2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Browns at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns had a completely dysfunctional offense to open the season. This was predictable right before kickoff when Jack Conklin was ruled out. Jedrick Wills was already set to miss the game, so Cleveland simply couldn’t pass protect against Micah Parsons and company without its starting tackles.

One of Wills or Conklin will be needed for this game because Jacksonville can bring tons of pressure with Josh Allen and Trevon Walker. If Deshaun Watson has superior protection this week, he’ll certainly be able to rebound, despite David Njoku’s projected absence. This is because the Jacksonville secondary, which was already a disaster, will be missing top cornerback Tyson Campbell.

The Jaguars can at least handle the run well. They limited De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert on the ground last week, so they’ll be able to restrict Jerome Ford from doing much.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Browns can hope that their pass protection improves with players returning to action, the Jaguars don’t have the same luxury. They have some talented blockers up front, but they also have some major liabilities, notably with Anton Harrison, who was dreadful in the opener.

I don’t need to tell you that poor blocking can be crushing against a defensive front spearheaded by Myles Garrett. Trevor Lawrence will certainly face ample pressure in this game, so the Jaguars won’t have a consistent offensive attack.

It won’t help Lawrence’s cause that he won’t be able to lean on the run. The Browns had the No. 1 ground defense in the NFL last year, so they’ll be able to limit Travis Etienne, who will need to avoid another crushing fumble this week.

RECAP: I think I will be betting the Browns. As I’ve stated earlier, I love fading Week 1 overreactions. Cleveland was blown out by the Cowboys at home, so it has gotten so much negativity from everyone over the past 48 hours. Cleveland was +2 on the advance line, and now it’s up to +3.

The thing is, the blowout was predictable when factoring in the offensive line injuries. When Conklin was ruled out prior to kickoff, I immediately backed out of my projected three-unit bet because Wills was also sidelined. The Browns didn’t stand a chance against Dallas’ edge rush without their two starting tackles. If only one of them returns, you have to like the Browns a lot more in this game. Watson will have much more time in the pocket in this game, so he’ll be able to locate his receivers against an already-poor secondary missing its top cornerback.

Conversely, if both Wills and Conklin are out again, I’ll side with the Jaguars and potentially bet them. I’ll be monitoring the injury report carefully, so check back later for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jedrick Willis was DNP on Wednesday. Jack Conklin was limited, but he was limited last week as well. I’m looking forward to the final injury report to see if the Cleveland tackles will be available.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping the Browns would have one of their tackles back against Josh Allen and Travon Walker. That may not happen. Jedrick Wills was ruled out again, while Jack Conklin was limited all week, just like he was ahead of Week 1. Also, Juan Thornhill landed on injured reserve. If Conklin is ruled out on Sunday, I may bet on the Jaguars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I would bet the Jaguars if both Cleveland tackles were out, and that’s exactly the case. Jack Conklin is inactive once again, so I’m switching and betting Jacksonville. The best line is -3 -113 at BetRivers. There’s no sharp money to speak of here. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

ONE MORE THING: Evan Engram is a late scratch. This doesn’t move the needle for me because Trevor Lawrence has so many weapons.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

A decent lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 71% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 61-106 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 15-29 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Likely rain, 83 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.