2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Bengals at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was almost odd to see the Chiefs have some explosive play-making ability in the opener. Rashee Rice was terrific for them last year, but they haven’t had anyone to stretch the field ever since Tyreek Hill departed. That changed with Xavier Worthy. The rookie didn’t touch the ball very much in the opener, but when he did, he made it count. He scored two touchdowns to help the Chiefs defeat the Ravens.

This is not good news for the Bengals. Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill were not tested in the opener against New England’s pathetic receiving corps. They certainly will be in this matchup, and I have my doubts that they’ll be able to contain Kansas City’s enhanced weapons.

Another issue for the Bengals is their run defense, which has severely degraded in the wake of D.J. Reader’s departure. Cincinnati couldn’t get off the field versus the Patriots because they couldn’t contain Rhamondre Stevenson. Isiah Pacheco has much better blocking than Stevenson, though Andy Reid is known to forget the running portion of his playbook at times.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of forgetting the running portion of the playbook, the Bengals didn’t bother establishing anything on the ground during the opener. Zack Moss and Chase Brown ran a combined 12 times despite the margin never exceeding two touchdowns. It’s unclear why Cincinnati didn’t bother running at all.

Then again, it’s hard to be too excited about a backfield comprised of Moss and Brown. The Chiefs are weaker to the run than the pass, but I don’t think they’ll be threatened by Moss and Brown, especially when considering that Cincinnati’s offensive line continues to disappoint.

The Bengals’ offensive line will be a liability in pass protection. Kansas City brings great pressure from Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and others, so Joe Burrow will constantly be harassed. If this were Burrow in midseason form throwing to a healthy Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I’d think he could overcome it, but it’s unclear if any of these players in question are 100 percent.

RECAP: I’ve vowed never to bet on Burrow again in Weeks 1-2. I mean it. We’re getting alleged great line value here with the Bengals moving from +3.5 to +6. This means we push with a key number, so Cincinnati looks enticing. But I just can’t pull the trigger.

The Bengals, for whatever reason, have been perennially slow starters with Burrow. In the first two weeks of the season of the Burrow era, they’re 1-8 straight up and 2-6-1 against the spread. They just struggle early and pick up steam late in the year. This is what they always do. I thought they might buck that trend this year against the Patriots because they actually talked about their slow starts, but apparently not. They looked lost and unfocused in an embarrassing home loss.

Considering that, I’m going to side with the Chiefs. I will not be betting this game, however, because of the lost line value. Again, going from -3.5 to -6 is a huge deal. I can totally get backing the Bengals with that apparent value and perhaps hoping for a back-door cover, but based on history, we can expect them not to play their best in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bengals at +6, dropping the line to +5.5. I have to believe that this was just a value bet, given how much line movement there has been as a reaction to the Week 1 games.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d bet on the Bengals if Joe Burrow and his receivers were healthy, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Burrow doesn’t seem like he’s 100 percent because of his wrist, while Tee Higgins will be out again. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, still may not be in shape. The Bengals also have issues with their offensive line. I’m going to bet two units on the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The line has moved to -6.5. It looks like the sharps and public are on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, some sharp and public money moved this line to -6.5. I still like the Chiefs for two units. The best line is -6.5 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

A good lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 68% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Joe Burrow is 36-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 14-6 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 85-24 SU, 60-48 ATS (48-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.