2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Giants at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I certainly wasn’t bullish on Jayden Daniels’ chances last week. Daniels had a great matchup by just the numbers because Tampa Bay struggled against the pass in 2023. However, the Buccaneers have been stellar versus mobile quarterbacks over the years, so Daniels was predictably contained fairly well until garbage time.

Daniels will be much better this week. The Giants have some major liabilities in their defense, particularly their secondary. While the Buccaneers have some talents in their defensive backfield – namely Antoine Winfield Jr. – New York has absolutely nothing. Quite literally nothing. The Giants’ best cornerback is Adoree Jackson, and he’s a decrepit player at this stage of his career. Terry McLaurin, who was limited very well in the opener, will have a much easier time getting open in Week 2.

The Giants aren’t very good against the run either. They’re better at stopping the rush by default, but they can certainly be beaten on the ground. Brian Robinson had a tough time finding running room against Tampa Bay’s perennially great ground defense, but he’ll have far more success against the Giants.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s hard to say if the Giants’ offense or defense was worse in the opener. While New York couldn’t stop an offense led by Sam Darnold, the Giants couldn’t produce any points either. The issues with the offensive line persisted, as Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor were the only players who were capable of blocking. Daniel Jones, as a result, continued to be a complete disaster.

This looks like a great matchup for Jones on paper. Like the Giants, the Redskins can’t cover anyone, while their pass rush is rather lackluster. One thing to note is that while the Redskins don’t have anything as far as edge-rushing talent is concerned, they at least have Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen in the interior. Those two defensive tackles have a huge mismatch in their favor versus New York’s anemic interior offensive linemen.

Speaking of the Giants’ interior blockers, there won’t be any running game to speak of for New York. The Redskins are much better versus the run than the pass, so they shouldn’t have any sort of issue containing Devin Singletary.

RECAP: Both the Giants and Redskins were blown out in their openers, but there was a stark contrast between the two games. The Giants gave their fans no hope, as Jones continued to play horrendously. The Redskins, conversely, had flashes of brilliance on occasion from Daniels. He made some mistakes, but this was to be expected in a tough matchup.

Daniels has a much easier matchup in this game, so the Redskins appear to be the correct side. However, I’m not going to be running up to the ticket window to bet them as a favorite. There are many superior betting opportunities this week, so I’ll pass on this game from a wagering perspective.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We have a big public-sharp dichotomy here, with the Joes betting the Redskins and the pros on the Giants. I get the argument for the latter, but both sides look unappealing to me.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this a lot, and I’ve talked myself into betting the Giants. This seems like such a trap, with the Redskins “only” being favored by 1.5 points. They’re one of the highest-bet teams of the week, yet the line isn’t moving anywhere. Vegas is begging people to bet the Redskins. And yet, the Giants have owned the Redskins over the years. They crushed them as nine-point dogs last season. Washington’s defense is horrendous and won’t be able to stop anyone, even Daniel Jones. Brian Burns, meanwhile, has a great matchup here after being neutralized by Christian Darrisaw last week.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Terry McLaurin over 48.5 receiving yards. McLaurin did nothing last week, but I like him to bounce back against a Giants secondary that is horrible. I think the Redskins will be behind, so they’ll have to throw more than they’d like. The best number is over 48.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER: Packers +8.5, Giants +7.5 -120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. I still really like the Giants. The best line is +1.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Money pouring in on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 71% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 35 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Redskins are 11-26 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 80 degrees. Light wind.