2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Seahawks at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

Video of the Week: I’ve posted many Pitch Meeting videos in the past, including the Game of Thrones Season 8 debacle. Well, the guy who made it revisited it:

I really hope they redo Seasons 7 and 8 somehow, even if it’s with CGI. It was such a failure.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When the Patriots’ offensive line committed eight penalties in the final preseason game against Washington’s backups, I never would have imagined that New England would be celebrating a Week 1 victory versus the Bengals. Yet, that’s exactly what transpired, as the Patriots blasted open huge running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson and kept Joe Burrow off the field.

It’s possible that this was a fluke. The Bengals were not focused at all. However, the Seahawks don’t project to have a great ground defense with Uchenna Nwosu sidelined. There might be an opportunity for Stevenson to thrive again.

Then again, the Seahawks will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage like they did versus the Broncos because they won’t need to respect Jacoby Brissett and his awful receivers. Seattle has the personnel to generate pressure, so Brissett will be hurried often behind his anemic front.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Speaking of pressure, it was a foregone conclusion that the Patriots’ pass rush would be diminished in the wake of the Matthew Judon trade. This turned out to be incorrect, as 2023 second-round pick Keion White stepped up and logged three sacks against Joe Burrow.

Granted, Burrow isn’t protected well, so it remains to be seen if White can continue this level of production. Geno Smith has adequate blocking, and New England will also have to worry about multiple talented receivers instead of just one like the Bengals possessed with Ja’Marr Chase in the wake of Tee Higgins’ absence.

The superior blocking will also open up some big running lanes for Kenneth Walker. Again, this is something that the Patriots didn’t have to concern themselves with last week because the Bengals run block so poorly. The Seahawks are much better in this regard with Connor Williams on the roster. Kenneth Walker will have some nice gains once again, making life much easier for Smith.

RECAP: If the Patriots hadn’t beaten the Bengals, there’s no way they’d be just +3 against the Seahawks. This line would be +4 at the very least. They were +3.5 on the look-ahead spread, so that didn’t factor in Seattle’s impressive showing versus Denver.

You might be wondering why I have that qualifier. The Patriots did beat the Bengals, after all. It’s because that victory was clearly a fluke. The Bengals were looking ahead to the Chiefs and didn’t put forth any effort in that contest. Had they been fully focused, they would have won, likely by double digits. If they had done that, we’d be looking at this game very differently.

I like the Seahawks, but I don’t know how bullish we should be about them either. They have a new head coach, so they’re difficult to evaluate at the moment. I know they won convincingly, but I considered the Broncos to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, so I didn’t put much stock into that game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Any consideration of betting the Seahawks is gone now that this line moved to -3.5. That’s the worst line in football because so many games are decided by three. Also, Kenneth Walker missed Wednesday’s practice, which is not ideal (though it’s not a deal-breaker either.)

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread keeps ping ponging between +3 and +3.5. Kenneth Walker has been ruled out, but that’s not a huge deal. I’m more concerned with Uchenna Nwosu, George Fant and potentially Jerome Baker missing this game. The injuries point toward the Patriots, but I’m not going to bet on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The questionable Seattle linebackers will play, so you can bet the Seahawks if you want. I’m going to stay away. There’s been pro money on both Seahawks -3 and Patriots +3.5, so the sharps can’t make up their minds. The best lines are -3 -110 at Bookmaker and +3.5 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.