2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Steelers at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Jace is on the Case!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos had a crucial injury situation with Garett Bolles. The inconsistent but talented left tackle suffered an injury in the opener and had to get an MRI. Luckily for the Broncos, Bolles received positive news, so there’s a good possibility that he’ll be able to play in this game. It’s safe to say that he’ll be needed against T.J. Watt, who obliterated the Falcons last week.

You’d think that Watt would also make rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s life a living hell, but I’m not sure how much of an impact he’ll have in this game. That may sound crazy to say, but Nix is the ultimate checkdown artist. He’ll simply get rid of the ball before Watt can get close to him on most occasions, especially of Bolles is there to protect his blind side.

Don’t get me wrong, however. This is not a recipe for success. Any sort of negative play will automatically ruin Denver’s drives, especially when considering that the running game won’t produce much. The Steelers just limited Bijan Robinson to 68 rushing yards on 18 carries, so they shouldn’t have any sort of issues restricting Javonte Williams.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While Pittsburgh’s run defense figures to thrive again, I can’t say the same thing about the Broncos. Josey Jewell’s departure has made Denver’s ground defense far worse than it was last year. Kenneth Walker was able to easily trample over the Broncos en route to an easy victory.

I’d expect similar success from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The duo has thrived in the past when faced with easier matchups, and I’d qualify this as such. The Broncos’ downgraded linebacking corps will also have to worry about Justin Fields’ scrambling ability.

Fields’ passing, on the other hand, is not too much of a worry. Fields isn’t great at airing the ball out to begin with, and his only viable threat, George Pickens, will see coverage from the terrific Patrick Surtain II.

RECAP: Something I like to do is fade rookie quarterbacks against great defensive-minded coaches. We have that dynamic in this game. Nix will be going up against Mike Tomlin, which is a colossal mismatch in the coach’s favor.

Generally, backing Tomlin is best when he’s an underdog. You also want to fade Tomlin as a big favorite. But what about a small favorite of -3 or less? Those situations have given us a reasonable outcome, as Tomlin is 30-26 against the spread as a favorite of -3 or less, whereas he’s 63-75 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

As long as this number is -3 or less, I’ll be on the Steelers. Having them cover -3.5 is a tough ask with a putrid offense, but I think -3 is doable. Granted, it’s probably most likely that this is a push on a three-point Pittsburgh win in a miserable defensive grinder, so I won’t be betting this game, barring some surprising injury news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +3, dropping the line to +2.5. Despite this, Garett Bolles missed Wednesday’s practice. Weird!

SATURDAY NOTES: Garett Bolles has no injury designation. I have nothing new to add to this game otherwise. This is still a slight lean to the Steelers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no interest here. On our NFL Picks YouTube show, Tom made a case for Denver.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +3, but not at +2.5, so keep that in mind you want to wager on Denver. The best number for the Broncos is +3 -118 at DraftKings. If you like the Steelers, the best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 14-30 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Broncos are 34-17 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Sean Payton is 3-17 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Light wind.