2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Buccaneers at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: If Baker Mayfield was told that he would be taking on a tough Chargers defense last week, he may not trust that person ever again. Mayfield had an easy time throwing on the Chargers, especially when targeting Mike Evans, who had a monstrous game.

Mayfield projects to have a tougher matchup this week. The Cowboys struggled in all regards on the defensive side of the ball during the middle of the season, but things changed when Micah Parsons returned to action. Parsons absolutely dominated the Carolina tackles last week, and it’s not like the Panthers are poor at the position. The Buccaneers have quality tackles as well, but Parsons can overcome the matchup.

The Buccaneers can counter this by establishing the rush. Their run blocking has improved as the season has progressed, and Bucky Irving looked healthy last week. The Cowboys have been poor against the run, so Irving’s great running will keep the pressure off Mayfield.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys also struggled offensively for a long stretch, but that hasn’t been the case the past two weeks. Cooper Rush has performed well, averaging 25 points in his previous two contests. The Buccaneers don’t have the best talent at cornerback, so some might expect him to continue to thrive.

I wouldn’t be bullish about his chances. Rush has gone against two of the worst defenses in the NFL when he took on the Bengals and Panthers. While the Buccaneers have some issues, they also have Todd Bowles, who tends to dismantle bad or young quarterbacks. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, Tommy DeVito, and most recently, Aidan O’Connell. In those nine games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.3 points, and they’re 7-2 straight up and against the spread.

Rush won’t be able to turn to Rico Dowdle either. The Buccaneers are one of the best teams when it comes to stopping the run, so Dowdle won’t run nearly as well as he’s been able to the past two weeks.

RECAP: The primary angle here is that the Cowboys have Rush, and the Buccaneers have Bowles, who often debacles bad and young quarterbacks. Tampa Bay’s defense can be leaky otherwise, but it’s often a great unit versus the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. As stated earlier, the Buccaneers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread against bad quarterbacks dating back to the beginning of 2023.

I’m going to side with the Buccaneers for that reason, but I don’t love this spread. This line is a bit too high, but the matchup favors the Buccaneers too much for me to not side with them. I also have to point out that the Cowboys are coming off a win, which makes them an automatic fade because bad teams have issues sustaining success.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, and Antoine Winfield all missed Wednesday’s practice, but I wouldn’t read anything into that because the Buccaneers have been resting a bunch of their players early in the practice week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tristan Wirfs will play, while Antonine Winfield will not. I still like the Buccaneers a good deal.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Mike Evans over receiving yards looks most appealing. The Cowboys have given up a ton of yardage to opposing No. 1 outside receivers lately, and Evans has been hot. The best number is over 78.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Evans receiving prop into a parlay at BetMGM, which has a 20-percent profit boost on parlays available right now. The other legs in this parlay will be Jake Ferguson over 36.5 receiving yards, CeeDee Lamb over 73.5 receiving yards, and Rachaad White over 17.5 receiving yards. In addition to struggling against No. 1 receivers, the Cowboys struggle against receiving backs, and White might get more work than usual because Cade Otton is out. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers surrender lots of production to slot receivers and tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $262.50 at BetMGM with the 20-percent boost.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We might be able to get a viable -3.5 later today. Sharp money seems to be coming in on Dallas.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Whatever sharp money appeared to be on the Cowboys is gone. Dallas was eliminated from the playoffs, so it’s difficult to imagine the team being very motivated. The best line is Buccaneers -4 -110 at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Decent action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 141-98 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.