2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Chargers at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 1-2 ATS in Week 1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Steelers +3

Packers +2.5

Ravens +3

All underdogs!? What’s happening here?

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -9.5

Texans -6.5

Chargers -6.5

Cowboys -6.5

Eagles -6.5

Ah, we’re back to normal. The public loves big favorites again, and all is right with the world.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Of all the results last week, the 47-10 Panthers loss to the Saints was the most surprising to me. That may sound strange if you’re reading this site for the first time, but I’ve been pounding the Carolina drum all offseason. The Panthers did a great job of finding offensive line upgrades, acquiring better receivers, and giving Bryce Young better coaching. And yet, none of it mattered.

I was most interested in digging into the Panthers’ breakdown to see if Young’s new supporting cast failed him, but that wasn’t the case. The offensive line largely played well. Diontae Johnson got open. Young just sucked. He really, really, really sucked.

Dave Canales is the ultimate quarterback whisperer, so perhaps he’ll be able to fix some things now that he has a game under his belt. At the very least, the Panthers offense can help negate the strength of the Chargers, which is the pass rush, so Young will have some time in the pocket versus a secondary that has some liabilities. There should also be an opportunity to Chuba Hubbard to be established against a defense that projects to be soft up the middle.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Panthers supposedly improved the offensive side of the ball, they sacrificed a big part of their defense. That would be Brian Burns, who was shipped off to the Giants. As a result, the pass rush was horrendous against the Saints. Carolina had just three pressures all game, and that was with Derrick Brown, who will now be sidelined.

The Chargers have an improved offensive line, so they’ll be able to keep Justin Herbert clean. This doesn’t mean that Herbert will have a great game, however. Herbert is not healthy because of his plantar fascia, while his receiving corps is rather lackluster.

Herbert will at least be able to lean on J.K. Dobbins. Despite coming off a torn Achilles, Dobbins looked like his former, explosive self in the opener. The Panthers had issues stopping Alvin Kamara, so Dobbins figures to have a big game.

RECAP: I can’t believe how bad the Panthers were. Despite all the upgrades they made, which I detailed earlier in this pick capsule, they were completely embarrassed in New Orleans. That 47-10 result was absolutely shocking. Maybe Young simply cannot be salvaged.

Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m going back to the Panthers. I refuse to believe that all of these upgrades mean nothing. And as bad as the Panthers were last year, they still had some solid performances, particularly at home. They lost by three to the Saints and Packers, they beat the Falcons, and they were two nullified touchdowns away from beating the Buccaneers by five. They were blown out by some of the better teams, but I don’t consider the Chargers to be one of the better teams. Herbert is not 100 percent, and the play-makers around him are lackluster at best.

I love fading overreactions in Week 2, and this has to be one of them. The Panthers were +3.5 on the look ahead, and now they’re +6.5. The spread moving three points through a key number is an absurd overreaction. It’d be one thing if the Chargers were a good team with a healthy quarterback, but they’re not. I like Carolina quite a bit here, though I’m prepared to once again look foolish for betting on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Panthers at +6.5. I was hoping we’d see a +7, but that wasn’t meant to be. I considered moving this down to two units, but I’m going to remain stubborn and keep my three-unit wager on Carolina. It felt like I was on an island on our picks video, so I’m glad to see that the sharps agree with me, at least at +6.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I considered dropping my unit count to two because the sharps took this line off +6.5 and +6 down to +5. However, I’m keeping this at three units because the Chargers have so many injuries. Joey Bosa doesn’t look like he’ll go, and neither does Joshua Palmer. Alohi Gilman and Ja’Sir Taylor, two key members of the secondary, figure to be sidelined as well. The Panthers have some questions with a couple of offensive linemen – Taylor Moton, Damien Lewis – but they both practiced Friday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa is active, which is a bummer. I’m going to decrease the unit count to two as a result, though the sharps are still on Carolina, at least at +6. The best +6 line is +6 -122 at Bookmaker. Given how important six is, I’m going to pay up for that number. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 77% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Justin Herbert is 12-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 75 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.