2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Bears at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud did not play his best game last week. He had some errant throws, including one very questionable one that easily should have been intercepted. Despite this, the Texans still scored 29 points en route to a road victory over the Colts.

Stroud doesn’t have the easiest matchup in this game. The Bears can bring pressure with Montez Sweat and newly acquired Darrell Taylor, and they have an All Pro cornerback in Jaylon Johnson who can shut down one of the Houston receivers. The problem for Chicago is that Stroud has three dynamite receivers at his disposal, not to mention Dalton Schultz. The Bears don’t have the best depth at cornerback, so this could be an issue in this game.

Another problem for Chicago is focusing on Joe Mixon. The former Bengal picked up where Devin Singletary left off last season, exploding for 159 rushing yards against a strong Indianapolis ground defense. The Bears are soft in the middle of their defensive line, as evidenced by their inability to clamp down on Tony Pollard last week, so Mixon figures to have another great outing.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I’ve mentioned my disdain for the Bears’ offseason results many times throughout the summer. Chicago had tons of cap space, but didn’t bother addressing the trenches on either side of the ball. This hurt Caleb Williams in the opener, as he saw tons of pressure from the Titans and struggled as a result.

Tennessee may have a top-five defense in the NFL, so it could be argued that this was simply a very difficult matchup for Williams. However, the Texans have personnel capable of hounding quarterbacks as well. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will harass Williams, forcing him into more poor throws. Williams is fortunate that he didn’t commit any turnovers last week, but there will be plenty of give-aways to come if the Bears can’t figure out how to protect their franchise quarterback.

The Bears will have to figure out some way to move the ball because it probably won’t happen on the ground. The Texans just restricted Jonathan Taylor to 48 rushing yards on 16 carries, so it’s unlikely that D’Andre Swift will be able to help out Williams very much.

RECAP: I was hoping people wouldn’t catch on to how bad the Bears were in Week 1. They “won” the game, but they were severely outclassed by the Titans. Tennessee had nearly double the yardage. It’s a joke that the Bears won, let alone covered the four-point spread.

Unfortunately, it seems as though everyone saw it. The advance spread on this game was -3.5, yet it’s up to -7 now. This was a game that stood out to me as a potential bet with Houston, but it’s hard to bite the bullet and accept a 3.5-point swing against you through the key number of six to the No. 2 key number of seven. Then again, it could just be that this is sticker shock.

Houston is a completely superior team to the Bears, who would probably be underdogs of 7.5 or more had they actually lost to Tennessee. Also, consider that this is another instance in which we have a rookie quarterback battling a smart, defensive-minded coach in DeMeco Ryans. I’m going to bet the Texans, but not as much as I would have if the spread were still -3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are pounding the Bears, dropping the line from +7 to +6. I wonder if they’re on to something. Chicago was so bad against one of the top defenses in the NFL, so the team should be better this week as positive regression to the mean. I’m going to remove the projected two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans may not have their top offensive lineman, Juice Scruggs, who was downgraded in practice each day. The Bears will be missing their center as well, while Keenan Allen didn’t practice all week. All of this is a wash for me, so I’m still leaning Houston.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze sound like they’ll be limited if they play. I may bet the Texans. Check back around 7:45 for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen is out, though the Texans will be missing Juice Scruggs. The sharps have been betting the Bears aggressively, driving this line down from +6.5/+7 to +6 or even +5.5 in some places. If you like the Texans, the best line is -5.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.

Computer Model: Texans -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Sharp money on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.