couldn’t exploit those matchups.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Pittsburgh’s defense was a colossal disappointment as well on Sunday night. The Steelers couldn’t get off the field against the Cowboys in the fourth quarter, and Dallas moved the chains well in between the 20s all evening anyway. Pittsburgh forced some turnovers, but it wasn’t enough.

The problem for the Steelers is that they’re not producing any sort of pressure outside of T.J. Watt. They’re only 19th in pressure rate, which is a horrible ranking considering how amazing Watt is. This is great news for the Raiders, who haven’t blocked well. Thayer Munford’s potential return and Dylan Parham’s improved health will help in this regard.

The Steelers also handled the run poorly Sunday night. This was something new, as Pittsburgh was in the top 10 of this department previously. The Raiders don’t rush the ball very well, so I anticipate that Pittsburgh’s ground defense will be back to normal for this game.

RECAP: You want to bet on the Steelers when they were underdogs or very small favorites. It becomes troublesome when they’re -3, especially on the road. Mike Tomlin has just a 40-percent cover rate when he’s favored by three as a visitor.

It’d be one thing if these Steelers were a good team with an explosive offense, but they just lost to the Cowboys and couldn’t generate anything offensively. With Pickens benched, they have no dynamic threats downfield, while their pass protection just isn’t there with Daniels sidelined. The Raiders may not seem like a challenging opponent, but this is a team that beat the Ravens and Browns this year. They just lost in a blowout to the Broncos, but they were missing countless players due to injury. It’s likely that they’ll be healthier this week, and that includes Crosby, who wasn’t nearly himself last week.

Assuming the Raiders are healthier this week, I’ll like them to pull the upset against the Steelers, who look like they’re in a tailspin. They were effectively blown out at Indianapolis before a late comeback, and they just suffered a defeat to a horrible Dallas team. I don’t see why they should be favored by three on the road against a team that has shown the capability of upsetting opponents.

I’m going to be on the Raiders for multiple units. How many exactly will depend on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders switched quarterbacks to Aidan O’Connell, which I love. What I don’t love is that Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller both missed Wednesday’s practice. I thought about moving this to four units, but I’d like to see those guys log some practices.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers are down all their edge rushers not named T.J. Watt, as Alex Highsmih, Nick Herbig, and DeMarvin Leal are all out. Remember how good the Cowboys offense was in the second half on Sunday night? The Steelers didn’t have those three players, so they could have similar issues rushing the passer. Speaking of pass rushers, Maxx Crosby will play. Jakobi Meyers and Thayer Munford are questionable after both going DNP-DNP-limited. I still plan on betting three units on the Raiders.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: The Raiders have a number of questionable players on the injury report. The inactives list will be crucial in determining how many units I bet on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Raiders. The good news is that Maxx Crosby will play. The bad news is that Jakobi Meyers is out. I still like the Raiders for three units. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but if you want to bet the Raiders as well, you can find a viable +3.5 at DraftKings, which is priced at +3.5 -118. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Everyone still loves the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 80% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: There were memes made of Kirk Cousins stealing people’s money when the Falcons lost their first game of the year. Think those people feel differently now? Cousins had his best performance yet as Atlanta’s quarterback on Thursday night, throwing for 500 yards against the Buccaneers in an overtime victory.

Cousins should be able to pick up where he left off in this easy matchup. The Panthers produce no pressure on opposing passers. In fact, no team generates less pressure, so Cousins will have all day to find his weapons against a secondary that can’t defend outside receivers. Seeing no pressure is huge for Cousins, who has a wide-ranging dichotomy when kept clean versus seeing heat in the pocket.

It may not even matter because Cousins can just feed Bijan Robinson. The first-round running back hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but he’ll have an opportunity to do so in this game, especially if both of Carolina’s starting linebackers are sidelined again. Shaq Thompson is on injured reserve, while Josey Jewell’s status is up in the air.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers won’t be able to stop the Falcons, so they’ll have to beat them in a shootout. That wouldn’t have been possible with Bryce Young, but it could be with Andy Dalton under center.

Atlanta has some major defensive issues. The team ranks 25th in adjusted defense EPA. Part of the reason for this low ranking is that the Falcons generate the fifth-least pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dalton is protected very well, so he’ll also have tons of time to find his talented receivers.

The Falcons are no better against the run. They are also fifth-worst in that regard. Chuba Hubbard has been tremendous since Dalton supplanted Young, and he could have his best game yet in this easy matchup.

RECAP: Holy cow, what an overreaction! The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3. My rankings and the EPA numbers say this is about correct. I made this line Atlanta -2.5, and the EPA figures have that as being correct. Yet, because of last week’s two results. this spread has ballooned to -6!

Look, the Falcons were great last week, while the Panthers sucked. But the NFL changes so much every week. Prior to scoring 36 on the Buccaneers, the Falcons were outgained by 100 yards versus the Saints. And the Panthers crushed the Raiders and kept pace with the Bengals before being stymied by a dominant Chicago defense.

Despite what we saw last week, these teams are not far apart. The Falcons have needed late-game heroics in all three of their wins to avoid an 0-5 start, while the Panthers have been much better with Dalton. Atlanta is just 15th in net EPA, thanks to its 25th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 14th in offense, so unlike last week, they’ll be able to move the ball.

Moreover, the motivation favors the Panthers. They were just blown out, so they’ll be playing at their best this week. The Falcons, meanwhile, just won on national TV in overtime, so there’s bound to be a letdown, especially with a game coming up against a tougher opponent (Seattle). This is a top-three play for me this week. The Falcons, who may be unfocused, play nothing but close games, and this spread is way too inflated. The Panthers upset these Falcons at home last year, and while Cousins wasn’t the quarterback, Carolina’s offense is much better than it was last season as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Taylor Moton, Austin Corbett, and Josey Jewell all missed Wednesday’s practice, which was disappointing to see. I don’t expect Corbett to play, but if Moton and Jewell are both sidelined, I won’t be betting five units on Carolina.

PLAYER PROPS: Drake London’s targets have increased in every single game this year, as he and Kirk Cousins had to take some time to develop chemistry. London should continue to thrive in this matchup, as Carolina has been dreadful to outside receivers all season. The best number is over 65.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: A big deal is being made of Carolina’s offensive line because Taylor Moton and Austin Corbett are out. Corbett was Carolina’s worst blocker, so his absence won’t be too impactful. Moton is great, but Yosh Nijman is a quality backup. I’m not concerned, especially in this matchup because the Falcons have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: Chicago demolishing the Jaguars makes me feel better about the Panthers. They’re still a top play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprises on the inactives list. The sharps bet the Panthers at +6.5, but not at +6. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Falcons just won on national TV, while the Panthers were blown out.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.

Computer Model: Falcons -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 85% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 13 of the last 20 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff didn’t get off to the best start this year, nearly losing to the Rams and then suffering a defeat versus the Buccaneers because of some careless mistakes. Whatever was wrong with Goff was corrected in the previous game when Goff completed all 18 of his passes in a perfect victory against the Seahawks.

Seattle has a better defense than a Dallas unit missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. While the Cowboys still got some pressure on Justin Fields on Sunday night, they won’t have any sort of luck versus Goff because the Lions possess an elite offensive line. Goff will be kept clean for most of the afternoon, allowing Goff to find his weapons against a Dallas secondary that is missing some personnel.

Goff may actually not need to do much because the biggest advantage the Lions have on this side of the ball is their running game. The Cowboys weren’t really challenged in this regard the past two weeks, as Devin Singletary and Najee Harris ran behind beat-up offensive fronts. That won’t be the case with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL recently, but that is far from the case now. Losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz was crushing. Smith’s replacement, Tyler Guyton, has been a human turnstile, so this is something that greatly benefits Aidan Hutchinson.

The Cowboys could still have some success moving the ball with Dak Prescott finding CeeDee Lamb against a questionable Detroit secondary. However, the drives will be inconsistent because of all the pressure Detroit will bring.

Dallas also won’t be able to count on Rico Dowdle bailing the offense out once again. Dowdle ran surprisingly well Sunday night, but the Lions have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, so that won’t happen again.

RECAP: It’s almost amazing to think about how different this spread is compared to what it was last year. The Lions were +4.5 at Dallas, and now they’re -3 or -3.5 at the same location. That’s an eight-point swing! I’m not saying it’s not justified, but I wanted to note how quickly things can change.

The Lions were robbed of a victory in that game, and I think they’ll get their revenge. The Cowboys stink. They’re the eighth-worst team in net adjusted EPA. People may think they’re not bad because they just won in Pittsburgh, but that’s far from the truth. With Parsons and Lawrence sidelined, they’re outclassed at every position by the Lions, except for WR1, and even that’s close between Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I love the idea of fading this horrible Dallas team off a win on national TV, and the sharps do as well because they’ve been betting Detroit. They must recognize that this spread is too short, which is the case per my numbers. My projected line is Detroit -5, while the EPA rankings say this should be -4.5.

The Lions are one of my top plays this week, and I’m going to lock this in now because the spread is moving to -3.5. It’s already -3.5 in many sportsbooks, but you can get -3 -115 at FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Micah Parsons missed Wednesday’s practice. Meanwhile, the Lions didn’t ave a single player out of practice. Unfortunately, locking this pick in proved to be unnecessary because there are -3 -110s available now.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The juice is beginning to rise toward Detroit again. A move to -3.5 wouldn’t surprise me. I think what happened was that DaRon Bland practiced fully earlier in the week, but was DNP on Friday.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: The line has indeed moved to -3.5. I still like the Lions at -3.5, but at three units max.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys won’t have Caelan Carson, so they’ll be missing two of their top three cornerbacks in addition to their top three edge rushers. I really don’t know how they keep this game close, barring some weird turnovers. The sharps are on the Lions, which is not a surprise. The best line current line is -3 -124 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Lots of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 75% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 38-30 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I’m still trying to figure out what Zac Taylor was thinking during overtime against the Ravens. Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns against Baltimore’s troubled secondary, so why did Taylor opt to run thrice with a running back who accumulated fewer than 50 rushing yards until that point? It’s almost like Taylor hit his head and thought Burrow was a rookie again, or he completely misread the clock and thought the field goal was the last thing he’d do in overtime. If I owned the Bengals, i’d sit Taylor down in a room with a clock and have him tell me what time it is because I’m not convinced that he’d be able to do so.

At any rate, I expect Burrow to remain hot. The Giants have a talented pass rush, but unlike Geno Smith, who took some sacks versus New York last week, Burrow is capable of releasing the ball quickly and accurately. The Giants have issues in the secondary that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can exploit.

The Giants are better against the run than the pass, so it’s not all bad for them on this side of the ball. The aforementioned running back who had fewer than 50 rushing yards, Chase Brown, has his work cut out for him in this matchup, but he may have the entire workload because of Zack Moss’ injury. Brown is more explosive than Moss, as he sometimes runs like he’s shot out of a cannon.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones is coming off his best performance of the year, which was shocking because he didn’t have Malik Nabers or Devin Singletary at his disposal. Despite this, Jones delivered countless strikes to Darius Slayton, all while bulldozing through Seattle’s defense as a ball-carrier.

Nabers should be back this week, which presents a problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s secondary is also a mess, so Nabers could go insane. We just saw Zay Flowers torch the Bengals, thanks in part to Dax Hill’s injury. Hill could be out for a while, which means the Bengals will have immense problems stopping talented receivers.

The Bengals also have well-documented issues when it comes to containing the run. Derrick Henry didn’t post great numbers last week because the Bengals stacked the box. It’s unclear if Cincinnati will do that again. If it doesn’t, rookie Tyrone Tracy could have another huge performance after dashing right through Seattle’s front seven for 127 rushing yards.

RECAP: This is do or die for the Bengals. Teams have come back from 1-4 to reach the playoffs before, but 1-5 is a tall task. This is a game Cincinnati can’t take lightly.

The Bengals should be able to demolish the Giants. New York has some serious holes in its secondary that Chase and Higgins can exploit. The Bengals also have the dynamic edge rushers to pressure Jones.

I’m usually not a fan of betting -3.5 spreads. I always say that if you take a -3.5 line, you need a great reason to do so because -3.5 hits less often than any other NFL point spread. Well, there are three great reasons. I mentioned the first, which is Cincinnati’s desperation. The second is that we get to fade a bad team coming off an upset win. And the third is that great quarterbacks tend to cover at a high rate following a defeat. Burrow is 16-7 against the spread following a loss, and I expect that to be 17-7 after this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Malik Nabers missed Wednesday’s practice with his concussion. It’s a bad sign that he’s not even limited yet, but he still has time to get there.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malik Nabers was ruled out, which is music to my ears because I would have bet the Bengals regardless.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop is Darius Slayton over 49.5 receiving yards. Slayton went off last week, and he could have another great game because Cincinnati is so weak to outside receivers. The Bengals won’t even have top cornerback Dax Hill anymore, which makes things even easier for Slayton. The best number is over 49.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m throwing the Slayton over receiving yards bet into a parlay with Zack Moss over 15.5 receiving yards, Chase Brown under 13.5 receiving yards, and Tyrone Tracy over 58.5 rushing yards. Moss is Cincinnati’s pass-catching back, and the Giants are weak to those. Brown hasn’t topped 12 receiving yards in any game this year, and he’s banged up. Tracy looked great in relief for Devin Singletary, who will be out again. FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost, so this $25 parlay pays $332.56. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: I’m holding out hope for a -3, but I’ll be shocked if we get that spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for -3. There aren’t even -3.5s available anymore! The best line is -4 -110, which you can find at Bookmaker and BetRivers. The sharps haven’t touched this game. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals are desperate for a win.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.

Computer Model: Bengals -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Tons of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (200,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 16-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York, home of all the crappy sports teams everyone hates because they are stupid people. “New Yawk! New Yawk! I’m from New Yawk!” Bunch of losers, especially compared to my hometown of Philadelphia, which is the best city in the world and has the best sports team of all time, my Philadelphia Eagles! New York sucks compared to Philadelphia! What do you think, guys? Am I right, or do I have to stab you in the eye with a fork until you agree with me!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Yang. The word fork really hilariousness. I learn the other day that fork are called that because of the amount of needle he have at the end of himselves. If you count the needle, you get one, two, threeve, four, five. Fork have five needle. And five are one less than four, and four sound like fork, so somebody have the idea to call this utensment a fork probably because he missed counted, and if he great at math, which real difficult because times table get real tough after one, then he probably gonna call this utensment a fivek.

Reilly: Emmitt, you miscounted the number of needles on a fork. I know this because when Mother forces me to do the dishes every night, I count the number of needles on each fork and cite people I need to get revenge on, and then I go to my room and stab voodoo dolls the same amount of times. For starters, there’s Herm Edwards, Charles Davis, Donald Trump, and Old Daddy. That’s four, so that’s one fork. One revenge fork for me.

Tollefson: Reilly, I used to have a revenge list as well. I’d sit in my basement and write down names as I smeared lipstick on my face until this rich guy who called me names in high school called and apologized. This made me realize that I had to take matters into my own hands. So, I rounded up all the girls who laughed at me in high school and enslaved them. These were my first batch of female slaves. Only two are left because the others didn’t clean and cook while naked efficiently enough, so off to the woods they went.

Reilly: Tolly, I hope they never find the bodies you buried because it would suck if my only friend went to prison for killing women. It sounds like they deserved it though. Speaking of women, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. It’s funny that you bring up slaves because I have an exclusive report citing that Aaron Rodgers has been trafficking female slaves across the border, which is why he goes to the desert so much. Roger Goodell is expected to suspended him for two games. And speaking of slaves, we have this guy who has slaves in his country despite looking like Winnie the Pooh. Sir, what’s your name? I would have done some research on you, but I have way more important things to do.

Xi Jinping: Oh bother, my name is Winnie the Xi Jinping, and I have a rumbly in my tummy. Would you happen to have a morsel of honey?

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I’ll look later. My producers are telling me to ask you about the slaves you have in your country of China. China? Sounds made up.

Xi Jinping: Oh bother, I put those people into trains and concentration camps because not only did they steal my honey, but they stole Rabbit’s carrots, Tigger’s trampoline, and Piglet’s ham. Now, everyone has a rumbly in their tummy and everyone is sad like our pal Eeyore.

Reilly: Hey Xi, whenever I have a rumbly in my tummy, I command Mother to make me macaroni and cheese, and she obliges if I’ve done all my chores. Maybe you should have done your chores! And what kind of name is Xi, anyway? Guys, if you didn’t know, Xi is the Roman numeral for 11. I learned that in Mother’s homeschool class this week. Mother made me Student of the Week. President Camel Toe Harris, you answer all the hard questions, so do you think I’m the best at Roman numerals in this booth?

Kamala Harris: Roman numerals come from the Roman Empire. The Roman Empire was an Empire that was Roman. It was also a big empire, which is bigger than a medium empire, and much bigger than a small empire. Because when you have something big, it’s bigger than the thing that’s not big, especially when that thing is small, which is not big, or even medium. That reminds me of when I was a child and grew up in a middle-class family. If you compare that to empires, we were a middle-class empire.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, Kamuhla, however you pronounce it, and believe me, she doesn’t even know how to pronounce it, and she doesn’t even know what race she is, she says she’s Indian, then she says she’s black, next thing she’ll be Icelandish, Kamala is once again a total disgrace and a total fraud, and she thinks she knows something about empires, let me tell you, she knows nothing about empires, she knows even less about empires than that rock over there, and that rock knows nothing about empires, believe me, I talked to that rock, and he knows nothing about empires, and Kamala knows even less about empires, no one has ever seen anything like it, but Trump knows everything there is to know about empires, even the little things, but not just the little things, but the big things, because Trump knows all about the little things, unlike Kamala, who only knows little things, like that brain of hers, very microscopic, while Trump has a big brain, some say the biggest brain they’ve ever seen, I don’t know about that, but that’s what they tell me, so it must be true.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE BIGGEST BRAIN I HAVE EVER SEEN IS THIS PINK BRAIN WHO RIDES AROUND IN THIS ROBOT BODY, AND HE AND HIS FRIEND, WHO HAS CLAWS FOR HANDS, TRY TO COMBAT THESE TURTLES, WHO HAVE A RAT FOR A SENSEI.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! You’re making me jealous talking about friends because I don’t get to hang out with any. You might think it’s because no one likes me, but that’s not true. Mother says I’m so special that people are envious of me. Isn’t that right, New Daddy? Aren’t I special?

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, you’re soooo special. You’re so special that you should be in the front seat of the short yellow bus.

Reilly: Oh, New Daddy, you’re funny because you don’t know cool things as an adult. Us cool kids like to sit in the back, even if the bus is a short one!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about transportation vehicles, Kevin. Let’s begin with the short yellow bus you mentioned, Kevin. That sounds like a perfect place for you, Kevin. Right in the back where you like it, Kevin. Let’s segue into city buses, Kevin. And speaking of segues, how about a Segway, Kevin? What do you think of airplanes, Kevin? Seems like you’d poop on a plane because of a fear of heights, Kevin. How about helicopters, Kevin? Let’s touch on trains, Kevin. Sounds like something you would have done with Old Daddy, Kevin, before Old Daddy abandoned you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO PULL A TOLLY, AND I’M GOING TO SIT IN MY BASEMENT, WRITE DOWN YOUR NAME ON THE REVENGE BOARD, AND SMEAR LIPSTICK ON MY FACE! We’ll be back after this!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: We currently don’t know if Josh Allen will start this week. Allen suffered a concussion last week, but forced his way back into the game when the Bills recovered a turnover. Allen proceeded to settle for a field goal and then bomb it from his own 3-yard line three times in a row on the ensuing possession. The Bills may be in trouble for skirting concussion protocol.

The Bills would need a clear-headed Allen for this matchup. The Jets have the second-ranked defensive EPA, which is hardly a surprise when considering the talent in their secondary. Buffalo doesn’t have any receivers capable of getting open, so this is a very lopsided matchup, especially if Khali Shakir misses action again.

The way to beat the Jets on this side of the ball is to run at them. This presents a problem because Buffalo doesn’t run very often. James Cook is a skilled back, but more so as a receiver than a rusher.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers wasn’t quite clear-headed against the Vikings in London last week. While Rodgers wasn’t concussed, he was befuddled by the opposing defense. Brian Flores threw some looks at him that confused Rodgers, forcing him into some negative plays, including a pick-six.

Rodgers has a much easier matchup in this game. Not that Sean McDermott is a poor defensive coach or anything, but the Bills are down several players to injury. Von Miller and Ed Oliver were the latest defenders to hit the injury report, and their absences really hurt the pass rush. The Bills consequently sacked C.J. Stroud only once last week, so Rodgers should have a clean pocket.

The Bills also have issues stopping the run. They rank 23rd in that regard, and they weren’t even tested very much last week when they were tasked with stopping Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale. Containing Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is a completely different story.

RECAP: In the olden days when I first began running this Web site back in 1999, there’s no way this spread would have been posted anywhere. Allen suffered a concussion versus the Texans and will have to clear protocol to play.

Regardless, I’ll be on the Jets. If Allen suits up, he’ll be in a horrible position as a quarterback returning from a concussion, which has a very poor track record of covering. If Allen is out, we get to fade Trubisky against a Jets defense ranked second in adjusted EPA. Regardless of which quarterback is under center, it’ll be difficult for Buffalo’s quarterback to get the ball to his receivers, given how great New York’s secondary is.

It must also be noted that the Bills have a dubious track record against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets have given Allen fits here in recent years, and I imagine we’ll see the same thing against this Monday night.

The cherry on top is that the Jets fired Robert Saleh. Backing teams following coach firings has a great track record of success. Players will be motivated to prove that they weren’t the problem, so everyone on the Jets will be giving 110 percent.

If you have any hesitation of betting the Jets after what you saw the past two weeks, don’t be too concerned. the Jets weren’t focused versus the Broncos, and they simply ran into a superior opponent when playing against Minnesota. The injury-ravaged Bills aren’t as good, so the Jets should be able to prevail. In fact, they are my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No injury report yet. I’m hoping a +3 line appears at some point, but it’s nothing but +2.5s across the board.

SATURDAY NOTES: James Cook, Khalil Shakir and Ed Oliver have all been out of practice so far this week. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, has been limited. I still love the Jets.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: James Cook and Khalil Shakir returned to a limited practice on Saturday, but they could be less than 100 percent after barely practicing all week.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This spread dropped to Buffalo -1 with sharp money coming in on the Jets and the public betting Buffalo. The public crushed it this week so far, so we may see a reversal in this game. Any hope of getting +3 is gone, but I still love the Jets.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop from this game is Breece Hall over 24.5 receiving yards. The Bills are very weak to pass-catching backs, and there might be a squeaky-wheel narrative with Hall, who has disappointed the past two weeks. The best number is over 24.5 -110 at BetMGM.

I’m throwing in the Hall over receiving yards prop into our same-game parlay. The other legs will be Allen Lazard over 34.5 receiving yards, Tyler Conklin over 26.5 receiving yards, and Braelon Allen over 34.5 rushing yards. The Bills are weak to slot receivers and tight ends. I also expect the Jets to be winning, so Allen will get ample work in the second half against a bad rush defense. This $25 parlay can be juiced with a 30-percent odds boost on FanDuel. It pays $397 with the odds boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: James Cook is out. I usually don’t pay much attention to running back injuries, but Cook is such a big part of Buffalo’s passing game, so this hurts the Bills. This is a classic pros versus public game, where the public is on the Bills, while the sharps are on the Jets. The best line is +1.5 -110 at BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jets just fired their head coach.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.5.

Computer Model: Bills -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Public on the Bills, sharps on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 82% (316,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Josh Allen is 11-8 ATS off a loss since his second season. ???

Aaron Rodgers is 130-90 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-20 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-22 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.