2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Rams at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If you just had the NBC broadcast on mute and didn’t bother looking at any jersey numbers, you probably wouldn’t have realized that the Rams were dealing with major injury issues. They entered the game without their two starting tackles and eventually lost two more offensive linemen, as well as Puka Nacua. All hope should have been lost, but Matthew Stafford was able to inexplicably overcome these departures and still nearly lead the Rams to victory.

It’s unclear who will play for the Rams among those unavailable Sunday night, save for Nacua, who was placed on injured reserve, and Alaric Jackson, who is suspended for one more game. However, it doesn’t seem like the Rams will need all hands on deck for this matchup because of how anemic Arizona’s defense is. The Cardinals can’t pressure the quarterback at all, while their cornerbacks are among the league’s worst. Stafford won’t have any sort of problem versus Arizona, especially if he gets Rob Havenstein back from injury.

The Cardinals also aren’t very good at defending the run. James Cook ripped off some big runs against Arizona last week, which just shouldn’t happen. Kyren Williams obviously poses a much greater threat out of the backfield than Cook, so the Cardinals will surrender chunks of yardage to him.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals were able to stay competitive with the Bills last week, as Kyler Murray was able to make some timely throws and run for significant yardage. This was a positive matchup for Murray, as he was able to battle a Buffalo defense missing significant talent in the middle of the field.

The Rams have similar issues. They traded Ernest Jones, which has created a massive void in the middle of the field. Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder really struggled in the opener, so this is something Murray will be able to exploit via runs or throws to James Conner and Trey McBride.

I’m sure Murray will want to involve Marvin Harrison Jr. much more than he did last week, as Harrison was nearly blanked in the stat box. There should be an opportunity, given that top cornerback Darious Williams is sidelined. Jameson Williams just went off on the Rams, so Harrison could rebound.

RECAP: The NFC West is a funny division. There’s a rock-paper-scissors dynamic between the teams, where Team A always beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, but Team C always beats Team A. I just described rock, paper, scissors to you, as if you’ve never heard of it.

Sean McVay owns the Cardinals. He’s 14-2 against them, including a sweep last year. Perhaps Aaron Donald was the primary reason for this, but the Rams still can get after the quarterback well and bother Murray. It could also be that their receivers have been too much for Arizona’s perennially poor secondary to handle.

Either way, I expect the Rams to win this game. We’re getting nice value with them, too. The Rams were -2.5 on the advance line, yet they’re now underdogs for some reason. I don’t know what happened to prompt this 3.5-point swing, but I’m not complaining.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams lost Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila to IR, but Rob Havenstein was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Getting him back would be important, though it’s worth noting that the Cardinals don’t have any sort of pass rush. Also, Kyler Murray popped onto the injury report with a knee. He practiced fully, but I thought that was interesting.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams received some great news, as Rob Havenstein doesn’t have an injury designation. His return will be huge. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray doesn’t have an injury designation either, but it’s still odd that he popped up on the injury report randomly. It reminds me of Joe Burrow popping up on the injury report last week and clearly not being 100 percent. If Murray is banged up, the Cardinals don’t have much of a chance against a team that has dominated them. I’m bumping this to three units.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Kyren Williams over 73.5 rushing yards. Williams rushed for more than 145 yards in both meetings against Arizona last year. The Cardinals are dreadful against the run, and should get gashed once again. The best number is over 73.5 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is now pick ’em. It wouldn’t surprise me if the sharps jumped on the Rams and made them favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Rams, who are now favored. The best line is -1 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

ALT. LINE BET: I’m betting the Rams -5.5. They’ve dominated the Cardinals, and their games haven’t been close, so I think they can win by six or more. The best line is -5.5 +186 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Rams -2.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 64% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Rams have won 14 of the last 16 meetings.

Cardinals are 47-33 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.