2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Raiders at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The NBC broadcast for the Chiefs-Ravens opener repeatedly discussed the depth-of-target figure for Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore quarterback struggled mightily in that regard versus the Chiefs, which wasn’t a surprise at all. I spent lots of time this offseason talking about how the Ravens’ offensive line regressed as a result of three blockers leaving free agency. I thought there was a chance that the front office would be able to obtain adequate replacements, but this was not the case.

If Jackson thought that he was hounded often in the opener, he hasn’t seen anything yet. The Raiders have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL. They didn’t have the best matchup last week against the Chargers’ improved offensive line, and yet they limited the opposing output rather well until a late touchdown when the team had surrendered all hope. They’ll have a much better pass-rush rate versus Baltimore.

The Ravens will want to establish Derrick Henry to ease some of the pressure off Jackson, but they couldn’t even run on a weak Kansas City ground defense. Henry is washed up and doesn’t have the great blocking he once possessed in Tennessee. Plus, the Raiders were No. 2 versus the run last year.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As mentioned in the opener, Gardner Minshew sabotaged a potential Raiders victory last week with some bad decision-making. Zamir White did as well with his lost fumble. The Raiders led for most of the afternoon, but ended up losing because of sloppy ball security.

The Raiders may not project well in most models in this game, but there is an avenue for offensive success in this game, and that would be with the talented receivers going against Baltimore’s secondary. This is another area in which the Ravens have regressed. They used to maintain one of the NFL’s best secondaries, but their cornerback play is mostly lackluster now. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers figure to thrive in Baltimore.

Conversely, the Raiders won’t run nearly as well. It would help if they still had Josh Jacobs, but the Ravens are much better against ground attacks, so White will struggle once again.

RECAP: One of the reasons I bet the Chiefs in Week 1 is because I wanted to fade the Ravens. Baltimore was the No. 1 seed last year, but the team won’t be nearly as good this year. The offensive line sucks outside of two spots, while the defense isn’t as good as it used to be.

The Raiders have a great edge in the trenches. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, so they’ll be able to swarm Jackson and keep his depth-of-target figure low. Meanwhile, their receivers will have an easy time with Baltimore’s cornerbacks.

Despite the Ravens regressing and being overrated, this spread is inflated. A line of -9.5 is way too high for the Ravens against a competent opponent. I know the Raiders let us down in Week 1, but that game was a couple of plays away from swinging the other way, so I like the value we’re getting with the underdog. This is a big play for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was a +10 line for a minute this week, but the sharps jumped on that rather quickly. Unfortunately, I wasn’t quick enough to bet it. I’m still perfectly fine with the Raiders at anything above +7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps keep betting the Raiders, which isn’t much of a surprise considering how overrated Baltimore is. The Ravens will be missing Nate Wiggins and probably Kyle Van Noy, so they’re going to be even worse than they looked in Week 1.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going under on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards. This can’t be a surprise. Henry is washed up, while his offensive line lost three starters in the offseason. The Raiders were No. 2 in rush defense last year. The best number is under 74.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders earlier in the week at +10 to +9. I wish we got +10, but that was available for mere minutes. Getting +8.5 is still fine though. The best line is +8.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Ravens have the Cowboys next week, though they’re coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -11.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Why would the public not slam the Ravens?

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lamar Jackson is 11-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.