2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Bills at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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Week 1 Analysis: The good news is that we had a winning week to start off the year (+$325), thanks to our successful NFL Pick of the Month. The bad news is that we suffered a brutal beat in the Titans-Bears game. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chiefs, 4 units (win): A nice way to start the season. John Harbaugh nearly gave me a heart attack when he called for two at the end. Luckily, Isaiah Likely was out of bounds. As a bonus, we hit our same-game parlay.

Panthers, 4 units (loss): Bryce Young is actually that bad. Wow. The Panthers made some great upgrades this offseason, yet none of it mattered.

Bengals, 3 units (loss): I’m never betting Joe Burrow in Weeks 1-2 ever again. What a complete no-show.

Titans, 5 units (loss): This was a bad beat for the ages. The Titans almost doubled the Bears in yards. They had a 17-0 lead as four-point underdogs. A blocked punt and several turnovers allowed the Bears to cover. All Will Levis had to do in the fourth quarter was hand the ball off to Tony Pollard, and the Titans would have won, but no. He had to be the hero for some reason even though his team was ahead. This was a painful loss, as a cover here would’ve allowed us to go +$1,365 on the week.

Cardinals, 8 units (win): The Cardinals blew a 17-3 lead and nearly failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. A bad beat here would have prompted another rant.

Raiders, 4 units (loss): What is it with quarterbacks committing turnovers while ahead? Gardner Minshew did this as well. The Raiders were winning for most of the game, yet somehow lost 22-10. I wouldn’t call this a bad beat, but it was a frustrating result.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: So far, so good with Josh Allen and his new receiving corps. Allen misfired on just five occasions in the opening-week victory against the Cardinals, as he showed some nice rapport with rookie Keon Coleman.

However, it’s difficult to take this result completely seriously because the Cardinals don’t have a functional secondary. They have one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL, so Allen’s positive performance was expected. Things will be much tougher against Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins, who bring much more of a pass rush than Arizona does. Also, Allen injured his non-throwing wrist toward the end of that game, so we don’t know how much that will impact him.

If Allen is hindered at all by the injury, he’ll wish he had a strong rushing attack he could utilize besides what he provides. The Bills are lacking in this department, and it’s not like they have a positive matchup in this regard. The Dolphins clamped down on Travis Etienne rather well last week, so they should be able to handle James Cook.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I expressed concern with the Bills on this side of the ball as well. While Allen’s chemistry with the receivers is something that could be resolved in the coming weeks, the team’s inability to defend the middle of the field will linger all season because Matt Milano is out until at least December. The safety play is also not very ideal, as Damar Hamlin is seeing far too many snaps.

Mike McDaniel is an offensive mastermind, so he’ll be able to scheme his players open against the holes in Buffalo’s defense. The Bills have talented cornerbacks, but Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford won’t be able to save the Bills from being exploited in their weak areas. Plus, it’s not like any corner can be counted on to stopping Tyreek Hill, assuming there’s no assistance from traffic cops.

The Bills at least won’t have to worry about Miami’s rushing attack like it needed to a year ago. This is an area in which the Dolphins have gotten worse. They lost their two best run-blocking linemen, Connor Williams and Robert Hunt, to the Seahawks and Panthers, respectively, so it wasn’t a surprise that they couldn’t get much going on the ground with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert versus the Jaguars.

RECAP: There are a couple of reasons I’m going to back the Dolphins in this game. The first is that the Bills are a team in flux at the moment. Allen still needs to gel with his new receiving corps, and I’m not convinced that one game against a horrendous Arizona secondary did the trick. There’s also the problem with the middle of the defense. Milano’s absence will continue to be huge, while the safety play is going to be lackluster.

The second reason is that Allen may not be 100 percent. As mentioned earlier, he injured his non-throwing wrist late in the Arizona game. Maybe it won’t bother him at all, but it’s possible that this issue could affect Allen in some way.

Regardless, this is not a game I envision myself betting highly, but I will wager on it, as the prospect of fading a public dog like Buffalo is very appealing. I’ll be on the Dolphins for a couple of units at the very most.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills are missing two key players. Matt Milano, of course, is on injured reserve, but Taron Johnson is a new addition to the injury report. Johnson’s absence will really hurt against Miami’s all-star receiving corps. There’s some concern with De’Von Achane sidelined, but running backs are overrated, so his absence wouldn’t move the needle for me. I still plan on betting two units on the Dolphins.

PLAYER PROP BET: I like James Cook’s over receiving yards. Cook has gone over the posted total (17.5) in six of his 10 games since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey. Nine of those games occurred with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the field, so Josh Allen will rely on Cook more as a pass-catcher. He had 33 receiving yards in the opener, so he should be able to clear 17.5 easily. The best number is over 17.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to throw Cook over receiving yards into a parlay comprised of the following three legs: Tyreek Hill over 96.5 receiving yards, Tua Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards, and Dalton Kincaid over 4.5 receptions. Tagovailoa and Hill project well against a Buffalo defense missing lots of personnel. Kincaid did nothing last week, but this should be a get-right game for him. He played 90 percent of the snaps, so his production should go back to normal. This $25 parlay pays $212.50 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only injury we were waiting on was De’Von Achane. He’ll play, so the Dolphins look good. Everything I’ve heard today is how great the Bills have been against Miami recently, but that was a Buffalo team with Stefon Diggs, Matt Milano, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, and Taron Johnson. All of those guys are gone or injured. Josh Allen may also be affected by his wrist. The sharps have a slight lean on the Dolphins, but nothing major. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.

Computer Model: Bills -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 55% (402,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills have won 17 of the last 22 meetings.

Bills are 30-44 ATS in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 83 degrees. Light wind.