2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: 49ers at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We perhaps saw evidence Monday night that running back is the most overrated position in football. Despite how brilliant Christian McCaffrey is, the 49ers didn’t skip a beat offensively with Jordan Mason in the backfield. Mason was excellent, allowing the 49ers to control the ball for 25 of the first 37 minutes of the game.

It’s unclear if McCaffrey will return for this game. Whomever the 49ers deploy at running back will have a tougher time against a Minnesota defense that made several upgrades this offseason. Granted, stopping the 49ers’ ground attack is no easy feat, but the Vikings will do better against it than the Jets did.

What I worry more about the Vikings is their ability to defend the pass. Their secondary has some holes that can be exploited. Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t even at full strength in the opener, so he’ll be more of a factor in his second game.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Though the Jets were blown out, Aaron Rodgers had success moving the chains on numerous occasions. The Jets sabotaged themselves with some turnovers, but they at least showed that there are some areas in which San Francisco can be beaten.

Breece Hall was able to exploit the middle of the defense, which was missing Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga from a year ago. Perhaps the latter will return from injury this week, but Aaron Jones at least projects well in this game. Justin Jefferson will also thrive because of his raw talent.

Sam Darnold will have an opportunity to connect with Jefferson and his other receivers because of his strong pass protection. The Vikings block extremely well, so Darnold won’t be under siege very often despite the 49ers possessing great pass-rushing talent in their front seven.

RECAP: I’d like to fade an overreaction in this game, but both teams are coming off blowout wins. Of course, all blowout wins aren’t created equally. I don’t think people are rushing to vault the Vikings up their power rankings because they beat the Giants. Defeating a team quarterbacked by Daniel Jones is no impressive feat, no matter the score.

The 49ers, on the other hand, looked great in their Monday night victory over the Jets. This has caused the spread to move from -5.5 to -6. I don’t think this is warranted, especially off a short week in which the 49ers have to travel halfway across the country. And though I belittled the Vikings’ blowout win over the Giants, they can be considered an underrated team. They have a quality offensive line, great offensive play-makers, and underrated defenders. Plus, they’re coached well. They can pull the upset here if the 49ers are the least bit distracted in the wake of their dominant performance against the Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have gotten on the Vikings and dropped the line to +5.5 at many locations. I thought about locking in +6, but I don’t like seeing Andrew Van Ginkel DNP in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey is out, which almost seems irrelevant. The Vikings have some banged-up players as well. Jordan Addison is out, while Harrison Smith, Brian O’Neill and Ed Ingram are all questionable. The Vikings still look somewhat appealing unless two or more of those players are ruled out Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The questionable Vikings will play, so the only injury for Minnesota is Jordan Addison. I still like the Vikings a bit, wnd the sharps are on that side as well. The pros are betting Minnesota aggressively. The best line is +4.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout victory on national TV and are traveling far on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Decent lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Brock Purdy is 21-4 SU, 15-10 ATS.

Vikings are 43-36 ATS at home since 2014 (12-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.