2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Colts at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The NFL’s idiotic decision to play a game in Brazil hurt the Packers, as “No Cookie” Jordan Love suffered an injury on the antepenultimate play of the game, thanks to third-world turf. Though the Packers dodged a bullet with Love not needing to be placed on injured reserve, he’ll still miss this game.

Malik Willis will start, which is far from ideal. However, Willis will be coached at a much higher level in Green Bay than he was in Tennessee, and he’ll also have a much better receiving corps. Green Bay’s young receivers all appear to have developed, so they’ll be able to get open against an Indianapolis secondary that isn’t very good.

Josh Jacobs, conversely, may not have as much success. Joe Mixon just had a huge performance versus the Colts, but Indianapolis has quality personnel to contain the rush. The Colts had to give C.J. Stroud and all of his talented receivers far too much respect, which they obviously won’t need to do against Willis.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts produced 27 points against the Texans last week, but the output could have been so much greater. Anthony Richardson missed several downfield throws, including two potential touchdowns to Adonai Mitchell. Had he connected on them, it’s likely that Indianapolis would have prevailed.

Then again, it’s not like we can count on Richardson to rectify these errors. He’s a raw passer, after all. He’ll at least have an opportunity to shred Green Bay’s secondary, which is far less potent now that Jaire Alexander is washed up. Alexander was horrible against the Eagles. Granted, he had a very difficult matchup, but he’s been in a downward trend for some time.

The Colts can at least make up for it by establishing Jonathan Taylor. While Taylor didn’t perform well last week, he’s set to rebound against the Packers, who have struggled against the run for quite some time.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles in NFL handicapping is to wager on backup quarterbacks playing for good teams unless they’re battling a top-12 defense. We have that situation here, as Willis is set to square off against Indianapolis. The Colts have a decent defense, but their shaky cornerback play will keep them out of the top third of the league.

I know it’s difficult to stomach the prospect of betting Willis, but there’s usually great value with these backup quarterbacks. This line moved from Green Bay -4.5 to +3.5 (currently -119 at Bookmaker), which is absurd. No player is worth eight points on his own, especially on a good team. Backup quarterbacks versus non-top 12 teams are 28-17 against the spread in the past several seasons. Willis will be coached up by Matt LaFleur, so I have confidence that he’ll be somewhat competent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I understand the concern with betting on Malik Willis. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the NFL yet. However, he’ll be coached up by Matt LaFleur, and regardless, Willis is 2-1 against the spread in his three starts! He almost beat the Chiefs as a double-digit underdog on national TV. The Packers will be fine in this game.

LOCKED IN: The sharps have pounded the Packers down to +2.5 in most books. This might be because of DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye missing practice all week. You can still get +3 for -115 at DraftKings, -119 at Bookmaker, and -120 at FanDuel. I’m going to lock in the +3 -115 before all the +3s disappear. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can see why the sharps pounded the Packers down to +2.5. DeForest Buckner didn’t log a single practice all week. Kwity Paye barely practiced. JuJu Brents, the team’s top cornerback, landed on injured reserve. Julian Blackmon is out. The Colts are way too injured to be favored on the road against a decent opponent.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Josh Jacobs over 62.5 rushing yards. Jacobs had 84 rushing yards in a very difficult matchup last week, so he can certainly exceed that figure versus the Colts, who were just gashed by Joe Mixon. Indianapolis has some injured personnel on the defensive line, and I expect Green Bay to perform at a very high level to rally around Malik Willis. The best number is over 62.5 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Another injury bummer, as both DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye will play, though they may not be 100 percent. The Colts are still without some key members of their secondary as well. The sharps pounded the Packers at +3. There is still one viable +3 out there for -118 vig at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Packers will be playing at a high level for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 61% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Matt LaFleur is 49-35 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.