2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Jets at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers’ return was supposed to be a panacea for the Jets, but the defense forgot to show up on Monday night. The stop unit was downright dreadful, as tackling Jordan Mason seemed like an impossible task for New York. The Jets couldn’t get a backfield comprised of Mason and Brock Purdy off the field, as the 49ers held the ball for 25 of the first 37 minutes.

Going against the Titans will be an easier task, but it won’t be a simple one. The Titans have some great talent on this side of the ball. Tony Pollard appears to be his former, explosive self, and he has some great blocking in front of him, as rookie J.C. Latham was able to blast open some huge running lanes versus Chicago. The Jets are even worse to the run than the Bears are, so Pollard should have a huge game. There’s also the receivers, as Calvin Ridley adds an element Tennessee didn’t have last year. With Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II banged up, Ridley, Tyler Boyd and DeAndre Hopkins should be able to get open.

The one problem here is Will Levis, who absolutely self destructed in the fourth quarter last week. All Levis needed to do was hand the ball off to Pollard, and Tennessee would have prevailed. Levis could certainly continue to sabotage the Titans, but I have to imagine he’ll take a much safer approach this week to preserve his job.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Though the Jets lost Monday night, Rodgers was not a disappointment. Outside of one ball he forced that was deflected and picked, he performed well. He even revitalized Allen Lazard’s career, which only Rodgers is capable of doing.

Rodgers has a tall task ahead of him in this game, however. The Titans have assembled some tremendous personnel on this side of the ball and now have the potential of being a top-five defense this year. They completely embarrassed Caleb Williams last week, and they’ll continue to thrive versus the Jets. Their two No. 1 cornerbacks will be able to restrict Garrett Wilson and Lazard, while Rodgers will see some pressure.

The Titans also project to be stellar versus the run. Second-round nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat had a great debut last week, and he’ll help stuff Breece Hall. Then again, Hall is capable of going the distance on any play, so all it takes is one play for Hall to break past everyone.

RECAP: The Jets have a brutal schedule to begin the year. Not necessarily as far as the opposition is concerned, but rather when it comes to travel. Following a battle versus the 49ers, the Jets had to fly home across the country and then go to Tennessee. After that game, they have just three days of rest before playing on Thursday night. I’d say that I don’t know what the NFL is thinking when designing a schedule like this, but the truth of the matter is that they aren’t thinking. They just don’t care.

Given that the Jets could be both exhausted and distracted by an impending divisional game in four days, I’m not sure if we’ll get their best against the Titans. This is problematic because the defense doesn’t match up well against the Titans, who will want to run as much as possible after the Levis debacle. The Jets are weak to the run, so Tennessee should be able to remain on the field and suck up the time of possession, much like San Francisco did on Monday night.

Tennessee’s defense, meanwhile, will be able to get the Jets off the field. The Titans may have one of the best stop units in the NFL, yet most people still don’t know that. I think if you were to ask the common fan which team had the better defense in this matchup, most would say the Jets. I don’t believe this to be the case – especially with the Jets’ defensive backs banged up – so I believe the Titans should be favored.I love that we’re able to get good line value based on misinformation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans at +4 to bring the line down to +3.5. All looks good on the injury report for a big play.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have some serious concerns in their secondary. D.J. Reed was a mid-week downgrade and missed practice on Friday, which is a huge problem because Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II got banged up last week and will have less rest than usual ahead of this game. An injured team with a divisional game on the horizon likely won’t be focused for this non-divisional contest.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tony Pollard over 48.5 rushing yards. Pollard is getting the bulk of the carries, and the Jets are awful against the run. I’m also going to bet Pollard at 100+ rushing yards at +625. The best number is over 48.5 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a surprise. I still love the Titans. The best line is +4 -110, which is available at several sportsbooks, including BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jets have a divisional game in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -4.

Computer Model: Jets -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public still likes the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 128-89 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-20 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 80 degrees. Light wind.