2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Broncos at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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Week 15 Analysis: We had a nice rebound in Week 15. It was good, but not great, but it could have easily been great. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

49ers, 3 units (loss): I vowed to be better after a dreadful Week 14, and I immediately made an idiotic pick. I did much more evaluation after this selection, and I liked the results.

Redskins, 4 units (loss): This was a bad beat, and a truly awful beat if you had -7 because the NFL admitted that they made a mistake at the end where the Saints should have run out of time before throwing their final touchdown. The Redskins were up 17-0 and just stopped scoring. They committed so many dumb defensive penalties to set up scores for New Orleans. For example, they forced the Saints into a punt, but an illegal-hands-to-the-face penalty gave the Saints a free first down. The same thing happened with a roughing-the-passer penalty. Also, the Redskins dropped a touchdown (by Terry McLaurin), missed a field goal, and then dropped an interception that would have preserved the cover. We should have won this one.

Jets, 3 units (win): We got lucky here because if the Jaguars didn’t have three timeouts at the end, the Jets would have settled for a field goal, and we would have just gotten a push. Still, it was nice to get a little luck on our side for once.

Colts, 3 units (loss): OK, what the hell? The Colts, as 4.5-point dogs, were up 13-7. They scored a touchdown to go up 20-7 in the third quarter. Except, their idiot running back dropped the ball before crossing the goal line, negating the touchdown. And then, the Colts still had possession, up 13-7, but Michael Pittman Jr. lost a fumble to give the Broncos a score. And then, they ran this stupid trick play where their receiver threw a pick-six. It was difficult to stomach this loss. The Colts outgained the Broncos, 310-193, and they averaged 1.1 more yards per play. Denver had no business covering the -4.5, let alone winning outright.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): We had a scare in this game when Kyler Murray left the game with an injury in the third quarter, but he returned after missing a few snaps.

Packers, 3 units (win): It wa nice to have a pick that was never in doubt!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: If you’re wondering why the Chargers failed to do anything offensively against the Buccaneers once establishing a 17-10 lead, Justin Herbert’s ankle injury would explain it. Herbert tweaked his ankle against the Buccaneers and didn’t look quite right after that. He’s expected to be limited in practice this week, although this is a limited work week anyway, due to the NFL’s asinine decision to have its workforce play games on just three days of rest.

Herbert would normally have a tough matchup, but the Broncos have injury issues of their own. They were already missing No. 2 cornerback Riley Moss. They could be down Patrick Surtain II as well. He also got hurt this past Sunday. He left the game and then returned, but got hurt again. It might be tough for him to play on such a short week, which means Denver might be down its top two cornerbacks. If Herbert’s ankle feels better, he’ll be able to take full advantage of this like Jameis Winston did with Moss’ absence in a recent Monday night affair.

Herbert will have to be on point in this game because it’s not like he’ll be able to lean on the run. That would have been possible with J.K. Dobbins, but Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal aren’t providing any explosive plays at the position.

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix threw three touchdowns last week, but he did not play well. He was also responsible for three interceptions, and he wasn’t putting up any points until the Colts began self-destructing.

The Chargers usually have an excellent defense, so Nix will face similar difficulties in this contest. It didn’t seem as though the Chargers had a strong defense last week, but they may have been distracted with a Thursday game on the horizon. I have to believe that their secondary will perform better this week.

The Chargers’ ability to stop the run may also improve, but that would depend on Denzel Perryman’s availability. San Angeles’ once-solid run defense has vanished because of Perryman’s absence. Perryman seemed like he was close to playing last week, however, so perhaps he’ll make his return for this big game.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I imagine most may think that these teams or even, or perhaps the Broncos are slightly superior. After all, most of the public money is on Denver, which has the better record. I do not think the public is correct, however. The Broncos are perhaps the most overrated team in the NFL. They’re 9-5, and yet most of their wins have been against bad teams.

I will reference this multiple times this week, so I’ll explain it now: I’ve divided all of the NFL teams into five groups: Groups A through F. Group A is comprised of the elite teams, while Group F is for the worst teams. Six of Denver’s nine wins have come against Groups D and F. Their other three wins have come against Group C: Buccaneers, Jets, and Colts. In those games, the Buccaneers were flat off their revenge game against the Lions; the Jets were looking ahead to flying to London to take on the Vikings; and the Colts shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, all while outgaining the Broncos by more than 100 total yards and 1.1 yards per play.

I have the Broncos in Group C and the Chargers in Group B. The Chargers are coming off a dreadful game against the Buccaneers, but I believe they were looking ahead to this contest. I love getting a good team off an embarrassing defeat, and it’s great that Jim Harbaugh is 11-4 against the spread off a loss if you exclude 2014 when he had one foot out the door in San Francisco.

Despite what happened last week, this spread hasn’t moved off -3. This is Vegas begging for the public to back the Broncos. Yet, the Chargers seem like such an obvious play. I’ll be on them heavily. assuming that Herbert doesn’t look like he’ll be severely hampered by his ankle injury.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert’s ankle continues to be a concern for me. He was limited on Tuesday, but practiced fully on Wednesday. I don’t know what to make of it, and I’m concerned enough to not bet the Chargers heavily. I also don’t like that the Chargers will be missing a couple of secondary players in Cam Hart and Elijah Molden sidelined, though the Broncos won’t have Riley Moss. The sharps are on Denver. I’m going to drop the unit count to two.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Courtland Sutton’s over receiving yards. Sutton is the only reliable receiver in Denver’s offense, and the Chargers, who allow plenty of production to No. 1 receivers, have two injuries in their secondary. The best number is over 62.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Sutton over receiving yards prop with Ladd McConkey over receiving yards, Javonte Williams over receiving yards, and Stone Smartt over receiving yards. The Broncos have issues defending slot receivers and tight ends, so I like McConkey and Smartt. Meanwhile, Jaleel McLaughlin is out, so Williams will handle all the receiving work out of the backfield. This $25 parlay pays $259.63 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey and Denzel Perryman are both active, which is huge. I would like the Chargers for much more than two units, but we don’t know how Justin Herbert’s ankle will be. The sharps are on both sides of this game, taking the Broncos at +3 and the Chargers at -2.5. The best line is -2.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (209,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Sean Payton is 14-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Jim Harbaugh is 11-4 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.