NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
2024 NFL Picks: 42-45-3 (-$2,505)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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Week 5 Analysis: This was one of the most frustrating weeks in quite some time. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 3 units (loss): I was definitely wrong about this game. I didn’t think Aaron Rodgers would be confused by Brian Flores’ schemes, but he was.

Bengals, 4 units (loss): Yet another bad beat. This looked like a sure victory for a while. The Bengals, as underdogs, were up 24-14, 31-21, and 38-28. Joe Burrow threw a bone-headed interception at the end of regulation while trying to milk the clock, and then when the Bengals had the ball in Baltimore territory in overtime, they didn’t bother passing once even though Burrow lit up the Ravens for five touchdowns. The Bengals missed a field goal in overtime because of a botched hold of the ball, and Baltimore responded by winning. I don’t get how we keep getting this unlucky.

Bills, 3 units (loss): I wouldn’t necessary call this a bad beat, but we could have won this pick. The Bills fell behind 17-0 because the receivers dropped a million passes, including some potential deep touchdowns. Buffalo stormed back to tie the game at 20, but Josh Allen suffered a concussion, and while playing concussed, he heaved three completely inaccurate bombs from his own end zone to help set up Houston’s game-winning field goal.

Dolphins, 3 units (win): We almost lost this game at the end as well, but that would have been a bad beat because the Dolphins outgained the Patriots by nearly 100 yards. The only reason this game was close in the first place was because Miami had a punt blocked and missed two field goals, including one chip shot.

Browns, 3 units (loss): Woof, not even close. Sorry about this one.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): I would have gone to five units if the stupid 49ers didn’t rush their many questionable players back from injury.

Steelers, 5 units (loss): As if the day hadn’t gone against us enough, we lost this pick on the very last real play of the game. The Steelers led for a majority of the evening, but their defense surrendered a touchdown on fourth-and-goal with about 20 seconds remaining.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49er skill players have to be excited for this game. After seeing what Tyrone Tracy and Darius Slayton did to the Seattle defense last week, how could they not be?

The Seahawks are one of the weaker teams in the NFL against the run. They couldn’t stop Tracy last week or Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2, among other rushing attacks. The Seattle front will have a very difficult time in this matchup, given that the 49ers run the ball better than most teams in the league. Jordan Mason should have a huge performance.

Mason’s running will set up easier throwing downs for Brock Purdy, who will have his entire arsenal at his disposal. That was technically the case for a couple of games prior to Week 5, but not really because Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t quite himself as he worked himself back from missing all of training camp. Aiyuk dominated Arizona and will be able to do the same thing in this matchup, given what Slayton accomplished.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The 49ers appeared to dodge a bullet with the Fred Warner injury. It seemed as if Warner would be sidelined for a game or two, but he managed to play this Sunday. Then again, he didn’t look nearly like himself, as he had his worst game of the year.

This has to be music to Seattle’s ears. The Seahawks already appeared to have a good matchup with Kenneth Walker on the ground. The 49ers ranked 22nd in rush defense EPA, but Walker will be able to be established as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He saw seven targets last week.

The Seahawks will also be able to move the ball downfield with Geno Smith connections to D.K. Metcalf and the other receivers. San Francisco doesn’t have an amazing secondary, especially with Talanoa Hufanga always coming in and out of the lineup due to injury. The cornerbacks aren’t amazing, so this is an area in which Seattle can attack.

RECAP: I’m going to post the link in my next pick capsule, but I put the 49ers in the underrated list of my overrated-underrated page for the first time all year. San Francisco is often a team that is thought of highly, but there are questions that are surfacing because of the team’s 2-3 start. The 49ers would have beaten the Cardinals had their kicker not gotten injured even though they were fully expected to be distracted with this game on the horizon.

The 49ers are a much better team than the Seahawks, who built their 3-2 record on beating bad opponents at the beginning of the season. They barely beat the horrible Patriots and let the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins hang around with them. They were also tripped up with a look-ahead spot, but they aren’t nearly as good as San Francisco.

If you’ve been reading my site for a while, you know where I’m going with this. My No. 1 rule for Thursday games is to select the superior team if they’re going to be focused. We know the 49ers are better than the Seahawks, and it’s obvious that they’ll be dialed in, given that they’re just 2-3 and coming off a loss.

This would have been a four-unit pick at -3. Unfortunately, the sharps moved this line to -3.5, off the top key number of three. I still like the 49ers, but will be downgrading this to a three-unit selection unless a -3 line reappears.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks could be down their top two defensive backs. No. 1 cornerback Tariq Woolen was ruled out, while safety Julian Love is questionable after nothing but limited designations in practice. This is obviously good news for the 49ers, though we’re still not getting any -3.5 lines.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop for tonight is Deebo Samuel over 49.5 receiving yards. Samuel did nothing last week, so this could be a squeaky wheel situation. Moreover, Samuel has led the 49ers in receiving in each of the past three meetings versus the Seahawks, who will be missing two players in their secondary. I hate promoting ESPNBet, but they have the best number by far, which is over 49.5 -135.

Speaking of ESPNBet, they have a 30-percent profit boost for tonight’s same-game parlay. I’m putting the Samuel prop with George Kittle 50+ receiving yards, Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards, and Kenneth Walker 25+ receiving yards. The Seahawks are also weak to tight ends and running backs. The 49ers, meanwhile, allow tons of receiving yardage to opposing backs, and Walker has cleared 30 receiving yards in his two games back from injury. This $20 parlay pays $234.

I’m adding one more parlay because Caesars has a 50-percent boost on a same-game parlay with a max bet of $10. My parlay will be 49ers -3.5, Jordan Mason anytime touchdown, Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown, Samuel over 52.5 receiving yards, and Kenneth Walker over 22.5 receiving yards. This $10 parlay pays $150 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both top cornerbacks are out. I still like the 49ers for three units. The sharps took San Francisco at -3, but haven’t touched this game at -3.5. Unfortunately, there are no viable -3s available. The best line is -3.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Sharp action on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 76% (315,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won the last 5 meetings.

49ers are 42-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Seahawks are 21-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Clear, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has struggled this year, and really since last season when he began suffering a barrage of injuries. The reason for his downfall this year was his offensive line. Lawrence is poorly protected, so it’s no surprise that he just had his best performance against an injury-ravaged Indianapolis defense.

While the Colts couldn’t put any pressure on Lawrence, the Bears certainly will be able to do so. The Bears have produced 16 sacks through five games, and they’re ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate. They’ll be able to harass Lawrence, who will be forced to hurry throws into an opportunistic secondary.

If there’s one way the Jaguars can move the chains, it’s via the rushing attack with Tank Bigsby. The Bears are just mediocre versus the run, and Bigsby has almost looked like Emmitt Smith in recent games. Going back to Travis Etienne in a non-receiving role would be a huge blunder, but not one that Doug Pederson would necessarily avoid.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While the Bears have a suffocating secondary, the Jaguars do not. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year. We saw this last week when every Colts player was productive.

Whether or not Caleb Williams can take advantage of that is a different story. Like Lawrence, Williams is coming off the best performance of his season, but he’s difficult to trust because of how erratic he’s been. He has plenty of upside, but makes plenty of bone-headed decisions. His receivers will help him by getting wide open.

Williams was aided by D’Andre Swift the past two weeks, but I don’t anticipate that happening again. Swift has taken advantage of two horrible run defenses in the past couple of games, but Jacksonville is much better versus the rush, so I don’t expect much out of Swift again.

RECAP: I truly hate these 9:30 a.m. games, so I’m glad I’m not enticed to bet this one. I’m torn on this game, as there are good arguments to be made for both teams.

As with the Thursday games, I like betting the superior team in London because the inferior squad doesn’t have the preparation time to make a great game plan to take down the better foe. I’d say that’s Chicago, except the Bears have a rookie quarterback who’s still pretty inconsistent at this stage of his career. I also don’t like Chicago’s coaching staff very much.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a mess. They beat the Colts, but Indianapolis was dealing with so many injuries. Lawrence has regressed rapidly this year, and Pederson is utterly clueless. However, the Jaguars know how to play in London better than anyone. This gives them some sort of advantage that I don’t know how to quantify. I’m going to side with Chicago, but will not be betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Talented Bears safety Jaquan Brisker may not play due to a concussion. There’s sharp money coming in on the Jaguars. I’m going to change my pick, but I don’t like Jacksonville enough to bet them.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I hate D’Andre Swift as a runner, but he’s been a solid receiver out of the backfield this year. The prop for his receiving yards is only 17.5 even though he’s had at least 22 receiving yards in each of the past four games. Even better, the Jaguars have allowed a ton of receiver production to running backs. The best number is over 17.5 -115 at BetRivers.

I’m going to throw in the Swift receiving prop with D.J. Moore over 63.5 receiving yards, Rome Odunze over 37.5 receiving yards, and Caleb Williams over 233.5 passing yards. We’re basically attacking Jacksonville’s horrible secondary. The Jaguars are solid against the run, but can’t stop the pass at all, especially when it comes to defending outside receivers and running backs. This $25 parlay pays $175 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will be without Jaquan Brisker and potentially Tyrique Stevenson, so Trevor Lawrence could have better success than initially anticipated. The sharps are betting Jacksonville.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jaguars. They moved the line from +2.5 to -1.5. I don’t quite understand why, and I won’t be betting either side. If you like the Jaguars, you can get -1.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.

Computer Model: Bears -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Everyone is betting the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 75% (161,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Jaguars are 62-108 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-52 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 6-11 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills +1.5

Seahawks -7

Buccaneers +2.5

Vikings -2.5

Ouch. The public got crushed again. Not only did the publicly backed sides go 1-3; many also lost on the 49ers-Seahawks teaser. The public is now 7-14.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Colts -1

Bears -1.5

Texans -7

Falcons -6

Bengals -3.5

Bills -2.5

Not one, not two, not three, not four, but five road favorites. And the lone exception is a neutral-site favorite! Road favorites this decade have covered just 49.1 percent of the time, so keep that in mind if you want to join the public.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels didn’t quite keep up 80-percent completion pace in Week 5. In fact, he was close to a 50-percent completion rate. However, he still had a dominant performance, using his legs to pick up significant gains and completing several deep passes.

Daniels will continue to torch the opposition. This may seem like a difficult matchup if your ‘member berries are telling you that Baltimore has a strong defense, but that’s hardly the case. The Ravens are 21st in adjusted defensive EPA, as their secondary has some severe issues. Their cornerback play is poor, so Terry McLaurin and the other receivers should be able to get open for Daniels.

The Ravens are much stronger versus the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect huge performances from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. It’ll all be on Daniels’ shoulders, so it’s a good thing that he won’t see much mayhem in the backfield against the Ravens’ middle-of-the-pack pressure rate.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The strength of the Ravens is obviously their rushing attack. They battled two teams that couldn’t stop the run in the Bills and Cowboys, and were able to obliterate them as a consequence. The Bengals also struggle versus the run, but Cincinnati put so many men in the box, daring Lamar Jackson to beat them, and he did very easily.

The Redskins may decide to utilize Cincinnati’s game plan, or they’ll be trampled by Derrick Henry. They have the fourth-worst adjusted EPA run defense. They weren’t threatened in this regard last week, or even in the prior game because they established such a huge lead versus Arizona that it neutralized James Conner. Henry will have success in this contest.

The problem with stacking the box is that the secondary will be exposed more so than it already has been in the early part of the season. The Redskins have some very weak cornerbacks, so they won’t be able to keep pace with Zay Flowers.

RECAP: I’m shocked the public isn’t pounding the Redskins. This looks so easy, doesn’t it? The Redskins are 4-1, and yet they’re near-touchdown underdogs. This almost looks like a gift.

Except, the public isn’t betting on Washington. It’s about a 50-50 split for the squares with the sharps being on the Redskins. I guess people think that the Redskins can’t quite compete with a top team like the Ravens.

My line says this spread is way off. I have the Ravens favored by two, and so do the EPA numbers. However, I’m not convinced that I have the Redskins graded appropriately. They’ve battled four teams ranked 20th or worse in defense, and the one exception was the Browns. Forgive me if I’m not quite buying them yet.

That said, I’m not going to rush to bet the Ravens either. They’re coming off an emotional overtime win, so I’m not sure they’ll be fully focused, though it’s possible that Daniels will have their attention. The other danger with picking Baltimore is that if the two projected spreads I mentioned earlier are correct, then we’re giving up a ton of value. This is a pass for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of key Ravens veterans – Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey – missed Wednesday’s practice, but they could easily return to practice Thursday and be fine. It’s just something to monitor for now. I’m still on the Redskins, and the sharps are as well.

PLAYER PROPS: The Ravens have allowed every single tight end they’ve played to reach at least 31 receiving yards, yet Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is only 25.5. Baltimore has played against some good tight ends, but even Mike Gesicki and Noah Gray have gotten to 31+ receiving yards. Ertz saw eight targets last week, so he’s heavily involved in the offense. The best number is over 25.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey are questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. I’m still leaning toward the Redskins, but probably won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey will play. I’m still leaning toward the Redskins, but not enough to bet them. The sharps have taken both sides. The best line is +7 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

Will the Ravens be focused after an overtime win against a divisional opponent?

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public has come in on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 75% (146,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 15-2 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This isn’t too bad, but I’d like to point out that when this commenter made this post, I had removed any potential units from the Raiders. So, I didn’t actually bet against his Broncos.

This may not be hate mail, but rather crazy mail:

Is this the real-life Don Tollefson? Is he angry at me that I make fun of him every week?

Now this is real hate mail:

Imagine taking anyone with a sunflower in their bio seriously at all. What a loser.

And finally, here’s something fun. I responded to this crazy lady’s post and got some feedback:

This is a preview of an impending Jerks of the Week entry for whenever I finally finish my Las Vegas series.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love was truly bailed out by his defense last week. Love threw a horrible, underhanded interception from his own end zone that was returned for six. This was part of the reason the Packers trailed at the midway point of the game, but Xavier McKinney and the Green Bay defense helped charge the team back to victory.

This is a great matchup for Love, but then again, so were the Rams. Love, however, is another week removed from the injury he suffered in the NFL on Ice game to start the season, and this week was his original scheduled return before the Packers rushed him back early. It’s fair to expect big improvements from Love this week, especially against a defense as bad as Arizona’s.

Even if Love doesn’t improve very much, the Packers should still be able to run the ball effectively. The Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Josh Jacobs should have another strong performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As mentioned, Green Bay’s defense was primarily responsible for beating the Rams. The Packers didn’t even have Jaire Alexander, who is expected back this week. Alexander isn’t the same player he once was, but his presence will help slow down Marvin Harrison Jr., who made a huge catch during Arizona’s game-winning drive last week.

There still might be an opportunity for Kyler Murray to succeed in this game. For the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense, the Packers don’t get that much pressure on the quarterback, so Murray won’t be pressured as much as he was last week against the 49ers. This should be able to counter Alexander’s return.

James Conner, on the other hand, faces a difficult matchup. Green Bay’s run defense is much better than its pass rush. Following a rocky week 1, the Packers have clamped down on the rush pretty well, so Conner won’t find much running room.

RECAP: I promise that I’ll have some multi-unit picks for the Sunday slate, but this is another game in which I don’t have a strong opinion. The Packers have the ability to be a juggernaut when Love gets completely healthy, but we don’t know when that will be. The Packers won last week, but Love wasn’t quite his usual self. This might be the week he’s back to 100 percent, given the original timeline of his injury.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been competitive in every game of theirs with the exception of their Week 4 blowout loss to the Redskins. They have the offense to keep pace with Love, but their defense is miserable and could allow far too many points. It’d be one thing if we were getting +6, or even +7 because those are such huge key numbers, but we’re not.

I think this spread is right on the money at +5, so I don’t see any sort of edge in betting either side. I’m going to side with the Packers on the chance that Love reverts to his former self, but there’s no guarantee that’ll happen this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s notable that Christian Watson returned to practice for the Packers, albeit on a limited basis. I don’t expect him to play this week, but he could be back sooner than anticipated.

PLAYER PROPS: We backed Josh Jacobs last week, and we’ll do so again. The Cardinals are terrible against the run. They’ve allowed a rusher to accumulate at least 71 yards on the ground in every single game, save for Week 2 when they blew out the Rams. The best number is over 67.5 rushing yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury of note in this game is that Jaire Alexander may return after practicing on a limited basis all week. That would be important in slowing down Marvin Harrison Jr., though it’s unclear if Alexander will be 100 percent. I still have no strong take on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander will be active. There’s a bit of sharp money on the Packers, but not a substantial amount. The best line is -5.5 -110 across the board. Seriously, every single sportsbook I use has -5.5 -110 listed!

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Packers could look ahead to their game against the Texans next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 60% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 52-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: I ranted about the Texans offense last week, and it was yet another week of the team struggling on early downs. Bobby Slowik, for whatever reason, calls so many runs on early downs for his crappy, backup running backs, and it never works. You’d think he’d make an adjustment for the Joe Mixon injury, but he hasn’t done that.

It doesn’t sound like Mixon will be back this week, so we’re going to see more early-down carries given to Dare Ogunowale and Cam Akers. This won’t work because the Patriots are decent against the run. This will force C.J. Stroud into unfavorable passing situations. He’s thrived in those for the most part, but not so much last week after Nico Collins injured his hamstring. If Collins can’t go this week, Houston will have a diminished passing attack.

Still, it might just be enough. The Patriots have the No. 1 pass funnel defense in the NFL. They were down both safeties last week, so if that’s the case again, the Texans could have lots of success on their deep throws again, even if Collins doesn’t play.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: There are some rumblings that there might be a quarterback change this week. There are arguments for and against this. New England’s offensive line is a disaster, so Drake Maye could get killed in David Carr-type fashion. Then again, Maye has great mobility, so he’ll be able to use his legs to combat all the pressure he’ll see.

The Texans generate pressure at an average rate, so it doesn’t look like a terrible spot for Brissett/Maye, even with all the offensive line injuries. I don’t expect either quarterback to take advantage of Houston’s weakness, however, which is the secondary. The receivers just aren’t very good, to put it nicely.

Perhaps the Patriots can establish something on the ground. They run the ball well when they’re not getting blown out, and Rhamondre Stevenson looked motivated last week when Jerod Mayo threatened him with a benching. The Texans are ranked in the middle of the pack against the rush, so Stevenson will have some opportunities.

RECAP: Texans-Patriots may seem like such a lopsided matchup, but I’m not so sure. The Texans haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points all year. The metrics hate them as well. The EPA numbers say that Houston is 22nd in the NFL. This is why the EPA numbers say that this line should be Houston -4.

A big problem with the Texans is their coaching. Slowik has been a terrible play-caller, opting to run way too much on early downs with pedestrian backs. Mixon may return this week, but the Patriots have mostly been strong against the run this year. They’re much weaker to the pass, and there’s a chance Collins could be limited or sidelined with his hamstring.

There’s also a chance the Texans will be unfocused in this game. They’re coming off a big, last-second win versus the Bills. Next week, they have the 3-2 Packers. Will they concentrate against the pathetic Patriots?

I like the Patriots right now. I will love them if they make a quarterback change. This will be a three-unit bet for now, but I may increase my projected wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Houston’s injury report is staggering. Nine players missed Wednesday’s practice, including Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. Meanwhile, the Patriots have made the switch to Drake Maye, which makes me like them more. I’m bumping this up to four units.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Dalton Schultz under last week, which looked great until Nico Collins got hurt. Schultz will be utilized more moving forward. His prop is only 29.5 despite the fact that he’s gotten to 34 receiving yards in each of the past two games. More importantly, the Patriots have allowed some massive games to tight ends. Just look at Jonnu Smith last week for example. The best number is over 29.5 -130 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Patriots down from +7 to +6.5. The Texans won’t just be down Nico Collins; they won’t have two starters in the secondary with Jimmie Ward and Kamari Lassiter ruled out. Joe Mixon might have a chance to play, but he’s listed as questionable. A couple of injuries to watch for the Patriots: Kyle Dugger was DNP-limited-limited, while Marcus Jones was limited all week. Both are key members of the secondary.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Patriots, as they brought this line down from +7 to +6.5. There are no more viable +7 lines available, unfortunately. The best line is +6.5 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Texans are coming off a last-second win versus the Bills, and they have to play the Packers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Free money for the public.

Percentage of money on Houston: 83% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Chance of rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This spread screams that Derek Carr will be sidelined. The Saints were -2.5 on the advance spread, so a 13-point loss to the Chiefs wouldn’t move the line five points. Carr suffered an oblique injury in the fourth quarter, and he’s currently scheduled to have an MRI on it. His status is unknown, but the oddsmakers believe he’ll be sidelined.

If Carr is out, it’ll either be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler. The latter was more impressive in the preseason, but either signal-caller will have a plus matchup against the Buccaneers, who can’t defend the pass whatsoever. Kirk Cousins just threw for 500 yards on Thursday night. Cousins is obviously much better than either Haener or Rattler, but the Saints possess a couple of talented receivers who can thrive with a backup quarterback.

Alvin Kamara, conversely, isn’t expected to do much. Kamara got off to a monster start this year because of some very easy matchups, but the Buccaneers are stout against the run.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers are typically great against the run, the Saints have been weak against it. They’re in the bottom three of adjusted EPA rush defense. The Chiefs were able to establish Kareem Hunt on Monday night, but I’m not so sure the Buccaneers will have the same success with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. The issue here is that Tampa run blocks so poorly that it’s difficult for them to run on anyone.

If the Buccaneers can’t run the ball in this matchup, they won’t have very many explosive plays. The Saints rank in the top 10 in pressure rate, and Tampa Bay’s offensive line hasn’t been very good since Luke Goedeke has gotten hurt. Meanwhile, Mike Evans will have to deal with Marshon Lattimore, which hasn’t been a very good matchup for him.

One player who will thrive for Tampa Bay is Chris Godwin. The Saints are very weak to slot receivers, as evidenced by what JuJu Smith-Schuster did Monday night. Godwin plays in the slot, so he should have a great performance.

RECAP: I love betting on backup quarterbacks when they play against mediocre or bad defenses. This has a cover rate above 60 percent over the past half-decade. Tampa Bay qualifies as having such a defense, ranking 22nd in adjusted EPA.

I realize that betting Haener, and Rattler, to a lesser extent, isn’t very favorable. However, the betting history favors them.

I’m going to bet a few units on the Saints. The exact unit count will be revealed once we know Carr is out for sure, and we see where the spread settles. If, however, Carr plays, I’ll be on the Buccaneers as a fade of an injured quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Spencer Rattler will start for Derek Carr this week. This would normally make me like the Saints, but New Orleans is playing off a Monday, while the Buccaneers previously played on Thursday. This is a pretty big advantage for Tampa Bay. I won’t be betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chris Godwin receiving yardage prop is so low. Godwin has generated at least 64 receiving yards in four of his five games this year, yet the prop is just 62.5. Also, the Saints have allowed so much production to slot receivers. Just look at what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last week. The best number is over 62.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers won’t have their center, Graham Barton, but they’re likely getting some reinforcements back this week. It seems like Antoine Winfield, Luke Goedeke, and Antoine Winfield Jr. will all play, which is huge for them. The Saints, meanwhile, will be without yet another offensive lineman, as Lucas Patrick joins Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz on the sideline. That’s not an ideal situation for Spencer Rattler! I’m going to switch my pick to the Buccaneers, but I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Buccaneers at -2.5 and -3, but not at -3.5. I’m still torn on this game. The best line is +3.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Saints could be playing at 110 percent for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5 (Carr).

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

Computer Model: Saints -2 (Carr).

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Everyone is fading Spencer Rattler.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 70% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 18 of the last 26 meetings.

Road Team is 135-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles didn’t stand a chance against the Buccaneers prior to their bye. They were down A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. Jalen Hurts had diminished pass protection and no viable receivers at his disposal. The result was an ugly blowout defeat.

It seems like all three offensive players will be back this week. Nothing is certain at the moment, but it’ll be surprising if at least two don’t return, and I fully expect all three to be on the field. The Eagles would have needed all hands on deck against this No. 1 Browns defense from a year ago, but Cleveland isn’t as potent defensively this season. The Browns currently rank 16th in adjusted defensive EPA. The problem is that with Myles Garrett playing through injuries to both feet, the pass rush is in the middle of the pack.

With Johnson presumably back, Hurts will have much more time against the Browns than anticipated to start the year. He’ll be able to connect with his talented receivers. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley will thrive against a Cleveland run defense that couldn’t contain Brian Robinson Jr. last week.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Most organizations would have benched Deshaun Watson already. Watson is completely broken as a quarterback. He doesn’t keep his eyes downfield when pressured, and his shoulder is so busted that it looks like he shot putting the ball. His release time is so long that he’s taking so many unnecessary sacks.

The Browns, however, have stated that they’ll continue to roll with Watson, which is a massive mistake, especially in this matchup. The Eagles have great talent on their defensive line, so they shouldn’t have much of an issue generating pressure on Watson, given the injury issues with Cleveland’s offensive line.

The Eagles have been weak to the run this year, but there’s not much of a rushing attack to be concerned with in this game. Jerome Ford isn’t getting much behind Cleveland’s battered offensive line, so Philadelphia doesn’t have to be concerned about this.

RECAP: How in the world are the Eagles favored by nine? That was my first reaction to seeing this spread. However, the problem with taking the nine entails betting on Watson. He’s a terrible quarterback. Cleveland simply is not bettable against good teams with Watson under center. I would like Cleveland if it made the correct decision and moved to Jameis Winston. Kevin Stefanski isn’t doing that, however, and he may lose the locker room in the process.

I’m going to be on the Eagles here because Watson sucks, and Philadelphia could be motivated after suffering such an embarrassing loss prior to the bye. I don’t think I’ll be betting the Eagles, however, because this spread is just too large. Not getting any key numbers with a team that hasn’t played well since Week 1 isn’t a great feeling. Then again, maybe this is just sticker shock, and betting Philadelphia is the right move.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The big news in this game is that A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson all practiced fully on Wednesday. The other big news is that Myles Garrett missed Wednesday’s practice with an Achilles. He’s been limited with foot injuries, but I believe Achilles is new.

PLAYER PROPS: A receiving yards prop of 66.5 seems absurdly low for A.J. Brown. I know he’s coming off injury, but he’s been practicing fully. The Browns have also allowed tons of production to opposing WR1s. The best number is over 66.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news, bad news for the Browns. The good news is that Cleveland will have both of its tackles on the field for the first time all year. The bad news is that the Browns will be down numerous defensive backs. Juan Thornhill was already out, and now Jabrill Peppers, Ronnie Hickman, and potentially Denzel Ward will join him on the sideline. This is not good news for a team dealing with Philadelphia’s receiving corps. And yes, everyone on the Eagles will be back. Philadelphia doesn’t have a single player designated with injury. I’d think about betting the Eagles if the Browns didn’t get both Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin back. I’d feel like such a n00b fading the Browns in their first game with both tackles.

TEASER: As discussed on the Saturday video…

I’m going to tease the Eagles to -2.5 and Jets to +8. That opens up a middling opportunity on Buffalo -2, but I love the Jets so much that I may not take it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns will officially have both tackles on the field for the first time this year. The Eagles will also have their players back from injury. There was some sharp action on the Browns at +9.5 and +9. The best line is -8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles have the Giants next, but they’re coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Plenty of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Eagles are 7-18 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -9.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: We have no idea who’s starting at quarterback for either team. For the Colts, Anthony Richardson was limited in practice all last week, but Joe Flacco got the nod anyway. Flacco played a brilliant game in the rain, but still lost by three. Flacco was much more accurate than Richardson ever could have been, which was essential against Jacksonville’s poor cornerbacks.

Richardson seems like the better quarterback to have in this matchup. The Titans have a defense ranked in the top 10, but they have a weakness, which is their linebacking corps. The Colts would do well to establish Richardson as a runner so he can dance around Tennessee’s pedestrian linebacking corps. This would really help Indianapolis, especially considering that Jonathan Taylor is unlikely to play.

Having said that, Flacco would have some success against Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans were supposed to have two lockdown cornerbacks entering the year. That hasn’t been the case because L’Jarius Sneed has struggled, while Chidobe Awuzie landed on injured reserve. Unless Sneed improves over the bye, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce should do well here, as should Josh Downs in the slot.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It’s unclear which quarterback will start for the Titans either. Interception machine Will Levis drew the first four starts, but suffered an injury against the Dolphins. If Levis can’t go, it’ll be Mason Rudolph, who didn’t look great against Miami.

Despite what we saw in Week 4, it would be most ideal if Rudolph started this game. Not only is he the healthier quarterback, he also won’t make bone-headed decisions to cost his team. There will also be an opportunity for Rudolph to have a solid performance against the Colts, who just allowed Trevor Lawrence to have his best game of the season. Indianapolis is ravaged by injury and can’t stop the pass at all.

The Colts aren’t great against the run either. They’ve been trampled in some games this year. This includes Tank Bigsby’s performance last week in which Indianapolis allowed Bigsby to look like Walter Payton. Tony Pollard figures to have a solid showing this week.

RECAP: This game is very difficult to handicap at the moment because we don’t know who will start at quarterback for either team. We also don’t know how healthy Richardson and Levis will be if either makes the start.

I’m going to pencil in the Titans for now, but I’ll have some important updates later in the week. Check back later, or watch us on YouTube for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will Levis practiced fully, prompting this line to move from Titans +1 to -2.5. Why the excitement for Levis, when all he does is sabotage games? I have no idea. I won’t be betting on either side.

PLAYER PROPS: Calvin Ridley’s 42.5 receiving yards prop is too low. He had 50-plus receiving yards in the first two games before being shut down by Jaire Alexander. In the next game, the Titans had a huge lead and barely threw the ball. The Colts allow tons of production to outside receivers, and Ridley will be motivated to rebound off two dismal performances. The best number is over 42.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m confused by the Colts injury report. I read that Michael Pittman Jr. would be out for several weeks, but he practiced fully on Friday. Josh Downs did as well, and both are questionable. Anthony Richardson had a full practice on Thursday, but was downgraded to limited on Friday. Meanwhile, Ryan Kelly will return, while Kenny Moore could be back, too. There’s a lot to unpack there, and yet we can’t even unpack everything because of the uncertainty with the receivers. With all of these question marks, I don’t think I can bet this game, though I am switching to Indianapolis now that the line is +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson is out. This doesn’t make too much of a difference to me. I’m more torn on this game than any other this week, though the sharps bet the Titans. The best line is +2.5 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -1.

Computer Model: Titans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No one wants any part of the Titans.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 77% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Titans have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.