2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Buccaneers at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were an easy play in the NFC divisional round battle against the Buccaneers because of Tampa Bay’s horrid pass defense. The secondary was woeful all year and was projected to struggle against Detroit’s passing attack. This turned out to be the case, as the Lions scored early and often en route to a win and cover.

The Buccaneers project to be even worse against the pass in this game because Antoine Winfield will be sidelined. Tampa Bay’s top defensive back will sorely be missed against a Detroit receiving corps that just saw Jameson Williams finally emerge as a potent threat.

Tampa Bay can at least generally play the run well, though that didn’t matter in the aforementioned playoff game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 107 rushing yards, thanks to Detroit’s prolific offensive line. It’s so incredibly difficult to stop the Lions’ ground attack because of how tremendous their front is, and I don’t see the Buccaneers doing much better this time.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Lions aren’t the only team with a great matchup edge in this game. The Buccaneers possess one as well with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Detroit improved its secondary this offseason, but that wasn’t apparent against the Puka Nacua-less Rams last week. Evans, despite being 31, is still a dynamic threat, and he’s expected to enjoy a great performance once again versus Detroit.

The Lions will have to counter this with their pass rush. They can get great pressure on the edge with Aidan Hutchinson, but Baker Mayfield is well protected in that area. The interior blocking isn’t as strong, so it’ll be imperative for D.J. Reader to play after missing last week’s game.

Speaking of Reader, he’ll be a huge help in the Lions’ efforts against Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. The latter was the better runner last week, so perhaps Tampa Bay will feed him the ball more often. However, nothing will work on the ground this Sunday, as Detroit has one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: No one in recent years has been higher on the Lions than me, and no one was lower on the Buccaneers than me last year. If you think this means that I’ll be picking the Lions then, well, you’re right.

Betting and picking are different things, however. I won’t be betting the Lions because the Buccaneers seem to have the motivational edge. The Buccaneers will be seeking revenge from the playoff loss, while Detroit is coming off an exhausting overtime battle versus its former quarterback. I would even consider siding with the Buccaneers, but they have so many defensive back injuries. Winfield’s absence is going to make it very difficult for Tampa Bay to stop Detroit’s aerial assault.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Penei Sewell missed Wednesday’s practice, which is a slight worry. The Buccaneers have greater problems in the secondary, however. The sharps have taken Detroit at -7 to push the line to -7.5, while the public is betting the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Buccaneers. I don’t think the Lions will be fully focused because they’re coming off a tough overtime game. In addition to that, I worry about the team’s health. Ifeatu Melifonwu is out again, which was a huge deal last week. Kerby Joseph is dealing with a hamstring, so there’s a chance the Lions could be missing both of their safeties versus Tampa’s receivers. Meanwhile, Penei Sewell barely practiced, while Marcus Davenport has been ruled out. There are a ton of injuries for a team that certainly doesn’t have the motivational edge. Not only am I switching my pick to Tampa, I’m also going to bet them for two units on this inflated number.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Rachaad White under 45.5 rushing yards. White had 31 yards on 15 carries last year, and he once again projects poorly against Detroit’s dominant run defense. Bucky Irving may take some work away from White as well. The best number is under 45.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sigh. Every single Lions player who looked iffy for this game will play. Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams and Kerby Joseph are all in, as is D.J. Reader. This injury situation is not nearly as lopsided as I thought, so I will not be betting the Buccaneers. The sharps are all over the Lions. If you still like Tampa, the best line is +7.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Lions are coming off an overtime win, while the Buccaneers are seeking revenge.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.5.

Computer Model: Lions -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Buccaneers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Road Team is 133-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.